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IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????

edited January 2013 in Area 51
i have been playing on sky for a while now and it seems the hands are not very random anymore......when in tournaments and you are with a smaller stack on the table, whatever you do, withever what hand you have, if you go all in 99% of the time you will lose to the larger stack. This is happening more and more, tonight, twice i went all in, once with AA, someone covered my bet with a 10,2 off suit!!!!!!!!!!!guess what he won with 3 tens.............

In the same tourno, another person went all in with AK suited, was called with 53 off, guess what pair 5's won....
it just seems that this site DOES NOT now have a random software, it seems it wants to reduce the numbers when it feels like.....

ANYONE else feel the same  or is it just me?

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    edited December 2012
    just u and the other cool ppl in area 51
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    edited December 2012
    No, it's not random.

    By that I mean that when you're short-stacked, players who are deeper can and will call you with weak hands. This will happen to you far more often than it happens to them. If you allow yourself to get short-stacked, you will have to survive far more all-ins than deeper players.

    The fact is that everyone loses in tournament play apart from the eventual winner. Some of the players in that tournament run deep but still only ever get their chips in with the best hand. These players are almost always playing badly. They usually do not understand pot odds and complain when their short-stacked shove is called by a player who does understand pot odds. If a player doesn't get their money in with the worst hand sometimes, they need to look at their game.

    Bad beats happen to all players. Bad beats happen to tight players far more often than they happen to loose players.

    Sometimes players complain because they're knocked out by inexperienced players making poor calls. Good players know that this happens sometimes and they're happy to see these weak players win occassionally. If the best player always won, there would be no money in the game.

    However, if you're asking if the random number generator that Sky uses is sufficiently random, then the answer is yes. Sky gain nothing by cheating their customers.
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    Hi chancer
    I can oly +1 to Borin's post m8.
    I was a maths teacher and to put it mildly your sample size is a little small. Why don't you record the +ve and -ve variance when you go all-in but you will need over 100,000 results and even they will be skewed because you may be waiting until you have say 5BB's before going all-in. The big stacks can then call with a wider range and probably have two live cards which may then mean 60:40 equity in your favour but still a good chance for him. There are quite a few factors if you were to try to test if the RNG was fixed but a large sample would be needed. Would you believe that you would then need a sample of samples to further test the RNG as one sample wouldn't be statistically acceptable. And so it goes on..........
    You'd be better off  just saying its not fixed as what would SKY gain?
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    igeige
    edited December 2012
    However, if you're asking if the random number generator that Sky uses is sufficiently random, then the answer is yes. Sky gain nothing by cheating their customers.

    i dont no the answser re the rng or sky cheating their customers. how do you ?
    im not for one minute saying they do just wondering how you know.
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    igeige
    edited December 2012
    thanks for your reply, i understand why they wouldn't do it etc etc,but no one can be 100% sure. its your opinion fair enough, but its not fact. you stated reasons why you think that it would not be done which seems fair enough to me, but once again its only your opinion, anyhow have a good night, rob
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    edited December 2012

    How do I know that Sky gain nothing from cheating their customers?

    Since Sky Poker takes all it's revenue from rake and tournament fees, it would seem obvious that they don't profit financially from arranging for one player to beat another. Also, to do so would put Sky Poker and it's parent company in a very sticky situation if such a scheme were ever uncovered. Unlike other sites, the Sky name is attached to far more than just Poker and undermining confidence in the brand would be extremely detrimental to Sky's commercial interests. Risking the brand image of a multi-billion pound corporation merely to gain a few extra coppers for a particular poker player would obviously be horrendously stupid.

    How do I know that the random number generator is sufficiently random?

    As stated above, Sky would have no motive for it to be otherwise. I also know that Sky's software is independently audited and has been approved by the Alderney Gambling Control Commission.

    While it is theoretically possible that this is all an ellaborate conspiracy to defraud a few poor, gullible poker players, I have to ask what the motive would be and how could they keep it under wraps for so long...



    Mind you, some of that footage of the Apollo missions does look a bit dodgy.

  • Options
    edited December 2012
    Nothing can be proven to be 100% correct. There is no such thing as a scientific certainty. Does that mean that we don't know anything?

    You're right to say that this is my opinion but it's an opinion based upon a reasoned, logical analysis of the available evidence. When people say "it's only your opinion" they generally are inferring that alternative opinions are equally valid. That is not true unless those opinions can be backed up by equally reasoned, logical analysis of the available evidence.

    So unless someone would like to offer such an alternative or point out flaws in my argument, my opinion on this matter - which I know is shared by many, many others - is the only credible one. That's exactly the process by which all scientific knowledge is "discovered".




    (In a few years, after the "Sky Poker RNG swindle" has been uncovered, I'm going to feel pretty silly. lol)
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    In Response to IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    i have been playing on sky for a while now and it seems the hands are not very random anymore......when in tournaments and you are with a smaller stack on the table, whatever you do, withever what hand you have, if you go all in 99% of the time you will lose to the larger stack. This is happening more and more, tonight, twice i went all in, once with AA, someone covered my bet with a 10,2 off suit!!!!!!!!!!!guess what he won with 3 tens............. In the same tourno, another person went all in with AK suited, was called with 53 off, guess what pair 5's won.... it just seems that this site DOES NOT now have a random software, it seems it wants to reduce the numbers when it feels like..... ANYONE else feel the same  or is it just me?
    Posted by thechancer
    Hi chancer,

    I respectfully suggest that the enboldened part is probably an exaggaration.

     
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    Yes, it is random. You just happen to have stumbled across a cluster of unexpected results close together. Clusters like this are perfectly normal, in fact if there were no clusters that would indicate it isn't random.

    For example if you rolled a fair dice 6 million times you would roll each of the numbers 1 to 6 of the very close to 1 million times each, guaranteed. However within that series of 6 million rolls there would be all sorts of seemingly unlikely streaks. For example rolling the same number 5 times in a row is a 1/1296 chance, so you could expect that to happen around 4600 times during the 6 million sequence. Anybody who is around for all 6 million rolls would be satisfied that the dice is random, however someone who just witnesssed a small sample and saw the number 6 get rolled 5 times in a row might think the dice is rigged to roll a 6 most of the time, someone else who came at different time might think it is rigged to roll number 1 most of the time, etc, etc. You only witness a very small sample of the hands dealt on Sky Poker.

    Your memory, and everybody elses, quickly forgets all the times the fool with T3o loses to the pocket AA. However when you see the T3 outdraw your AA (which will happen 1 in every 7.5 times) closely followed by some other seemingly unlikely results you can easily be tricked into thinking results aren't random. In fact the opposite is the case; the existance of these unlikely sequences are what we would expect when the results are random.

    I've played many tens of thousands of hands each on Sky and most of the other well-known poker sites. I've seen all sorts of crazy stuff on all of them, I can assure you that what I see on Sky is no different to what I see elsewhere.
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    In Response to IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    i have been playing on sky for a while now and it seems the hands are not very random anymore......when in tournaments and you are with a smaller stack on the table, whatever you do, withever what hand you have, if you go all in 99% of the time you will lose to the larger stack. This is happening more and more, tonight, twice i went all in, once with AA, someone covered my bet with a 10,2 off suit!!!!!!!!!!!guess what he won with 3 tens............. In the same tourno, another person went all in with AK suited, was called with 53 off, guess what pair 5's won.... it just seems that this site DOES NOT now have a random software, it seems it wants to reduce the numbers when it feels like..... ANYONE else feel the same  or is it just me?
    Posted by thechancer
    Anymore?.......when did you notice the randomness had changed,when you started losing?
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    Nothing can be proven to be 100% correct. There is no such thing as a scientific certainty. Does that mean that we don't know anything? You're right to say that this is my opinion but it's an opinion based upon a reasoned, logical analysis of the available evidence. When people say "it's only your opinion" they generally are inferring that alternative opinions are equally valid. That is not true unless those opinions can be backed up by equally reasoned, logical analysis of the available evidence. So unless someone would like to offer such an alternative or point out flaws in my argument, my opinion on this matter - which I know is shared by many, many others - is the only credible one. That's exactly the process by which all scientific knowledge is "discovered". (In a few years, after the "Sky Poker RNG swindle" has been uncovered, I'm going to feel pretty silly. lol)
    Posted by BorinLoner
    Borin. Sorry but you post also has zero evidence in it whatsoever, it just makes a set of assumptions on why sky wouldn't get involved (which I agree with, but that does not make it objective evidence). The flaw is that you assume in order to be non random someone deliberately needs to make it so. Why?
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    Yes, it is random. You just happen to have stumbled across a cluster of unexpected results close together. Clusters like this are perfectly normal, in fact if there were no clusters that would indicate it isn't random. For example if you rolled a fair dice 6 million times you would roll each of the numbers 1 to 6 of the very close to 1 million times each, guaranteed. However within that series of 6 million rolls there would be all sorts of seemingly unlikely streaks. For example rolling the same number 5 times in a row is a 1/1296 chance, so you could expect that to happen around 4600 times during the 6 million sequence. Anybody who is around for all 6 million rolls would be satisfied that the dice is random, however someone who just witnesssed a small sample and saw the number 6 get rolled 5 times in a row might think the dice is rigged to roll a 6 most of the time, someone else who came at different time might think it is rigged to roll number 1 most of the time, etc, etc. You only witness a very small sample of the hands dealt on Sky Poker. Your memory, and everybody elses, quickly forgets all the times the fool with T3o loses to the pocket AA. However when you see the T3 outdraw your AA (which will happen 1 in every 7.5 times) closely followed by some other seemingly unlikely results you can easily be tricked into thinking results aren't random. In fact the opposite is the case; the existance of these unlikely sequences are what we would expect when the results are random. I've played many tens of thousands of hands each on Sky and most of the other well-known poker sites. I've seen all sorts of crazy stuff on all of them, I can assure you that I see on Sky is no different to what I see elsewhere.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    One of the best analogies & explanations I have ever seen to explain how random works, & how it can appear "non-random" in our minds if we are so inclined.
     
    I suspect the OP who said he gets outdrawn by the big stack "99% of the time" was exaggarating, but it may be that he is just using inadequate sample size. Being outdrawn 10 times in a row is perfectly normal. 99 times out of a 100, much less likely. 
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    Guys

    I didnt want to accuse anyone or anything, i apologise for my wording......

    It just seemd that I have been having a bad time and frustration got the better of me.
    Thank you for your views and explanations
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    How do I know that Sky gain nothing from cheating their customers? Since Sky Poker takes all it's revenue from rake and tournament fees, it would seem obvious that they don't profit financially from arranging for one player to beat another. Also, to do so would put Sky Poker and it's parent company in a very sticky situation if such a scheme were ever uncovered. Unlike other sites, the Sky name is attached to far more than just Poker and undermining confidence in the brand would be extremely detrimental to Sky's commercial interests. Risking the brand image of a multi-billion pound corporation merely to gain a few extra coppers for a particular poker player would obviously be horrendously stupid. How do I know that the random number generator is sufficiently random? As stated above, Sky would have no motive for it to be otherwise. I also know that Sky's software is independently audited and has been approved by the Alderney Gambling Control Commission. While it is theoretically possible that this is all an ellaborate conspiracy to defraud a few poor, gullible poker players, I have to ask what the motive would be and how could they keep it under wraps for so long... Mind you, some of that footage of the Apollo missions does look a bit dodgy.
    Posted by BorinLoner
    just LOL
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    edited December 2012
    I don't know what all the fuss is about with this word! -- random this--that's so random-- ect, ect, ecflopwitcetera---- stranger things can happen than random things, I can tell you!!-----

     Who recommended Orford is what I'd like to know!!!!!
  • Options
    edited December 2012
    Is it fu ck Random it is a total fix
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    edited January 2013
    The RNG is only regulated to the flop no further, that is why there ARE so many turn and river beats
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    edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM?????? : just LOL
    Posted by igimc
    The Alderney Gambling Control Commission? Same illustrious body of fine men that were supposed to be monitoring the integrity of Full Tilt weren't they? I'm sure they'd say that their licensing activities don't extend to ensuring that licensees remain financially solvent whilst accepting players' deposits - but if they're not regularly taking steps to satisfy themselves, on behalf of licensees' player bases, that licensees are able to pay out players on request (by being solvent and having the money transfer arrangements in place to do so) it does raise the interesting question of just what their licensing is worth?

    A bit like the Financial Standards Authority which is suppose to police the banking industry in the UK - provides about the same level of confidence as a teapot made out of Cadbury's milk.
  • Options
    edited January 2013
    There is also the small matter, That on Sky poker TV they can see everyones hands supposedly a few moments after it is played live, therefor it needs to be recorded, I would imagine that someone has access to the live streaming of this,

    does this open yet anther can of worms?
  • Options
    edited January 2013

    to answer your question- no its not truly random, it cant be. however it is deamed random enough to satisfy Alderney criteria ( read the small print in sky pokers t&cs).

    no program/software can produce truly random results of cards, numbers etc its impossible. the rng can only work with the information it is given, which obviously comes from the programmer.

    so could sky fix the outcome? if they wanted to yes, it would be easy
    would they want to fix the outcome? not a chance, to much risk for such a small gain ( inf act i don't think they would gain anything ).

  • Options
    edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM?????? : The Alderney Gambling Control Commission? Same illustrious body of fine men that were supposed to be monitoring the integrity of Full Tilt weren't they? I'm sure they'd say that their licensing activities don't extend to ensuring that licensees remain financially solvent whilst accepting players' deposits - but if they're not regularly taking steps to satisfy themselves, on behalf of licensees' player bases, that licensees are able to pay out players on request (by being solvent and having the money transfer arrangements in place to do so) it does raise the interesting question of just what their licensing is worth? A bit like the Financial Standards Authority which is suppose to police the banking industry in the UK - provides about the same level of confidence as a teapot made out of Cadbury's milk.
    Posted by Goethe

    "Other varieties are available..." :p
  • Options
    edited January 2013
    In Response to IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    i have been playing on sky for a while now and it seems the hands are not very random anymore......when in tournaments and you are with a smaller stack on the table, whatever you do, withever what hand you have, if you go all in 99% of the time you will lose to the larger stack. This is happening more and more, tonight, twice i went all in, once with AA, someone covered my bet with a 10,2 off suit!!!!!!!!!!!guess what he won with 3 tens............. In the same tourno, another person went all in with AK suited, was called with 53 off, guess what pair 5's won.... it just seems that this site DOES NOT now have a random software, it seems it wants to reduce the numbers when it feels like..... ANYONE else feel the same  or is it just me?
    Posted by thechancer
    Of course it’s completely random - I played a tournament yesterday and after 3 hours I sat on the final table - position 6th of a table that paid the top 5.
    I played very tight hoping that I would be dealt a half decent hand……. And along it came AA - All-in for me. I was called (surprise, surprise) by the chip leader with 7-9.
    Got to be mine surely! Flop: 677 - turn? Can’t remember (still in shock) - but the river was a 9.
    Now, I have no doubt that it was all completely random - and what a great player the chip leader was playing those top cards at exactly the right time!.
    Excellent site - as straight as a f.corkscrew.
    P.s - to be fair it only happens frequently.
  • Options
    edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    In Response to IS IT REALLY RANDOM?????? : Hi chancer, I respectfully suggest that the enboldened part is probably an exaggaration.  
    Posted by Tikay10
    agree with tk its more like 96% ;)
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    edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM??????:
    In Response to Re: IS IT REALLY RANDOM?????? : "Other varieties are available..." :p
    Posted by BigMikeDBC
    Yup. . . . I believe there's also an online gaming licensing authority in the Netherlands Antillies somewhere (ask any of your mates to point that place out on a map of the world) and one on Uranus.

    The full lineup can be found here:  http://www.gamblinglicenses.com/licensesDatabase.cfm

    As a an adjunct, the UK Gambling Commission does provide licensing for remote only operators based in the UK, but most choose to "register" their operations with bodies based in places most people have never heard of.
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