NL 10 - What to do on the river?

ballboy

Been on pants run for last month or so (there is a few bad beats, some tilt moves and a lot of paying off value vets in there) and rather than sulk or put some of the hands down to rotten luck this is going to be first of many I am going to post to see what people think.This one is against Supercrazy who I have played a lot on sky. There are two limps including him and I decided to put bit of squeeze on.Flop looks like a dream and I fire flop and turn, but by the river I feel I am in danger. I decide to check and he fires all in for a pot sized bet.
Is this ever a fold?PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceballboySmall blind £0.05£0.05£9.44bartonironBig blind £0.10£0.15£17.81 Your hole cardsQA   angus1946Call £0.10£0.25£8.45bantecaFold    supercrazyCall £0.10£0.35£8.95ballboyRaise £0.60£0.95£8.84bartonironFold    angus1946Fold    supercrazyCall £0.55£1.50£8.40Flop  Q48   ballboyBet £0.90£2.40£7.94supercrazyCall £0.90£3.30£7.50Turn  4   ballboyBet £1.60£4.90£6.34supercrazyCall £1.60£6.50£5.90River  7   ballboyCheck    supercrazyAll-in £5.90£12.40£0.0

SHANXTA

what hands do you think he'll limp, 44? 88? AdXd? JTdd 9Tdd.........

will he raise the flop with a set, how does he play draws?

if you've played with him alot you should have some reads.

ballboy

Yeah think the way he played it - Its never going to be AA, KK, QQ, etc as they wouldn't willingly limp in v potentially 3/4 players. I also don't think he has 5-6 as I don't think he would play it that way preflop.

Its hard to put him on quads with the 44s. So I am thinking he either has KQ, QJ or 88

but then the first two - would he jam all in on the river?


I've played him a lot and have an idea of how he plays which probably explains why I lose less money to him than others, but really there is only one hand (8-8) that makes sense here.

I ended up calling and he flopped set with the 8s.

I do wonder though - do I write it off as bad luck or can I ever fold the river when I am losing to one hand?

liamboi11

versus this player he always has it hes a good solid player but one of the nittiest players at 10nl and never bluffs you prob know this.

but yeah sometimes a level myself versus him and others thinking he knows that I know he never bluffs so he is bluffing now lol.

WHOAMI196

with stack sizes its really difficult to get away from this on the river. 

But you know this guy right!? what worse will call you here, esp on the turn? does he turn missed draws into bluffs? Is it worth checking turn? you  should be able to assign him a solid range better than most that will post here...

(just seen shanx's post, same as that really.)

shaun09

Liam i have sene him bluff before bu tlike you say a solid very nitty player, he hardly ever limps, But his normally multitabling so some times when his limped and iv raised him he will then RR, so not sure if its a mis click by him some times. But by your hand i would put him on 88 for sure 

Ice_Tiger

Seems like he is one of those players that only limps small to medium pocket pairs making 88 his most likely hand. Still hard to get away from though.

bearlyther

Bet bigger on turn and go for 3 streets of value