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Can I get away from this?
| hhyftrftdr | Small blind | 30.00 | 30.00 | 10200.00 | |
| brimicombe | Big blind | 60.00 | 90.00 | 9940.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Dai_Vader | Fold | ||||
| homersmpsn | Fold | ||||
| 5ausages | Raise | 120.00 | 210.00 | 9500.00 | |
| X | Call | 120.00 | 330.00 | 12655.00 | |
| hhyftrftdr | Raise | 360.00 | 690.00 | 9840.00 | |
| brimicombe | Fold | ||||
| 5ausages | Fold | ||||
| X | Call | 270.00 | 960.00 | 12385.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| hhyftrftdr | Bet | 775.00 | 1735.00 | 9065.00 | |
| X | Call | 775.00 | 2510.00 | 11610.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| hhyftrftdr | Bet | 1890.00 | 4400.00 | 7175.00 | |
| X | Raise | 8180.00 | 12580.00 | 3430.00 | |
2nd level of the Roller. Had hardly played a hand, not tangled with villain but had clocked them as weak/inexperienced from what I'd seen at the table.
Can I fold this in such a slow, deep structured tournament? Still have a very healthy stack behind me....
Comments
I think we should just fold, you're still super deep and you'll get a ton more chances to stack them in spots where you're not probably drawing to houses with 1 card to come.
EDIT and then sigh when he turns 89 cos you know he had it when you called
Get it in, man. We've got 20% even if we're behind and pot odds for the lot at 34%. We're not going to be behind 90%+ of the time, surely? Why can't we think that "weak inexperienced" players are getting carried away with two-pair or slow-playing weaker sets on the flop here?
Harry! Post it on the show thread, please. Let them see it.... I like it when they do the hidden card things, too. Do it for me!
Less experienced players imo will be VERY cautious in the early stages of the roller, and are gonna be nut peddling mostly.
Do plz get it on 861 (and then post result here cos I'm not watching lol). I reckon Harry folded and was correct to do so. Bet you villian has 9T!
...I've also just looked at the tournament lobby.
I know it sounds picky but imo it does really change it things. People early stages of the Roller reeeeeeallly don't wanna bust, or at least weaker players don't anyway. I mean no1 WANTS to lol... but ya know what I mean.
No different from we have to view certain spots differently in a £2 BH than we would if it was the £55 Primo.
no! ofc we cant.
Break the mouse spot!
It's no secret that I called, and was up against the turned straight! As soon as he raised, my heart kinda sank. I knew he/she had it, but I levelled myself into calling as I felt the villain could also do this with a lower set or top 2.
Feel like I'm making poor decisions lately, so it's somewhat reassuring to see the majority go broke here. Can also see Lambert's POV though. It looks like 9 10, it smells like 9 10. I knew, deep down, it was 9 10, yet I still couldn't fold.
Taking really poor MTT form into the double ME gtd week is kinda frustrating.
I've not sold myself very well but I'll be (90% certain) playing every main this coming week bar Wednesday when I'm at the City/Munich game. If anyone wants some action then just PM me.
Sigh.
Edit - double GTD's week is a week away, gives me 7 days to run/play better! Also means I should be able to play them all.
FWIW, I think it's even more of a fold because not only are we gonna see 9T an insane amount of the time, imo Harry's edge over the field of a Sky roller will be pretty massive and there's no need to just call it off and hope he has a smaller set (which is unlikely) when he can use his edge in tons of better spots.
Reminds me of something Thewy said a while ago about some situations where people are just like 'well you've got X so just cannot fold' but if you really think abuot the situation, I just don't think he's raising to this size without 9T here like ever.
My straight villain has just been on the show, Gina1990 who peeled in the BB with 8 2 from a 20bb stack after an utg 3x.
Sigh.
Lambert, I think we all knew Harry probably bust this hand from the thread title. I just think it's being way too nitty to fold here. We shouldn't be assuming we need reads to say that a villain can get it in without the nuts. We should need reads to tell us that they never do this without the nuts. The size of the buy-in doesn't constitute a reliable read.
Our pot odds and the chances we're way, way ahead make this a clear call.
You talk about Harry's edge but how big is his edge really going to be if he's folding the second nuts, with effective pot odds of 2:1, and no reads on the villain other than "weak, inexperienced"?
Yet they got all my chips, so perhaps I'm the chump
Obv an extreme example but to illustrate the point... someone takes this line in the 3rd level of the WSOP ME.... or someone takes this line in the 3rd level of a £2.30 BH.... which one readless are we more likely to think is super nutted?
His edge will be pretty big, we can't discount it cos of this 1 hand. Sometimes people stack off very deep with K high flushes against very obvious nut flushes, some people don't. To me, this is very obviously 9T, maybe I'm way off, and obv they have 9T here but we don't know and will never know if they'd have taken the same line with something else but I find it very hard to believe they would.
Snappy snap snap SNAP CALL.
Yeah he pops up with the nuts once in a while but a lot of the time he has worse.
I'd have to have a VERY SPECIFIC read to fold here.
And even then I'd probably still call.
You said villain was inexperienced. All the more reason this is a call IMO.
Yep.
Its a call.
Would've been more alarmed had they clicked it back on that turn card.
I like to think I'd have folded this live (was making some ridic folds in the Grand Prix this weekend), but in the 15 seconds or so that Sky give you I just couldn't do it. I'm not sure whether I've been coolered out the tournament or if I've perhaps unearthed an MTT leak that needs serious attention.
Loose passive player suddenly takes off = wow I've got the nuts
It's brutal Harry and ridic hard to fold in 15 seconds. I definitely wouldn't think of it as a big leak btw, don't think you'll be in this kinda spot very often lol.
Even if we had some specific reason to believe that this villain never gets it in without a massive hand, how are we to know that he doesn't consider QJ, JJ, 88 or 66 on this board to be the effective nuts?
I think we need steel-reinforced concrete reads, with so much money in the middle and such a massive hand, to fold in this spot. We don't have those reads, we only have an idea that some inexperienced players won't stack off without the stone colds.
I call. MattBates calls. TommyD calls. Yoyo calls. To have top set and only be losing to 1 very specific hand it'd be such a bad fold IMO. This is such a great opportunity to DU and start crushing the tournament.