Bounty Hunter bubble, simple BvB spot, call or fold?

NColley

Ok, I feel like seeing that hand is vital info.

Even though technically its probably not a cEV call, I feel like the times we win the bounty gives us enough £ev to make the call with our stack size.

GaryQQQ

Thanks to all who have posted, there's been great input on this thread. What initially appears to be a trivial decision is actually quite complex. 

I still prefer a call.

My stack is big enough to take this small hit with only a minimal impact on my chances of winning the tournament. Also I'm keen to get to final table sooner rather than later because the chipleader is using the bubble dynamic to run over three short stacks on the other table. The arrival of second and third in chips on his table will put a stop to that. Those three head-prizes will become available to me too, they aren't available while they're on the other table. Lets say I get dealt a premium in the next hand, I'm much more likely to get paid at final table with three shorties ready to double or bust post-bubble than I am at this three-handed table.

IDONKCALLU

easy call imo   even without the head prize  8/10 ya gonna be about 65/35   the other 2 times id say ya crushed meaning he has an overpair

DoubleAAA

If villian is shoving 66% we're 33.3% v 66.7%.  We're getting over 2/1 to call, we have a 33.3% chance of collecting villians bounty of £9+ and IF we lose, it has little impact upon our stack.  We also have the advantage of going to final table and stopping the other big stack from manipulating the bubble (as already been mentioned).  With all of these factors, I just fail to see why folding would be the 'better' option here. 

The times we lose here, just how much value of our stack is lost in monetary terms?  I think you will find it will certainly be far less than the £9 we stand to gain if we win not to mention the added chips and added value to our stack, thus making it a +EV call all day long.

Oh and fwiw IF villian was a complete nit and was only shoving any PP, any A or any broadway we would still be 30.3% to win.

Also take a look at this range 16.9%: 55+,A5s+,KJs+,A7o+,KJo+,QJo and yet we would still be 28.5%!

Guys, we're talking of like a 5% EV difference from a wide to nit shoving range.  Sorry, but good luck to you if you can ever find a fold here.

GELDY

The table info only appeared at the end of the thread
without that my initial comments stand