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50nl what to do on the turn when get raised is it a snap shove?
FudleySmall blind £0.25£0.25£73.28ritz77711Big blind £0.50£0.75£61.73 Your hole cardsAK david19119Fold IDONKCALLURaise £1.50£2.25£47.21donfaz7813Fold HachiKuroFold FudleyCall £1.25£3.50£72.03ritz77711Raise £4.00£7.50£57.73IDONKCALLUCall £3.00£10.50£44.21FudleyCall £3.00£13.50£69.03Flop 810Q FudleyCheck ritz77711Check IDONKCALLUBet £9.00£22.50£35.21FudleyRaise £18.50£41.00£50.53
Comments
Don't think we have any fold equity by shoving, and don't think we've ever got great equity against anything we're gonna see.
Having said that, if we get it in, we're getting about 2-1 on our money, right? someone correct me if I'm wrong. It's probably marginal imo between a fold or a shove. Interested to hear what better players than me say though.
Have you got any reads or history with either player?
As played, you've got yourself into a tricky old spot of your own making. I think it's a fold now just because they should be really nutted on this board to bet as they have. Yes we have equity to improve but have no idea if our equity is to win the hand or not.
Without reads they look so strong, AcQx+ including two pairs, sets, straight with a club and made flushes.
Fold now and don't put yourself in these spots in the future.
why bet flop
I don't like the plan, but if you have one then follow it.
And what is your plan for if you get raised? If your plan is to GII to a c/r, then just do it and then there's no question here. Problem is you're gonna get c/r alot here and when you do, you are folding when you could have just took a free card or playing for stacks and almost definitely getting it in bad. The pot is already big and you can get stacks in over 2 streets if you need/want to.
Bet/folding the flop is horrible I agree, but I don't see any other option.
Also, I don't see how it's face up as AK, do we never 4bet any other hands apart from AK?
BUT....
What's better, b/f and feel stupid for forcing ourselves to fold OR, bet/GII knowing we're always in bad shape?
Donk hasn't explained why betting is better than checking.
P.S. Nice work on the ninja quote Geldy lol.
Obviously we haven't taken into account reads but personally i dont think you take this down very often with this flop bet and the occasions where you do get action i think you will be in bad shape a high % of the time. also, when you do get check/raised on this flop i think the equity you can expect to have is always really low...their line is never weak imo.
Ok you've asked so I'll answer.
Reasons not to bet the flop when the action is checked to us.
1) We've cold called a 3bet with action not yet closed behind us. So we've already flagged up that we like our hand pre. The original raiser has called a 3bet and a cold call, he too likes his hand. The 3bettor has 3bet quite small so if they are at all competent then they too like their hand. So we have the looks of three decent to strong holdings going to the flop. This board nails strong holdings, it's layered and it's right at the top end. So it's safe to assume that at least one and maybe both of the villains have at least a piece of this.
2) The act of betting. I take it we are semi-bluffing. Let's break that down into two parts. Firstly the bluff part, how much fold equity do we have by betting the flop? Very little indeed, so little that I think the act of bluffing here is nearly pointless. We are three way in a 3bet pot, someone else has a piece here quite often. And a decent portion of the time they smash it. I see TPTK+ here all the way up to and uncapped at flushes, straight and sets. So little of the 3bet or the callers range is folding on this flop and I very much doubt there are brick run outs which they fold either if you plan to barrel all of the way. So the bluff part of betting is ultimately pointless.
Move on to the second part of the semi bluff, betting our equity. I'm a great believer in betting and ultimately at times stacking off on pure equity, because our percentage chance of winning a hand on the flop or turn is vastly more important than where our hand is on the rankings system at that time. So how's our equity?
We have two overs, the nut straight gutshot draw and the second nut flush draw on a monotone board. In a single raised heads up pot I would be quite happy with this situation, however we are in a three way 3bet pot. The fact it is three bet means the likelihood of our flush draw being live is reduced as an Ace makes a large part of the 3bettors range and one of the last three is the club, factor in the caller then that makes it even more likely. And that's not even counting all the hand combinations which smash this board and we don't match that great against. There is a remarkable chance, a highly probably chance if we get action, that our best case scenario is eight clubs and three jacks to win the hand. That's eleven outs, we're not favourite here in that case and I'm be pretty optimistic if I was to think this will be a frequent situation, a ton of the time we've lost our flush outs and sometimes they have the pair up joker. I don't think our equity in this pot is that great in this spot.
So let's combine the two together. Fold equity:- Almost zero plus equity:- Ok but dangerous if we get action.
To me this means if we bet and if we get action we are building a pot which someone else will win more than we win. If we check the flop then we can assess the actions of the others to whatever the turn brings. We have position, someone with a made hand will have to start putting money in, we might hit our flush, straight or even nut flush if the gin Ace comes down and we haven't invested money someone else will win more than we do.
That is my argument for not betting the flop.
Now please in future add any and all reads you have to get a much better amount of responses and take the names out.