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How bad can I run?

Foolishly trying to crack NL4 again -- continue to run this like and it'll be another failed attempt (this is from a single 2-table 6 hour session)..

Serial slow player/trapper let's the flush get there and then decides it's a good idea to get the money in and get's away with it (My equity when money goes in 87.5%)..
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancesteady120Small blind £0.02£0.02£1.50steeley86Big blind £0.04£0.06£5.04 Your hole cards8A   jessop05Fold    1-on-uCall £0.04£0.10£4.71step7Raise £0.16£0.26£4.11BreezeFold    steady120Call £0.14£0.40£1.36steeley86Call £0.12£0.52£4.921-on-uFold    Flop  A10A   steady120Check    steeley86Check    step7Bet £0.39£0.91£3.72steady120Call £0.39£1.30£0.97steeley86Call £0.39£1.69£4.53Turn  8   steady120Check    steeley86Check    step7Bet £0.85£2.54£2.87steady120Fold    steeley86All-in £4.53£7.07£0.00step7All-in £2.87£9.94£0.00steeley86Unmatched bet £0.81£9.13£0.81steeley86ShowJA   step7Show8A   River  J   steeley86WinFull House, Aces and Jacks£8.44 £9.25
Can't really fault primary villain here, not sure what planet AKo is on?? (but weirdly in 2nd place here!). The deal makes me want to punch a kitten (My equity when money goes in 91%)..
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancegraham1941Small blind £0.02£0.02£4.65steeley86Big blind £0.04£0.06£2.73 Your hole cards33   winston10Fold    earl62Call £0.04£0.10£8.53step7Raise £0.16£0.26£4.37RLCKYDCall £0.16£0.42£2.72graham1941Call £0.14£0.56£4.51steeley86Fold    earl62Fold    Flop  J32   graham1941Bet £0.16£0.72£4.35step7All-in £4.37£5.09£0.00RLCKYDAll-in £2.72£7.81£0.00graham1941Call £4.21£12.02£0.14graham1941ShowJ8   step7Show33   RLCKYDShowKA   Turn  K   River  7   graham1941WinFlush to the King£11.11 £11.25

Min raising AA, classic start to a bad beat story, unfortunately I'm on the receiving end of this one (My equity when money goes in 75%)..
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Comments

  • edited January 2013
    You seem to know what you are doing and look more than capable of beating the level. Stick at it and it will turn around. GL
  • edited January 2013
    Thanks Curits, starting to think I'll need a 100BI roll to survive the downswings!
  • edited January 2013
    Out of curiosity how have you calculated the "equity"? In the first example is it (46-3)/46? Obviously, not as that comes in at 93.48%.

    "Equity" is a term I've never really understood as applied to poker - in the past I've seen it used to describe differing things. I find the concept of probability of winning/losing a hand easier to get my head around. In example one, only 3 cards out of the 46 unseens would give the oppo a better FH. He guessed correctly that he had a better kicker, but unlucky for him you'd paired yours. As James Bond said "he just got lucky".
  • edited January 2013
    He played the hand badly and got away with it in my opinion, waiting for the board to flush then getting his money in. I used "Poker Stove" to calc the equities. Got the numbers wrong in 1 case but dont think the one u quoted. Had an even worse night tonight with beats and coolers inc. getting AA cracked 4 times in 45 minutes, QQ beat by 77 hit set on river after money in of flop, JJ running into AA and KK running into AA. Might post the HH if I can be bothered with poker ever again.
  • edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: How bad can I run?:
    He played the hand badly and got away with it in my opinion, waiting for the board to flush then getting his money in. I used "Poker Stove" to calc the equities. Got the numbers wrong in 1 case but dont think the one u quoted. Had an even worse night tonight with beats and coolers inc. getting AA cracked 4 times in 45 minutes, QQ beat by 77 hit set on river after money in of flop, JJ running into AA and KK running into AA. Might post the HH if I can be bothered with poker ever again.
    Posted by step7
    Did it look any thing like this? Does happen I lost 2 quid but this guy had bought in 5 times already. I'm shoving everyday of the week against this guy as if I do not he will. He has to get lucky every now and again. He calls with one over card on the flop so worth considering. Personally I find a better spot. Shove yes but call no.

    I hope he wins for his sheer bravery but I am watchin to see how he does.

    hand below. And I know all I have is top pair but I on level 8 and had watched him rebuy and bluff all night.Different style but may be profitable who knows.
     Not Knocking player at all his style is just super aggressive and I wish him all the best.
    ued****** Small blind  50.00 50.00 4000.00
    GIVEMETHAT Big blind  100.00 150.00 1480.00
      Your hole cards
    • Q
    • K
         
    ollywals Call  100.00 250.00 2605.00
    dotsmum Fold     
    snorky Raise  200.00 450.00 3326.25
    bckneil Fold     
    ued Raise  250.00 700.00 3750.00
    GIVEMETHAT Fold     
    ollywals Call  200.00 900.00 2405.00
    snorky Call  100.00 1000.00 3226.25
    Flop
       
    • 5
    • Q
    • 3
         
    ued Bet  1000.00 2000.00 2750.00
    ollywals Fold     
    snorky All-in  3226.25 5226.25 0.00
    ued**** Call  2226.25 7452.50 523.75
    ued Show
    • 7
    • 7
       
    snorky Show
    • Q
    • K
       
    Turn
       
    • 8
         
    River
       
    ued**** Win Three 7s 7452.50  7976.25
    • 7
         
    ued***** Win Three 7s 7452.50  7976.25
    Close window He is now chip leader very brave very aggressive. I suck back this guy obviously knows What hes doing. Gonna shark him now i'm curious.  He's a newbie on here. Good luck fella. Always nice to see new players. 
        
  • edited January 2013
    In Response to Re: How bad can I run?:
    Thanks Curits, starting to think I'll need a 100BI roll to survive the downswings!
    Posted by step7
    steps
    my advice would be to be mega aggressive preflop with decent hands and limp most the other hand the trouble with these tables is as long as they have top pair or the chance of a straight or flush even if it mean both flop and river cards then they will call
    check this hand out
    craigcu12 Small blind  £0.02 £0.02 £5.09
    stevedore Big blind  £0.04 £0.06 £2.59
     Your hole cards
    • K
    • K
       
    fffflipek Call  £0.04 £0.10 £4.23
    Wicklow Call  £0.04 £0.14 £4.36
    halliday12 Call  £0.04 £0.18 £4.21
    Dormy4 Call  £0.04 £0.22 £1.88
    craigcu12 Raise  £0.18 £0.40 £4.91
    stevedore Call  £0.16 £0.56 £2.43
    fffflipek Call  £0.16 £0.72 £4.07
    Wicklow Call  £0.16 £0.88 £4.20
    halliday12 Fold     
    Dormy4 Call  £0.16 £1.04 £1.72
    Flop
      
    • 8
    • 7
    • 5
       
    craigcu12 Bet  £1.04 £2.08 £3.87
    stevedore Call  £1.04 £3.12 £1.39
    fffflipek All-in  £4.07 £7.19 £0.00
    Wicklow All-in  £4.20 £11.39 £0.00
    Dormy4 Fold     
    craigcu12 Call  £3.16 £14.55 £0.71
    stevedore All-in  £1.39 £15.94 £0.00
    craigcu12 Show
    • K
    • K
       
    stevedore Show
    • Q
    • 9
       
    fffflipek Show
    • 6
    • Q
       
    Wicklow Show
    • 9
    • 10
    i am showing signs of a big pocket pair so what do they do, they shove hope the card comes even if it is only a gut shot  and bingo the f...en river card gives them what they want
  • edited January 2013
    Craig I am always aggressive with quality starting hands, I rarely limp, only in special cases where I'm getting a great price, want to be in with the fishes with speculative cards or playing a maniac. Getting the raise size right is an art though, just enough to prevent a school of limpers but keep 1 maybe 2 good but inferior hands in. I tend to show 1 or 2 big winning hands without a showdown early at a new table  - probably frowned upon by the experts - to deter the chancers later on when I raise preflop.. LOL rarely works. I'll leave a table now if I keep ending up in 5 way pots.

    I'm calming down now after a couple of days of the most horrific beats, including getting AA cracked 5 times in a row! The truth is we want to be up against bad players - so long may they continue making bad plays.

    Your hand, at least villian drives instead of chasing the draw. This is fairly standard in cash games, calling Q6s to a raise is not. I personally wouldn't shove an open ender with an overcard, but it does give him two chances to win with a semi-bluff, either you fold or he hits. KK doesn't fair well in 5 way pots, but you're printing money in the long term. Just a thought, would you consider betting 2/3 pot and folding to the shove here and waiting for a better spot? KK could be toast already to AA, set or a flopped striaght - all possible in such a donkey pot.

    For the record with these hands you will win this pot, on average, "only" 44% of the time.. some food for thought.
  • edited January 2013
    Still running like a pig, new record for me, 5 out of 5 AA cracked. 6th AA dealt to me in a cash game following this all fold round to me on the BB:)

    Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
    MBPvn Small blind
    10 10 2940
    Jamm_allin Big blind
    20 30 2940
      Your hole cards A
    A
         
    slipd0g Fold



    step7 Raise
    80 110 2880
    rich1961 Call
    80 190 2130
    302 Fold



    MBPvn Fold



    Jamm_allin Fold



    Flop
        4
    K
    6
         
    step7 Bet
    200 390 2680
    rich1961 All-in
    2130 2520 0
    step7 All-in
    2680 5200 0
    step7 Unmatched bet
    750 4450 750
    step7 Show A
    A



    rich1961 Show K
    2



    Turn
        2      
    River
        5      
    rich1961 Win Two Pairs, Kings and 2s 4450
    4450

  • edited January 2013
    OK had enough of this, 6 out of 7 AA in a row cracked.. Table had broke and HU vs fish who call any raise size..
    Soul and bank roll being destroyed!



  • edited January 2013
    your equities are all wrong. completely wrong. you're often not as big a favourite as you think you are. but you play fine and will destroy the monkeys at this level longer term
  • edited February 2013
    sites corrupt should be closed down on 2 my mp monday played 4 months never won eg just played right through big torney well placed me dealt ace jack diamonds  player bets i call 2 more callers flop comes king tendiamonds ten hearts i bet 2 fold player calls nine of diamonds im home and dry player bets i go all in he calls river comes me home and dry me flush 2 ace he turns 6 7 8 9 10 diamods site corrupt hate me cod=s i complain but as norm emailed player and would u believe it he new player site corrupt 2 the core how tiga and who ever say they associated with skyjoker beyond me but no suprice money talks please close sky down
  • edited February 2013
    Why is it the people that think the site is rigged and keep losing are always incapable of stringing a sentence together
  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: How bad can I run?:
    OK had enough of this, 6 out of 7 AA in a row cracked.. Table had broke and HU vs fish who call any raise size.. Soul and bank roll being destroyed!
    Posted by step7
    hi step7
    it's tough mate when you lose like you are here atm.
    i've been there.i once lost £70 one night playing nl10 losing 7 times with either AA  KK or QQ when going all-in pre-flop with them.yes it hurt.

    my advice,for what it's worth...
    play your AA hands really strong pre-flop and bet really big,even go all-in.that way you should get rid of the junk hands and if you get called you should be in good shape,hopefully against just 1 player.
    if no one calles no worries you haven't lost anything.

    the alternative is to limp in with AA and unless you hit your set,or a run/flush,don't get to attatched to your hand,as it's only 1 pair and it is likely you will lose the hand by the time the river card lands,a lot of the time.

    don't give up...it's only a game.you just have to try and find ways of beating it.it can be done.all the top players have.
    if the money you are losing is a problem,then you are playing to high a level for your b/roll.
    you never want to be losing more than 5% of your b/roll in any session,if possible.
    if you can always keep to this rule,you will be fine.
    easier said than done though....but it works.
    gl buddy.
    hope some of this helps a little.
    :)
    dev

    ps,just looked through your hands...

    firstly u r playing nl4 which is fine regarding your b/roll,as there is no level lower you can play.

    the hands...a8  97  10k  q10 & a5 i would have folded all of them,they are basically junk.

    i'll now have a look at the others again.

    the 33 hand...with 2 clubs on flop flush is always on..ul

    A 10 suited  looks nice....only if u hit flush,dangerous getting it all-in with just 1 pair

    77 hand...again going all-in with 1 pair...unlucky again though.

    looks to me as though you are interested in all the odds,equity,etc,call it what u like.
    poker is basically a simple game,especially at the lower levels.
    keep it simple.
    going all-in with 1 pair is never great,at any time.AA pre-flop is fine.
    if there are 2 flush cards on flop and 3rd comes on turn or river,and opponent bets big or calles your bet...he's almost certainly got flush.
    i'm no expert mate and am still learning this cash game myself,so take any advice with a pinch of salt,but i am giving you the best advice i can from my own limited experiences from playing at this level.
    i'd like to think i am a relatively quick learner though and these are just some of my thoughts.
    gl & best wishes
    :)
    dev


  • edited February 2013
    In Response to Re: How bad can I run?:
    sites corrupt should be closed down on 2 my mp monday played 4 months never won eg just played right through big torney well placed me dealt ace jack diamonds  player bets i call 2 more callers flop comes king tendiamonds ten hearts i bet 2 fold player calls nine of diamonds im home and dry player bets i go all in he calls river comes me home and dry me flush 2 ace he turns 6 7 8 9 10 diamods site corrupt hate me cod=s i complain but as norm emailed player and would u believe it he new player site corrupt 2 the core how tiga and who ever say they associated with skyjoker beyond me but no suprice money talks please close sky down
    Posted by ellie818
    Yes , you`re home and dry on a paired board!!! Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezz
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