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My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play

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Comments

  • edited October 2013
    You cant on one hand say that you plan on using position to bluff him off the pot, and then describe his call with top pair questionabl, reasoning that you're hardly going to shove eg QT. Dont make a ton of sense, dude.

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    Okay thanks for all the input guys.  Will be interesting to see if im given 'friendly' advice I get if any when I post a hand looking for advice.
  • edited October 2013
    Im sure you will fella. Peeps are sound here. 

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    Im sure you will fella. Peeps are sound here.  Cheers,  TEDDY
    Posted by TeddyBloat
    Thanks Teddy. I have met some very friendly people on the tables and quite enjoy it to be honest. My error seems to have been posting a hand and leaving the alias of a popular forum member.
  • edited October 2013
    Jac's popular?

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    Jac's popular? Cheers,  TEDDY
    Posted by TeddyBloat
    All the people who commented in here seem to know of him :)
  • edited October 2013
    Was a joke mate. When I started here there wrre people who I was playing heads up who were willing to help me, and talk me through tough spots. Take em as you find, but most on here are gents. Jac especially.  Like the way you analyse ranges btw. Look forward to your input. Tis always hard when you dont know the ettiquette / tone of a forum. It aint 2+2 here. 

    Cheers,
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    Was a joke mate. When I started here there wrre people who I was playing heads up who were willing to help me, and talk me through tough spots. Take em as you find, but most on here are gents. Jac especially.  Like the way you analyse ranges btw. Look forward to your input. Tis always hard when you dont know the ettiquette / tone of a forum. It aint 2+2 here.  Cheers, TEDDY
    Posted by TeddyBloat
    Thanks Teddy and gl on the felt!
  • edited October 2013
    When we're talking about whether your plan to call pre-flop and then shove any non-Ace high flop is profitable, we can't assume that we know the exact texture of that flop. So whether the pre-flop call is profitable, based on our plan for the flop, is purely down to whether this play is going to be profitable on random, non-Ace flops. The numbers for the specific KJ5 flop are not relevant to the EV of your pre-flop plan.

    The numbers you've provided assume that you hit top-pair but that's not something you can assume pre-flop. So those numbers are only a justification for the pre-flop call on this particular flop, which is being results orientated.


    Even if we take the numbers you've given, there are a few issues.

    i) You don't seem to have accounted for Jac's KQ or KT type hands in any of your post-flop calculations.
    ii) You assume that Jac is bet-calling your shove on the flop with his bare nut-flush draws. He has nowhere near the correct odds to do that, and that's a problem for your logic on two fronts. I'll come onto that in a minute.
    iii) Your numbers assume that Jac is folding every time he checks the flop. He won't be, especially if he has any reads on you or if you actually do take the option of over-shoving. We have to make assumptions on people's reactions to our bets to make any EV calculations when we're talking about fold equity, etc., however, your overshove is so outside the norms that it would make Jac's response very difficult to predict.


    On the issue of his nut-flush draws:

    a) Jac is getting terrible odds to call with just Ace-high and a flush draw when you overshove. That means he's likely to fold all of these except perhaps AQ and AT because they have additional equity. This reduces significantly the 45% equity figure you're giving yourself against his bet-calling range. You're going to be crushed by his range if he's not calling with those hands.

    b) If Jac is making this call with Adxd on this board, he can only justify it by believing that his Ace-high is actually ahead some of the time. So if he does make that call, that really undermines your logic for calling pre-flop to bluff any non-Ace flop. You can't have it both ways.


    So the odds you're quoting aren't relevant to the EV of the pre-flop call, the assumptions you're making on the flop probably aren't right, and you're not including some of his range in your calculations.



    Moreover you need to examine your logic for not adjusting your play based on the texture of the flop. If we accept your calculations on the flop - which I don't think we should - we have to ask if shoving's the best thing to do.

    We can say that we're 53% against the range that Jac c-bets on the flop, so calling with top pair is definitely very profitable, given pot odds. However, we feel that if we shove, we can only be called by a range that is a 55% favourite against us. That means shoving is not profitable.

    We know we're putting that extra money in when we can only be called by a range that beats us. We force him to fold all the hands that we are beating which he was putting more money in with, and only call that extra 5k with hands that beat us.

    We need to work out the EV of raising as an entirely separate bet to the call.

    In the unlikely situation that we could find a way to justify as profitable putting those extra chips in, we would still need to find a way of defending it as being more +EV than the alternatives. That's not going to happen because we'd need Jac to be calling with a whole bunch of hands we're ahead of and, if he does do that, it undermines our argument for the pre-flop play.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : He did not know that I would call him that loose as he had not seen me show down any weak hands.  I did not call to hit 2 pair, that was just lucky.  If we hit the K top pair then I'm going with the hand as that was what I had decided pf. Any A lands then I'm giving up so if it's K high I'm hoping he doesn't have Ak, KQ, if so then I'm out, but I would expect a shove to fold out KJ KQ and all lower pairs. I'm shoving all non A flops with a face card and floating flop to shove all non A turns. Possibly it's a call but to berate my play just showed a lack of understanding upon his part of what I set out to achieve when playing the hand.  Does my plan make sense?
    Posted by DoubleAAA

    All of the above is terrible

  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : All of the above is terrible
    Posted 

    Thank you.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play:
    In Response to Re: My Favourite hand of the night for being berated because of my play : All of the above is terrible
    Posted by rancid
    It's a big +1 from me.
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