nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board

rancid

Ok, so no concrete reads but oppo is an okish player - very straight forward poker
UTG range is pretty wide, suited conns and up
I check turn because I timed out,  ( but kinda changes oppo v/b on river where they could easily v/b worse - at least this is my thinking
The question is should i raise, and if so can I raise fold - and how much can I raise fold
Or do we just call

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Shankiiies	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£9.11
gaz4tez17	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£9.62
	Your hole cards	Q K
x	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£11.77
rancid	Call		£0.30	£0.75	£27.08
Shankiiies	Fold
gaz4tez17	Fold
Flop
		8 7 J
x	Bet		£0.56	£1.31	£11.21
rancid	Call		£0.56	£1.87	£26.52
Turn
		8
x	Check
rancid	Check
River
		A
x	Bet		£0.94	£2.81	£10.27
rancid

FlashFlush

Deffo a raise on the river. If he had FH I would expect them to bet more on the river to get value out of flushes / binked ace. Doubt they would check the turn either...

Is villain me?

LnarinOO

100% raise/fold.. a raise is definatley unexpected and can look bluffy seeing as all your value hands, flushes and FH's would have been expected to bet the turn.. as it looks kinda bluffy i make it slightly bigger to try and get a call from an ace.. in the region of 3.30 and fold to an allin

salazar

I think you can raise but if he comes back and shoves on you then start thinking your flush is no good

PiAnOpLaYa

In Response to Re: nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board:

Deffo a raise on the river. If he had FH I would expect them to bet more on the river to get value out of flushes / binked ace. Doubt they would check the turn either... Is villain me?
Posted by FlashFlush

Doubt it he said ok reg not a fish! 

FlashFlush

In Response to Re: nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board:

In Response to Re: nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board : Doubt it he said ok reg not a fish! 
Posted by PiAnOpLaYa

Good point!

bearlyther

definately raising river

shakinaces

In Response to Re: nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board:

Deffo a raise on the river. If he had FH I would expect them to bet more on the river to get value out of flushes / binked ace. Doubt they would check the turn either... Is villain me?
Posted by FlashFlush

I thought this as well at first glance... but then (a) the villain would have been listed as a bit of numpty and (b) I've learned to try and pick NL10 tables without OP sat at them...

The play looks like the sort of AQ/AK/AJ hand that raised, c-bet, been scared of the paired board/flush and checked the turn, but when you check behind the A hits and they figure to be good so try and eke out a bit more value.

On that basis, raising seems a good option here, they are certain to pay off a reasonable sized bet should they have a decent ace (especially if villain IS me lol).

waynec

Just a point of order your hand is 3rd nuts possible here as 9T spades is first with A 2nd, I think a value bet is in order as long as we can muck should he jam..... not an easy hand to lay down so with only the 3rd nuts a check is not that bad. Plus if he puts you on an A with a weaker flush he may reraise to a value bet and we lay down the best hand.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: nl10 - raise for value with 2nd nut flush on paired board:

Just a point of order your hand is 3rd nuts possible here as 9T spades is first with A 2nd, I think a value bet is in order as long as we can muck should he jam..... not an easy hand to lay down so with only the 3rd nuts a check is not that bad. Plus if he puts you on an A with a weaker flush he may reraise to a value bet and we lay down the best hand.
Posted by waynec

He said 2nd nut flush, not 2nd nuts.

He hasn't got the 3rd nuts cos obv quads beat him, 77, JJ and AA for FHs, the nut flush and the straight flush.

If we're gonna be picky

percival09

bet turn. getting value from Jx bla, charge him to draw. Oh you said you meant to in op, bs ;-)

yeah I think we have to raise otr. Prob quite close though because I don't think we're getting called by too much worse and if he 3bets we're screwed innit. I just make it small tho because we're repping the nuts by raising, so we wanna make him feel priced in with Ax or w/e