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In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: But I wasn't expecting a fold - I expected him to call, but I had the AK so knew I was in a strong position.
I think I actually didn't address the OP either, so I'll do that now.
If we shove pre-flop, we don't mind being called because we have a strong hand and will probably be favourites. If we say we will be called 30% of the time and will be a favourite, we add the expected profit from that to the 70% of the time we get the shove through and win the pot without a showdown. That is the expected return from the shove and we can say that it will certainly be very profitable.
There's a very important element to DYM's, MTT's and STT's that actually tells us that the first chip is more valuable than the second, which is more valuable than the third, etc. That is called Independent Chip Modelling and basically means that taking down the 250 chips at no risk to our stack can be better for us than getting our full stack in the middle as a favourite, and that's particularly true in a DYM or near the bubble of a satellite. So we're actually happier to add that 25% to our stack than we are to get it all-in as a 70% favourite, because those first chips are more valuable than the rest.
If we call or min-raise, knowing that we're going to see a flop, it's not so easy to work out how profitable it will be. We know that our AK will miss the flop 2/3 of the time, and that means that if we can't then win the pot by c-betting, we're in trouble. Even if we can win the pot by c-betting a lot of the time, we still have to ask if that's more profitable for us than shoving pre-flop would have been...
When we make our decisions, it can't be about "caution" or "fear". We just make the decisions that are most +EV. If we make the most profitable decision in the long-run, whatever the result of this particular hand, we've made the correct decision. If we're making decisions out of cautiousness or fear, we might save ourselves in any given hand, but in the long run we're losing money.
So the best thing in this hand, I think, would be to shove pre-flop. We know that we're going to take down those 250 chips a large proportion of the time. Most of the time we're forcing our opponents to fold a worse hand than ours, though. In cash poker, that would be bad but, because it's a DYM we prefer them to fold their hands with 50%, 40% or 30% equity, since those chips in the middle are more valuable than chips in the opponent's stack.
In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: That was a very interesting post, particularly interested in your paragraph on ICM which I have heard about, but had no idea what it is!
Hmmm, I did raise the hand (rather than shoving pre-flop) knowing that if I missed the flop, I would just fold and continue with what would still be a decent chip stack. I knew that if an A or K came down on the flop, I would probably be ahead - even if he had a pocket pair. However if I shoved pre, and got a call, I would be in a coinflip situation if he had the pocket pair.
I do see what you're saying, and if this was an MTT then I totally agree to shove pre, but as the top three players recieve the same prize here - and I had a healthy chip stack (relative to other players anyway), surely it is better to focus on chip preservation rather than gaining chips? I guess that was my mentality as I knew in a few hands time we would be down to three players purely because others had knocked themselves out.
We're always dependent on our opponents making mistakes if we're going to make a profit in poker. However, if we're not committing to hands as strong as AK, we need our opponents to be so bad that they take themselves out of the game, while we just sit there.
Some of the time that will happen. The vast majority of the time, it won't. We can, and frequently should, play a tight range of hands if we know our opponents are going to make lots of mistakes. That range can't be so tight that we're not willing to commit with AK and just 10BB.
This is an especially big problem if, when we get our strong hands, we choose to commit some of our chips to the pot - in this case more than 20% of our stack - and later fold anyway. That's much worse than just folding the hand at the first opportunity. We may still have the best hand and we're folding our equity in the pot, having contributed many of our valuable chips to it.
If we're doing this, we're the player that is making the big mistakes. We're the one that's knocking themselves out. We're just doing it over the course of three or four hands, rather than one.
Chip preservation can only be achieved by winning pots, otherwise the blinds eat us up. So to preserve our chips, we have to be willing to put them on the line sometimes.
It's also a lot more fun having the opportunity to be the outright winner.
Having said that, I totally understand why you are saying shove and in any other tournament other than DYM, I would totally agree! I really respect your opinion Lambert, after all you are a professional now! Do not want you to be offended that I don't agree with what you're saying, but my DYM experience tells me differently. Maybe I will come round to your way of thinking eventually with more and more experience though.
In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: Interesting words ... but with the blinds 50/100, and with the way everyone was playing, I knew the tournament would be over in 1 or 2 orbits. I felt like even if I called and then folded post-flop (which I didn't do), then I would still have the chips to make the top three.
In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: I could do that! I won't play too many because for my diary it's better to play DYM's at this stage - but I'll play a couple over the next few days :-)
+1 BorinLoner on the 6max
If you are playing for enjoyment and to learn then definitely play 6max
I am testing a theory that dyms are better for multi-table grinding - but 6max is much more fun and you need broader skills.
The "correct" line is just the one that figures to be the most profitable. The most +EV line will differ when we have reads from when we're in a vacuum.
In this hand I think we can definitely say that the long term EV is better with a pre-flop shove than any other line. Unless there is a compelling argument to the contrary, we can say that the pre-flop shove is likely to be correct in these circumstances.
If we're that sure that our opponents are going to knock themselves out, then we should probably be folding pre-flop with the AK. The pre-flop min-raise, intending to play fit-or-fold on the flop is just too expensive when it costs us 20% of our stack. It's also possible that we hit the flop and lose our stack to a hand that would have folded to our pre-flop shove.
You also have to bear in mind that the other players at the table will see that you have become shorter stacked and may very well alter the way they're playing.
Generally speaking, it's definitely going to be best in this type of situation to shove pre-flop. If we're really certain that the other players are effectively going to bust each other, then we can afford to fold every hand except AA and sit on our stack for as long as possible. That's a very big risk to take, though, because a lot of the time our read may prove to be wrong.
In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: They don't? That's why there is a debate going on ..
In Response to Re: Did I make mistakes here?: This is a very good point and something I hadn't actually considered. I can see where you are coming from a bit more clearly now. I guess one of my issues is that I have a problem with AK. Everytime I have this hand, and go all-in pre-flop, I lose to a pocket pair - that's every time, without fail. It's very annoying. Maybe subconciously that was another factor which meant I didn't shove.
Actually, I do believe a strength I have over other players is the ability to know when I should be playing loose and when I should be playing so tight because other players will be knocking each other out.
Whether it's a good idea to do this half-stack raise against a weak player with a monster hand depends entirely on our read as to whether they'll call more often than they would for our full stack. If that's the case, it's fairly obvious what we should do. Of course we want to bet the greatest amount the villain will call.
Good suggestion