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thought's...
A hand from NL10 cash game.
Thourghts on my play please.
Put him on QQ/KK. thourght only way i can win is by reppin the ace. Is it a supid bluff really?PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancejcleggy24Small blind £0.05£0.05£9.94ladyveeBig blind £0.10£0.15£2.48 Your hole cardsJJ sighcallRaise £0.40£0.55£10.40SHANXTAFold bobatFold Poplar134Raise £1.00£1.55£9.83jcleggy24Fold ladyveeFold sighcallCall £0.60£2.15£9.80Flop 824 sighcallCheck Poplar134Bet £1.00£3.15£8.83sighcallCall £1.00£4.15£8.80Turn A sighcallCheck Poplar134Bet £1.00£5.15£7.83sighcallCall £1.00£6.15£7.80River 7 sighcallCheck Poplar134Bet £1.00£7.15£6.83sighcallAll-in £7.80£14.95£0.00
Comments
Edit: Also if I have KK or QQ on that river I would likely call
The question I'd ask is about your plan on the river. When you checked, he has to bet exactly £1 to even give you the chance to check-raise. He only has a pot-sized bet back after the turn action so you have to know that he's so bad that he will only ever bet £1 or less. So what was your real plan when you checked the river?
I suspect you came up with this idea of bluffing only after seeing his bet. Were you just hoping he'd check back? What do we think his range for checking back the river is? He knows he probably can't win with KQ if he checks back so he probably bluffs with that, especially since you look so weak. So he probably only checks hands that beat us unless we're putting TT or worse in his pre-flop 3-betting range.
My point would be that if you check, thinking that he only ever bets £1, then you can't say that his range is weak for doing so. If he bets bigger with made hands, then why do you wait until the river to turn your hand into that bluff? Which hands are you representing when you check-raise this river? If you had two-pair or better, would you really check this river after his £1, £1, £1 line? I doubt you would check with those hands and risk him checking back, and I doubt you check-raise many Aces that you don't 4-bet with pre-flop.
Anyway, when you check-call the turn for £1, I think you're committed to check-calling the £1 on the river. This 7 has changed nothing and now your pot odds are 7:1. Seeing what he does this with will be worth that 10BB, in my opinion.
We need to have our plan on the turn, though, and calling that turn bet hoping that he checks back a blank river is bad as he probably only checks with something that beats us. If we're calling the turn thinking that we're going to turn our hand into a bluff on the river, I don't think we can do anything but open-shove the river. Checking is just so unlikely to give us a bluffing opportunity... I wouldn't like this idea but it seems the only way we can rationally call the turn to bluff the river. The alternative is that we're calling the turn because we think there's a good chance our JJ are good so we should be willing to check-call the river.
Just fold the turn, in my opinion. Sorry if this is a bit rambly. I think it makes sense but I'm pretty tired.
c/c down
If they never fold then why bluff