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20NL - Calling turn w/ GS + NFD
Can/should we call this turn bet. What line do we take throughout? I'm not even considering raising cos I don't think we get folds.
Assuming the 4 x 10s are outs and the 9 spades what do we think? I know I'm not getting the direct odds to call on the turn, but if we can get a decent V-bet through on the river or even stack him if he jams like this with his 2prs and sets obv I'll hold the nuts w/ the flush unless it's the 4s or Js that comes??
Or is this just leaking money?
Assuming the 4 x 10s are outs and the 9 spades what do we think? I know I'm not getting the direct odds to call on the turn, but if we can get a decent V-bet through on the river or even stack him if he jams like this with his 2prs and sets obv I'll hold the nuts w/ the flush unless it's the 4s or Js that comes??
Or is this just leaking money?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| shouting | Small blind | £0.10 | £0.10 | £15.50 | |
| Grafix | Big blind | £0.20 | £0.30 | £31.97 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Tony826 | Fold | ||||
| paddy27879 | Fold | ||||
| CAPITALISM | Fold | ||||
| Lambert180 | Raise | £0.60 | £0.90 | £19.10 | |
| shouting | Call | £0.50 | £1.40 | £15.00 | |
| Grafix | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| shouting | Check | ||||
| Lambert180 | Bet | £0.80 | £2.20 | £18.30 | |
| shouting | Call | £0.80 | £3.00 | £14.20 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| shouting | Bet | £2.00 | £5.00 | £12.20 | |
| Lambert180 | Call | £2.00 | £7.00 | £16.30 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| shouting | All-in | £12.20 | £19.20 | £0.00 | |
| Lambert180 | Fold | ||||
| shouting | Muck | ||||
| shouting | Win | £6.65 | £6.65 | ||
| shouting | Return | £12.20 | £0.35 | £18.85 | |
Comments
if oppo got £18 back then it's ok
£2 to call on turn for a pot of £7, bit slim odds. Not a profitable call in the long run. But sometimes you just have to go for it!
If I assume my 13 outs are clean which is true against 2prs but I lose 2 outs against a set, then I am 3to1 to catch up on the river.
Assuming I can get £4 minimum out of him on the river, that means I will win a pot of £15 for the £2 that I put in on the turn. Obviously it's very rough and doesn't account for me sometimes splitting and other various outcomes but is this kind of in the right ballpark of thinking? and if so, does that mean the call is ok?
if you hit how much do you need to win to make it +EV
How much do you plan to bet on river if you hit and will you get paid and is it enough to make it +EV
I know I'm like 3to1 to hit assuming as I say my outs are clean.
Well obv in this spot, he's jammed so I'd call with my made hands and that's great, dunno if he'd jam 100% of rivers or what. If he checks the river though, I think I can squeeze £4+ out of him. I'd probably go something like £4.50.
FWIW, I hear what you're saying about him being deeper, but the pot by the river is only £7 and he's got £12 behind so nearly double the pot. Surely it doesn't matter too much if he has £20 or £100 left (99% of the time) cos unless he's a complete spewtard he's never gonn c/r the river then call my 3bet with worse (assuming I river the nuts) so I'm likely only gonna get a V-bet out of him whatever he has behind. Please tell me why I'm wrong if I am
basically if you hit, your hand is not very well disguised your implied odds are not that good
although depends a lot of oppo and etc.. but I would want to see more behind oppo for the times when oppo is bad and will stack with worse. Espcially if oppo somehow has the str or weaker flush, or just stacks sets/2prs.
Talking with Dohhh, I think this is right....
Assume 25% equity, so if I'm calling £2, that means I need to win £8 to make it break even.
I'm already winning the £5 already in there minimum if I hit, so if I get £3 out of him on the river when I think then it's BE and I'm pretty confident I can get more than that.
Well this is it, how much can you get - if your hand is very well disguised then you have more of a chance of getting more and wouldn't that be even better if oppo got more behind if you really think oppo will stack - probably not but you get my drift
But here you hand is so obvious, maybe you have a better chance getting paid if you hit flush but it's not like you have a hidden straight. Would be so nice if oppo got btm str 910ss lol, cooler- but you would want more for nutz though init !
edit: think it's about £6.50 for break even - quick maths
So you basically want to stack oppo, how possible is that
I don't think flatting the turn is always gonna be a hand like this.
At the point you call you have to win another £6.50 for the reminder of the hand.
I am sure you don't take into account previous streets and what is in the pot already.