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Do I shove with pocket aces on the bubble in a satelitte?
Top 10 qualified with 11th getting £19.80. I was sitting in 8th out of 12 I think. Could I have played this better as it was a satellite or was I just plain unlucky?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wilco40 | Small blind | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 5550.00 | |
| blazer617 | Big blind | 3000.00 | 4500.00 | 21558.74 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| jamie0007t | Fold | ||||
| molly522 | Call | 3000.00 | 7500.00 | 16608.13 | |
| freddiek12 | Fold | ||||
| TROGG463 | Fold | ||||
| wilco40 | All-in | 5550.00 | 13050.00 | 0.00 | |
| blazer617 | Fold | ||||
| molly522 | Call | 4050.00 | 17100.00 | 12558.13 | |
| wilco40 | Show |
| |||
| molly522 | Show |
| |||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| molly522 | Win | Two Pairs, Kings and 9s | 17100.00 | 29658.13 | |
Comments
If there are other players shorter-stacked than you, then this can be a fold. You have to judge your chance of winning this hand against the chance of you winning the money/seat if you fold. So if three or four players are sat on just 1BB, you're probably more likely to get to the money if you fold than if you shove.
If you can tell us the stack sizes of the other eleven players, we can give you a better answer. It's never going to be absolutely terrible to put your last 2BB in with AA, though. lol
By the way, what's the difference between the cash consolation and the value of the seat?
I was lying 8th out of the 12 left. Top stack 24k and I had 7-8K I think. Lowest stack was around 3-4k. The value of the seat was £33 (it was the £10K BH tonight). I folded QQ a couple of hands before as I had 2 big stacks playing after me and didnt want to risk it. Just couldnt put AA down :-(
Sigh at people limping K9 from like a 7xBB stack on the bubble of a satellite lol. If he hadnt made such a terrible open, he wouldnt have had to call
Agree with what borin/lambert said.
It basically boils down to simple maths. Seeing as the guy is never folding to your shove, and you're going to be around an 80% favourite when you get your money in...
Do you think your chances of cashing in the satellite with your short stack if you fold are greater than 80%, or lower?
I personally fold here, thinking there's an 80%+ chance that someone busts before I do, just letting the blinds go through me, as I bleed down to 0 chips.
Can't blame OP for shoving though. ul gg.
Most of the detail has been put by BL but why don't you get the app that does the maths for you by examining the the stack sizes in conjunction with the prizes. By the way the cash prize for just missing should be taken into account too. It will be too complicated to use during the game but afterwards will give you an idea for later games. You will however have to make an assumption about what range the villain would call with. However in this case where there is a frankly naive limp you could assme he will call most of the time. Funny, i'd be thinking he had a premier pr so you would be 80% favourite.
There are still some cases where the maths will tell you to fold though. This is down to maths ( not simple by the way considering the time involved) not 'guessing' whether you are 80% certain to get through which means nothing really as how do you compare 80 to 70 to 60? This is one of the few situations where a mathematical yea/no can be gven but all the info is needed and an assumption will be made too. Consequently, as happened here, you missed out to a poor call.