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Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?

edited August 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Just wondering what people would do here with queens, facing such a massive overbet? Totallyreadless, oppnent is knew to table

JNWallerSmall blind £0.02£0.02£5.11Superman_Big blind £0.04£0.06£3.42 Your hole cardsQQ   LARSON7Raise £0.20£0.26£10.94hoggy245Call £0.20£0.46£4.06aquajimCall £0.20£0.66£1.18mitchymofoCall £0.20£0.86£0.42JNWallerAll-in £5.11£5.97£0.00Superman_Fold    LARSON7Fold
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Comments

  • edited August 2013
    Without reads, we just have to look at the numbers and assign a standard range based on the average 4nl player

    6xAA
    6XKK
    1xQQ
    6xJJ
    16xAK


    I fold, although I am a bit of a nit at 4nl.

    If we call, we must make a note that villain re ships over 20p with XX and a £5.30 stack. So making a mistake can be used as a reference point in the future.
  • edited August 2013
  • edited August 2013
    We need 45.1% equity to call. (£4.91 to win a £10.88 pot and 4.91/10.88 = 0.45)

    Against a range of JJ+ and AKs we only have 42.5%, so it's a fold. If we add in AKo then we have 47.4% so it becomes a call. Taking out JJ but keeping in AKo we only have 40%.

    Given that the equities in this tight range though are all fairly close to the equity that we need to call, I think folding would be a big mistake without any read on villain because if we widen their range at all, we suddenly have way more than the required equity needed. For example, if they decide to shove the top 5% of their hands (99+ AJs+ KQs) here we have 58.3%! against their range. So we end up making a huge (13.2% mistake) by folding. Whereas in the scenarios before with the tight ranges, the biggest mistake we can make by calling is 5.1%.

    In conclusion - if you'd hardly noticed this player at the table (yet been playing a long time with them) then you could fold, but against any player that has been somewhat active or against a completely new player that you'd never played with, it would be a mistake to fold.

  • edited August 2013
    In Beane speak...

    "Call cos we has dem Queenies"

    FWIW this is 2 big picture cards like AK alot imo! just dodge them overs!
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    We need 45.1% equity to call. (£4.91 to win a £10.88 pot and 4.91/10.88 = 0.45) Against a range of JJ+ and AKs we only have 42.5%, so it's a fold. If we add in AKo then we have 47.4% so it becomes a call. Taking out JJ but keeping in AKo we only have 40%. Given that the equities in this tight range though are all fairly close to the equity that we need to call, I think folding would be a big mistake without any read on villain because if we widen their range at all, we suddenly have way more than the required equity needed. For example, if they decide to shove the top 5% of their hands (99+ AJs+ KQs) here we have 58.3%! against their range. So we end up making a huge (13.2% mistake) by folding. Whereas in the scenarios before with the tight ranges, the biggest mistake we can make by calling is 5.1%. In conclusion - if you'd hardly noticed this player at the table (yet been playing a long time with them) then you could fold, but against any player that has been somewhat active or against a completely new player that you'd never played with, it would be a mistake to fold.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Why does nobody ever account for rake in their calculations (or at least in marginal hands for stacks). Every pot we win we can take off about 70p, which vastly alters the numbers in this spot.
  • edited August 2013
    in need of a very good reason to consider folding here
  • edited August 2013
    Don't play much NL4 nowadays but this was always a dance around the room call a couple of year ago. I think the range spoken about in this thread is incredibly tight for NL4 readless, Would'nt surprise me one jot to see villain flip over J,8 off suit.
  • edited August 2013

    lol normally at 4nl the open shove is aces or kings. That's why i folded.

    But in this example, it was a wrong fold. Ironically it ended up in a 4 way all in lol

  • edited August 2013
    I would never fold QQ pre at 4nl, whatever action happens in front of me.
  • edited August 2013
    the time it is really going to be AA or KK on nl4 is when it was started off with a limp. if he were not able to limp  the chances are he would only make the call preflop then either jam or check raise on the flop itself.
  • edited August 2013
    Screams middlish pair to me... typical tournament player dabbling in cash that bags 77/88/99 or such and is overvaluing it, by a lot.
  • edited August 2013
    never fold without specifc read

    as for figuring in rake, as rake is taken from the eventual pot as showdown then when working out ev lines you simply do not account for rake.
    Plus it would get even more complicated when you try and figure in rakeback !


    if rake is at such a % where it makes playing a certain range -EV then you have to answer yourself why are you playing where your playing or like you hint at you just have to tighten the belt

    but you really shouldn't pay too much attention to rake, kinda drags you away from the more important issue of finding the greater +EV line

  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    never fold without specifc read as for figuring in rake, as rake is taken from the eventual pot as showdown then when working out ev lines you simply do not account for rake. Plus it would get even more complicated when you try and figure in rakeback ! if rake is at such a % where it makes playing a certain range -EV then you have to answer yourself why are you playing where your playing or like you hint at you just have to tighten the belt but you really shouldn't pay too much attention to rake, kinda drags you away from the more important issue of finding the greater +EV line
    Posted by rancid

    rofl what a nonsense post.

    If you're taking a 50/50 flip with no dead money in the pot and the rake is 7.5% then its not a 0EV line its a -EV line.


  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : rofl what a nonsense post. If you're taking a 50/50 flip with no dead money in the pot and the rake is 7.5% then its not a 0EV line its a -EV line.
    Posted by NColley

    lol you rubbish my post by showing this toy example

    wp

    Just advising to concentrate on making the greater +EV play rarther than sweating rake at the tables

    I mean come on your example has no real world application, you range 50/50 - with no fe - no dead money ?

    We can pick toy examples out of thin air - it doesn't prove anything - would seem your just trying to rubbish what I am saying with no real hard facts to back up what your saying.
  • edited August 2013
    Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros.

    You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.
  • edited August 2013
    I fold every time m8.
    lose 20p next hand.

    even with good reads on a player you could still be racing at best.
    I might call for around 50bb's or less,which would indicate to me that this player hadn't topped up,but imo no need to risk 100 bb's or more.
    I can find a better spot to get 100 bb's in.
    :)
    dev
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros. You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.
    Posted by NColley

    My point is quite clear that you should not concentrate on rake when making plays.
    I mean you could figure this into your strat and get them to fold a lot pre in 100bb 3 bet pots etc..

    Your simply talking about a spot where you have to call off 50/50, I think anyone with a basic understanding of EV know what to do in that spot.

    Just think your going to get sidetracked at micros concentrating on rake, where situaions are all about range, equity , EV.


    I just think when people at micros contemplate rake they do it after the end result.
    "O look I was actually flipping and we both lost .16p"
    Very easy to know the asnwer with hindsight, doesn't mean your play was wroung.





  • edited August 2013
    Using F Ivanovics earlier post the rake is going to be 7.5% of 10.88 = 0.816 rounded up so 82p.

    So we actually need odds of 4.91/10.06 = 0.488, or 49% which is a 4% difference. Its fairly significant. Here in this example villain now needs to be getting in TT+, AK for us to have 51% and a marginally +EV play.
  • edited August 2013
    rake will stay the same

    Would be better to focus on villians range and if villian is shoving wider than TT+,AKs,AKo your making a mistake by folding.

    It's no secret there is a big hand - big bet strat to micros and it's all to do with rake plus the obvious NOFE at micros.

    I grant you rake % affect everything from pre flop raises, how you should play your draws - how you should play agianst draws escpially.

    If people are going to start folding big hand pre becuse of rake then your going to need some luck.

    Need to think about range v range before rake


    I will agree anyalising plays alongside rake % is good @micros but seriously it should not alter you plays at the table where you just become paranoid about rake.

    A lof of micros start out there that alot of mircos players are employing actually take rake into consideration.
    So if your implementing good micro strat rake should not be at the forefront of your mind when playing.



  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    Prove why we should ignore rake of 7.5% at the micros. You just keep on making posts that read through terribly and don't actually have any valid point in them.
    Posted by NColley

    x2 for your first point.
  • edited August 2013
    Rancid - Your so wrong on this it's madness.

    lets take your range vs. range example and see why you're so wrong about not considering the rake.

    Effective stacks are 100bb. Action folds to me in the SB and I open shove a range of AA, QQ.
    You have KK in the BB, call or fold?

    KK vs. my range has 50% equity.

    Folding has an ev of -1bb,
    Calling has an ev of -7.5bb (not including to tiny rakeback Sky offers).

    Hopefully you can see the massive difference :)
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    Rancid - Your so wrong on this it's madness. lets take your range vs. range example and see why you're so wrong about not considering the rake. Effective stacks are 100bb. Action folds to me in the SB and I open shove a range of AA, QQ. You have KK in the BB, call or fold? KK vs. my range has 50% equity. Folding has an ev of -1bb, Calling has an ev of -7.5bb. Hopefully you can see the massive difference :)
    Posted by dub1

    ok this is getting silly I am never folding KK:)

    Why would I put you on such a narrow range and fold, cmon bad example.
    If anyone starts playing like that then surely we should all be shot :D

    But anyway maybe it has come across like I am saying rake is not a consideration. Because somewhere it obviously is and if read through my posts I lean towards saying it must be considered somehwere.

    But you gotta think about range first and because these situations where you really have to look at a very thin spot and take rake into account are rare I don't think people need to start thinking about rake first.
    Otherwise it's going to have such a negative effect on people game where they giving up so many spots because they range them so narrow and then think - o yes I can fold because of rake.


    For this QQ -ev spot for example where I gotta fold because I narrow villian & readless is just so stoopid it beggers beleive. How can people readless assign a range and fold because of rake.
    Your going to need 100% concrete read to fold spots like that, seriously do you guys think it has a massive implication on your pre flop game that your going to start folding premium hands.

    So yes I will continue to warn the micros that putting rake first is not the way to go.
    If people want to disagree then fine.

    Makes me chuckle that a lot of people are using anti rake strat anyway but don't even know it, they just think they value betting.

    But anyway think about range pre and post before rake.


    If anyone wants to rubbish what I am saying then come on bring it on.
    Might actuaally get some decent poker talk rarther then someone posting "x2"













  • edited August 2013

    EV of folding is already -5bb.

  • edited August 2013
    EV of folding is zero
  • edited August 2013
    How is the ev -5bb when we have only invested 1bb into the pot (the big blind)?

    It's hard to prove a point without writing a book so it's not a bad example just a simple one. The point of this isn't about what the OP should do in the hand they posted or what's the villains range etc, but to prove that rake should be a factor in calculating the ev. I'll try again.

    I'm SB, your BB, rake is 7.5%

    If I tell you before we play that my strategy against you is to open shove a range of AA,QQ and I can't deviate from that, then :- 

    What would your strategy be when it's folded to me in the SB, I shove and you have KK in the BB?
    What's the highest ev play for you in the above example and what is the ev of both calling and folding? (Just work out the ev of this situation and not for our whole strategies).  


  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    EV of folding is zero
    Posted by rancid
    This just depends where you start looking from. If you start looking from before the blinds are posted it's -1bb and if you start looking from after the blinds are posted it's 0.

    This makes no difference, except to the equation for working out ev.
  • edited August 2013
    I was on about the original example, where we raise 5bb. But you're right that it depends where you start looking from.
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    I was on about the original example, where we raise 5bb. But you're right that it depends where you start looking from.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Cool, I got my wires crossed. I always calculate ev from before the blinds are posted so your right, the ev of folding for the OP is -5bb.
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : This just depends where you start looking from. If you start looking from before the blinds are posted it's -1bb and if you start looking from after the blinds are posted it's 0. This makes no difference, except to the equation for working out ev.
    Posted by dub1

    It's expected value, we can not base the calcualtion on money we have already lost.

    ie. when we flip a coin we calucalte the ev on the next flip and do not factor in the last flip
  • edited August 2013
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:
    In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : It's expected value, we can not base the calcualtion on money we have already lost. ie. when we flip a coin we calucalte the ev on the next flip and do not factor in the last flip
    Posted by rancid
    Okay, so were hu, 100bb effective. I raise every hand to 99bb and always fold when you shove. So what your saying is that my strategy is 0ev or slightly +ev (from the times you fold) because folding is 0ev?
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