Thoughts?

gazza127

Not going to lie guys... theres too much text here to read.

If you could sum up your findings in bullet point form thatd be great!

F_Ivanovic

ffs logged out when I tried to post!!

How exactly are you going to exploit me by 3bet folding 22? If you decicde you're going to 4-bet bluff me then the majority of the time you will run into higher sets that will definitely not fold. Also this spot doesn't come up frequently but if it did I'd soon realise if you were trying to somehow exploit that and I'd adjust by no longer 3-bet folding 22.

Again we're playing readless on our opponent but we can still make reads based on the population. You think his range is made up of bluffs, BL thinks it's monsters and I believed it to be a mixture of one pair hands looking for cheap showdown and 2 pair hands with some sets. I also gave a range of hands and combinations of each one to prove that we're still by far ahead of his range here OTT. And when we're ahead of their range (that is more value than bluffs - KQ is still value even if looking for cheap showdown) then we want to be putting more money in! 

Going back to the river - so what, if you min-r the turn with K7 and are 3-bet by a random, what do you think their range is? Personally I think K7 is a bluff catcher at this point. But if villain just calls and then donks a blank river I'm thinking wtf can they have here? Any value hand wants to get more money in on the turn. All the draws missed... therefore I call.

rancid

So if we 3 bet turn what happens

 

Readless we got to assume that if we 4 bet we dead, so your 3 bet folding a set

 

If villain flats, they can flat with a better hand and what worse hands call – I think most will fold

 

Your really only 3 betting turn for value against Kx hands

 

With no reads, no level’s, no meta, no nothing – how can you be so certain with population reads that villain has Kx and will call - what else are you value raising against ? range please ?

F_Ivanovic

OK thing is I don't believe villain will flat with a better hand. 90%+ of the time I think if villain only flats the turn we are ahead with 22. Lots of villains love to slow play but when they min-r and then get 3-bet on the turn and they're holding a set they think "Hero obviously has a hand he wants to get it in with, lets just get it in now just in case a diamond falls on the river or a straight hits" It's the same with AA pre-flop - 90%+ of villains if they get 3/4bet when holding AA they assume Hero has a value hand and is never folding so will happily stick it in. 

Another hand similar to this was even on TOTPs. Think it was style vs someone. Style had bottom set and villain had raised the turn with 2 pair. Style then 3-bets and villain just flat calls! (and then calls river) He didn't overvalue 2 pair but he knew his hand was only a bluff catcher by now. Same with 2 pair here - you can raise for value but when your 3-bet you know your hand is almost always a bluff catcher so it makes no sense to shove.

I love how you say that I'm only 3 betting turn for value against Kx hands without thinking of how many combos of Kx hands there are (whether it be 2 pair or a pair). Answer: A LOT more than better value hands and random cheap bluffs.

rancid

Well, just show us your combi calcs man

what combis are calling


what combis are shoving

we may just disagree on range/combis but hey.... lets do some math yo!

edit: So your saying this - only issue I have is the inclusion of K7/K9 hands that happily call pre
I don't think we can extend the Kx beyond KQ, any weaker Kx and sure vill folds to the 3 bet and i don't think vil would raise turn with KJ/K10

call

K7

K9

KQ

K10dd

79

 

Fold - bluffs

67o

99

KJ<

 

Call or 4 bet

77

99

F_Ivanovic

I posted them before. 4 K7 combos, 6 K9 combos and 8 79 combos. 18 hands that are going to raise/call the turn but not shove. Then if he's block/bet raising with KT-KQ hands he might still calls a couple of them combos (also I didn't see this first time round but he could have KQ/KJ/KT with a flush draw) - So that's at least 21 hands that we beat that are calling a turn 3-bet. If not more. As opposed to only ~ 5 combos of sets that beat us.

rancid

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

I posted them before. 4 K7 combos, 6 K9 combos and 8 79 combos. 18 hands that are going to raise/call the turn but not shove. Then if he's block/bet raising with KT-KQ hands he might still calls a couple of them combos (also I didn't see this first time round but he could have KQ/KJ/KT with a flush draw) - So that's at least 21 hands that we beat that are calling a turn 3-bet. If not more. As opposed to only ~ 5 combos of sets that beat us.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

yh I removed K7/K9 but we still going to be facing biggers sets 26% of the time so I see the math of 3 betting set 2's.

Still think it heavily rests on knowing villian is capable of raising turns like with that range.

Would still prefer to see in my notes that villian has done this before, but I guess how we gonna find out right.

LnarinOO

interesting u also took this to a different forum-

given in yet

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

interesting u also took this to a different forum- given in yet
Posted by LnarinOO

I'm intrigued....

Blonde or =4?

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Thoughts?:

In Response to Re: Thoughts? : I'm intrigued.... Blonde or =4?
Posted by Lambert180

Found it.

LnarinOO

supprised u havnt given your thoughts on this hand lambo, seem quite interesting ?? 

Lambert180

Meh, I couldn't be bothered getting into a massive debate.

FWIW in short form, imo randoms who clickback the turn generally always have the effective nuts (in this case bigger sets) and sometimes bluffs. So I prefer flatting the turn and checking the river too.

That just seems like the super standard obvious ABC line to me. 3betting the turn may be fine with some decent reads and dynamics but we don't have any of that.