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I still don't think we can fold. As I said in my other post, we can't know that their range is precisely the nuts and that they're not getting it in with weaker sets or two-pairs.
Even if we're giving them just a couple of weaker made hands, we're going to be a 98% favourite versus those hands with pot odds of 34%.
Even when they have the straight, we have nearly 23% equity. We need to say "This guy can only ever have specifically this one hand" in order for the fold to be good. We don't have that read. We have the fear of that, but fear's not a good reason to fold.
Yeah only cause he only plays the nuts! He probably check/folds the turn.
16 combos of 9T
3 combos of QJ
3 combos of 88
I'm ruling out Q8/J8 cos I just don't think they're likely enough, and I think 66/JJ/QQ if they're gonna raise would do it on the flop but we can add in them extra 9 combos (3 of each) if you like.
Absolute best if you include them all 50% of the time we have a 20% shot, 50% of the time we double.
Really wanna take that kinda gamble of busting when we could just fold and have 100+ BBs and a big edge over the field?
EDIT: In fact it wouldnt even be a 20% shot would it? Cos them having sets reduces our house outs and obv gives them quad outs
Can't do that against a passive player who likes to see a flop.
Too much of an assumption. I've seen players stack off with much worse thinking its the nuts.
But in level 2 of the biggest BI, deepest stacked, slowest MTT on the site?
Just because its a higher BI... it doesnt necessarily change the thought process and style of play. We have to consider a range of hands.
We beat most of villains range IMO. And even if we are behind we have multiple outs. Im not folding.
Really unlucky, 100% 15 seconds is not long at all, i prob sigh call.
Either way, i don't think it's a mistake just a cooler as someone else said. It could well be other hands, but ineperienced passive player who all of a sudden shows massive strength they normally have it.
I agree with Larson too - as soon as those weaker players have a 'raise-orgasm' it generally means the nuts.
Sixteen combos of 9T. Three combos of 88:
20640 / 19 = 1086
3 x 1086 = 3258
3258 x 97.73% = 3184
1086 x 16 = 17376
17376 x 22.73% = 3950
3184 + 3950 = 7134
So even when the villain has only one other hand in his range, we're only making a loss of 41 chips on a call of 7175.
Admittedly it's a "tournament life"/ICM/bubble factor question, whatever you want to call it, where the chips in our stack have a higher value than the ones in the middle. However, if he can have 88, why can't he have 66 or JJ or QJ?
So we need to put him on specifically 9T and only 9T for this fold to be correct. Even if we think 9T is nearly four times more likely than other hands, it's still a call.
Those who are saying this is a good situation for a time bank: In the words of Carlo Citrone "You're snap-calling and high-fiving the dealer!"
The idea that folding here is to protect your edge is crazy, in my opinion. You're folding the second nuts just because someone raised. We have no edge if we're folding in this situation. We're going to steal the blinds a bunch of times but fold all our big hands as soon as an unknown player raises us and justifying it on the basis of the buy-in being big. That's just not good.
This isn't 'just a raise' and it's not just because it's a bigger BI... but this villian has raised ONE HUNDRED big blinds more than our bet! People just don't do that even the tiniest bit light.
Follow your gut, man
Look, sat at the table I'm sure I'd have a bad feeling about this and think there's a really good chance I'm facing the nuts.
However, I have to be 100% sure that I'm facing the nuts to fold because, even if villain can have just one or two weaker hands, this is a losing fold.
We have no reads on this individual player so there is no way we can be 100% sure that they always have precisely the nuts. That means that, even with a gut feeling that we may be behind, the fold is necessarily a losing one and is, therefore, necessarily wrong.
Good players who follow their gut are following a gut feeling that has grown from millions of hands: Making good and bad decisions and learning from each. That gut instinct is based on experience of rational decision making. So when we have a gut feeling here, it should be in agreement with rational thought. It shouldn't override it.
Live poker is a different matter. I'm not suggesting you should follow Phil Hellmuth's gameplay, in particular, but in live play we have the ability to judge our opponents' confidence. If we face a big 5-bet from a normally nervous and tight guy who suddenly looks really comfortable, we can lay down KK. None of that information is available online.
It's not a question of gut feeling. It's a question of numbers, the strength of our hand and the likelihood that our opponent can have us beat. If you have any doubt at all about that "gut instinct" then folding is bad.
Regarding the raise size: It's a turn raise to twice the pot to almost set us in. It's irrelevant that it's 100 big blinds. It's a normal raise size, relative to the size of the pot and whether it's rational for the villain to think the money is going in on this turn. If he'd raised to 5k, would you say he looked weaker, even though we only have 7k back?
Obviously we think the villain is very strong. Our reads tell us he is almost certainly never holding a draw or airball and not overvaluing one-pair. However, we don't have reads that say he can never have weaker sets or two pairs. Against his range, we just have to call. We shouldn't be worried about it, either.
OK, I think the majority of us agree with it being a call but I wonder at what point do we start folding? JJ? 88? 66? All 2 pair hands are pretty easy folds IMO, but how high of a set do we need? I think JJ is where it gets really close. 88 or worse and I am comfortable in folding but I just don't know with jacks!!
@ Lambert: Did you see the rest of villains tourney play? I think earlier in the thread someone mentioned he got it in with 82 on an 8xx flop after calling a 3x raise pre. Does that look like someone who is scared and unwilling to put it in w/o the nuts? Rather it suggests he overvalues hands but is willing to go with something if he thinks it's ahead. Just because someone appers to be loose/passive doesn't mean they won't overvalue hands that they think are the nuts in a specific situation. They may be calling a lot because most of the time they only have a pair/draw at best but when they have 2 pair or better they will take off.
hh also said that they'd click backed river a few times - now unless they're picking up constant monsters then there's a good chance that they're raising relatively wide for value in some spots.
Was an all in right? So it's quite a big raise.
Slip makes the point really well, about going with instinct and gut feel. Clearly you fold, you have your stack, call and lose and you are out.
Not that it matters either way, we called and lost it's just a cooler.
essentially you should never fold
such a long thread