Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

How is the ev -5bb when we have only invested 1bb into the pot (the big blind)? It's hard to prove a point without writing a book so it's not a bad example just a simple one. The point of this isn't about what the OP should do in the hand they posted or what's the villains range etc, but to prove that rake should be a factor in calculating the ev. I'll try again. I'm SB, your BB, rake is 7.5% If I tell you before we play that my strategy against you is to open shove a range of AA,QQ and I can't deviate from that, then :-  What would your strategy be when it's folded to me in the SB, I shove and you have KK in the BB? What's the highest ev play for you in the above example and what is the ev of both calling and folding? (Just work out the ev of this situation and not for our whole strategies).  
Posted by dub1

btw yes get it, but's it's a toy game

I don't feel comfortable with toy games because they suggest that certain plays are fine based on very specific circumstances which in the most part do not apply to real world poker. And can suggest to some that it's actually ok to fold in what they now deem to be similar spots.

dub1

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

When we flip a coin we calucalte the ev on the next flip and do not factor in the last flip
Posted by rancid

This is just straight up wrong but makes a good example about why rake is important.

Your local casino offers a coin toss with a rake of 1%, what's the ev for you to play in this game?

dub1

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : btw yes get it, but's it's a toy game I don't feel comfortable with toy games because they suggest that certain plays are fine based on very specific circumstances which in the most part do not apply to real world poker. And can suggest to some that it's actually ok to fold in what they now deem to be similar spots.
Posted by rancid

It's not a toy game. I told you my strategy so you have perfect information to work out the ev. My post have nothing to do with the OP's question, just that rake should always be included when calculating ev.

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : Okay, so were hu, 100bb effective. I raise every hand to 99bb and always fold when you shove. So what your saying is that my strategy is 0ev or slightly +ev (from the times you fold) because folding is 0ev?
Posted by dub1

I love your games

I will concede and say their are very specifc circumstances where folding is not zero EV
But jesus I can't remember the specific situation or even remember the calc, would have to look back at stuff.

But in the above example if I fold then for me it's 0ev
If your folding when you raise 99bb then that's not good is it

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : It's not a toy game. I told you my strategy so you have perfect information to work out the ev. My post have nothing to do with the OP's question, just that rake should always be included when calculating ev.
Posted by dub1

Then obviously it's a toy game cause no one will tell you their strategy.

Look I agree obviously that if you assign range and do the ev calc and your looking at a slightly 0ev play then you have to factor in rake % espcially at micros where they punish you for taking thin spots.

But all this still revolves around one thing and that's range assignment. Like I suggested earlier your going to have to be so sure you have that range correct for folding pre hands in this spots.
You could even take it a lot further and suggest folding big combos draws versus top set.

If only everyone was that good that they could range people correct 100% of the time.

I wouldn't advise anyone playing micros to make these massive folds in game.

Unless like you say someone shows you their cards

dub1

Cool.

Like I said, It just depends at what point you look from. It's always from before the blinds are posted which makes more sense to me as you start before the blinds are posted with 100bb and if you fold when in the big blind you end with 99bb. 99bb - 100bb = -1bb.

Each to their own .

calcalfold

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : ok this is getting silly I am never folding KK:) Why would I put you on such a narrow range and fold, cmon bad example. If anyone starts playing like that then surely we should all be shot
Posted by rancid

There are a lot of players I have notes on at 4nl. A lot of nit regs will not raise over 20p all in with less than QQ/AK

so we have AA/KK/AK/QQ

Its a fold against these players

Fact.

rancid

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : There are a lot of players I have notes on at 4nl. A lot of nit regs will not raise over 20p all in with less than QQ/AK so we have AA/KK/AK/QQ Its a fold against these players Fact.
Posted by calcalfold

It's a 3 bet shove over 21bb of dead money
If you really can lay down QQ here and narrow villian as above then well done you


readless you just can't fold this can you

calcalfold

Readness? maybe a call sure

I am never readless. I have a nitdar.

grantorino

Folding is always 0Ev 

You do not own money already in pot. You make a decision in the present, not two streets ago or whatever

Call with QQ all day everyday  with no reads at 4nl , unless rake is like 30% you will be fine

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : Okay, so were hu, 100bb effective. I raise every hand to 99bb and always fold when you shove. So what your saying is that my strategy is 0ev or slightly +ev (from the times you fold) because folding is 0ev?
Posted by dub1

Your overall strategy depends how we act, but it's pretty bad unless we are like part zombie part ketamine

When you make the fold its 0Ev, , but calling will be massively +EV so folding would be pretty bad

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

Rancid - Your so wrong on this it's madness. lets take your range vs. range example and see why you're so wrong about not considering the rake. Effective stacks are 100bb. Action folds to me in the SB and I open shove a range of AA, QQ. You have KK in the BB, call or fold? KK vs. my range has 50% equity. Folding has an ev of -1bb, Calling has an ev of -7.5bb (not including to tiny rakeback Sky offers). Hopefully you can see the massive difference
Posted by dub1

Folding has an EV of 0

Calling has an EV of whatever. If its  worse than 0 you should fold. Happy days. Feel free to include rake

dub1

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : Folding is always 0Ev 

You do not own money already in pot. You make a decision in the present, not two streets ago or whatever

Call with QQ all day everyday  with no reads at 4nl , unless rake is like 30% you will be fine

Posted by grantorino

An extreme example that's maybe not practical but is very much possible.

My strategy is to fold 100% of hands from every position. If folding is 0ev then this strategy will guarantee that I never lose any money?

As you can see this strategy will lose me money so folding 100% of the time can never be 0ev.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : An extreme example that's maybe not practical but is very much possible. My strategy is to fold 100% of hands from every position. If folding is 0ev then this strategy will guarantee that I never lose any money? As you can see this strategy will lose me money so folding 100% of the time can never be 0ev.
Posted by dub1

I'm not sure how pedantic this is getting but w/e, I've had a few

You are talking about a strategy. As an overall strategy it sucks obv. But your individual decision to fold each hand is 0Ev. You don't own any money already in the pot . Your pot odds take account of this. Hence why we don't need 50% to call usually. 

dub1

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : I'm not sure how pedantic this is getting but w/e, I've had a few You are talking about a strategy. As an overall strategy it sucks obv. But your individual decision to fold each hand is 0Ev. You don't own any money already in the pot . Your pot odds take account of this. Hence why we don't need 50% to call usually. 
Posted by grantorino

I wish people would think before posting! Please back up any posts with mathematically prove. It doesn't matter if the strategy sucks. I could employ this strategy if I so wanted (I wont for obvious reasons, but I could). It proves that folding is not 0ev (when in the sb, bb or after putting money into the pot) otherwise a strategy of folding 100% of the time would never be -ev.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : I wish people would think before posting! Please back up any posts with mathematically prove. It doesn't matter if the strategy sucks. I could employ this strategy if I so wanted (I wont for obvious reasons, but I could). It proves that folding is not 0ev (when in the sb or bb).
Posted by dub1

So I need proof but you don't? Your strat has nothing to do with it.

Obv you could employ this strategy. Obv you would lose money

Proof, ok

There is 30bb in pot we both have 85 behind

You jam. I win x%

I fold.. I don't win or lose any money so it's 0Ev

I call. I win (115*x%)-(85*(1-x)%). 

If the calc above results in a number >0 I should call

dub1

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : So I need proof but you don't? Your strat has nothing to do with it. Obv you could employ this strategy. Obv you would lose money Proof, ok There is 30bb in pot we both have 85 behind You jam. I win x% I fold.. I don't win or lose any money so it's 0Ev I call. I win (115*x%)-(85*(1-x)%).  If the calc above results in a number />0 I should call
Posted by grantorino

I give up. 

hhyftrftdr

It's 4nl.

It's QQ.

It goes in.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : I give up. 
Posted by dub1

Ok, I must be wrong.. You have had a couple of digs at me , doesn't really make your argument any stronger. 

I get your point about having an overall strat that loses money. I also think you need a coherent strategy through a hand. But an individual decision to fold is 0ev, you don't gain or lose chips. If you want to think different I think you also need to think differently about pot odds than the calcs earlier in this thread (I realise you didn't post them). 

If my own calc is wrong apologies I'm tired. 

grantorino

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold?:

In Response to Re: Pocket Queens, facing all in pre for 100 bb plus, call or fold? : I wish people would think before posting! Please back up any posts with mathematically prove. It doesn't matter if the strategy sucks. I could employ this strategy if I so wanted (I wont for obvious reasons, but I could). It proves that folding is not 0ev (when in the sb, bb or after putting money into the pot) otherwise a strategy of folding 100% of the time would never be -ev.
Posted by dub1

Folding all the time is -ev as an overall strategy

Folding an individual hand is 0EV. Once you put that blind in its not yours

rancid

An overall strategy can obviously be -EV.
So we can create toy games where we would obviously lose money using this strategy specially using a one street game example.

But we are working out EV on a one street situation where folding is 0EV.

We can safely assume that folding is never +EV so it's alwasy 0EV or -EV.

So if you wanted to use a straegy of folding the sb 100% of the time then it would be a -EV strat even though as a one street ev calc it would be 0EV.

You would have to work out multi street ev calc's to actually work out the EV of a srategy.

When you look at folding in certain point on any one street then you have to branch your ev calc.
So for example if you 3 bet and you get 4 bet and you branch you ev calc for call, fold, 5 bet. You could possibly see that folding is -EV as villians can make us -EV while calling or 5 betting are both +EV.
If calling or 5 betting are actually -EV then folding resuts in 0ev. Because it's all comparable and 0ev is essentially a baseline for what play's are -EV or +EV.