arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling

IDONKCALLU

I coulda folded i had 5 big blinds with jj but that woulda been way to nitty even tho there was 3 people below me had to go for it n ran up against aces sigh

mkgunner073£114IDONKCALLU074

GELDY

I know what you mean IDCU

Sunday Super Stack

Gatherer	0	3	£54
GELDY	0	4

But you couldn't fold JJ in that spot - unless it was a sat

DoubleAAA

Unlucky, but yeah, you can't really fold there, even though you're sixth sense is telling you that you're going to be bubble boy lol

unknown_username

Yes it's no joke the bubble

VILLAS-BOAS 9th.......£5,000,000

tomo_efc......10th....................

Lambert180

Tbh, I think it's a fold, I'm not 100% but I'm pretty sure ICM would say it's a fold. There were people on the stone bubble with 1 small blind (one was sat to my left) and multiple people with less than 5xBB

Yes we should play for the win blah blah, but doubling here doesn't hugely improve our chances of progressing in the tourney anyway whereas folding we're an almost cert to get £114.

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling:

There were people on the stone bubble with 1 small blind (one was sat to my left) and multiple people with less than 5xBB Posted by Lambert180

Blimey, sounds like an uber nit-fest with loads of players blinding out for a min-cash. The guys with stacks must have been loving it.

Credit to IDCU for shipping the jacks. He who dares wins (or bubbles).

Slipwater

Unlucky, Donk. I think I would probably ship the jacks as well... then just close my eyes until the hand is over!

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling:

Tbh, I think it's a fold, I'm not 100% but I'm pretty sure ICM would say it's a fold. There were people on the stone bubble with 1 small blind (one was sat to my left) and multiple people with less than 5xBB Yes we should play for the win blah blah, but doubling here doesn't hugely improve our chances of progressing in the tourney anyway whereas folding we're an almost cert to get £114.
Posted by Lambert180

I do think a lot of people under-estimate min-cashing. Yes, we play a tournament to win but we are not going to win the tournament on the bubble. 

That being said I think JJ here is just too strong to fold.

DOHHHHHHH

I think it's a fold on reflection.

You've sacrificed any realistic chance of making the top 10 by folding down this far, and even laddering to 40th/30th/20th isn't much of an increase so even a double here isn't doing your chances of a deep run much good.

You'd satted in and more, so the £100+ is all profit and your roll isn't as strong as it once was.

Get busy sooner preferably, but fold now having left it this late.

Slipwater

I think I probably ship any pocket pair 7s and above, along with AK - A10.

DOHHHHHHH

edit* if u were first in. shove. Think you said there was action in front of you though.

Maybe contradicted myself, but I wouldn't ship it over an open.

Lambert180

I'm happy to be proven wrong but I really don't see how we can ship here.

When we fold we have £114 basically locked up 100% of the time.

When we jam, some of the time we get folds and our stack is 6.5xBB instead of 5xBB (virtually zero difference to our chances of winning)

When we get called, we're probably facing at least 1 over and either way best case scenario is an 80/20, AND when we do win, it's still a tiny difference in our ability to win the tourney from there.

Bear in mind 73rd was £114 and a cash didn't even reach £200 until the top 20. I just don't think we make enough top 20s from this position to negate the fact we are giving up a guaranteed £114

EDIT: If JJ is right and there was action before you, it's a stone wall fold imo

GaryQQQ

A lot depends on position. If folded to on the button or SB I'm shipping JJ all day with 5BB, bubble or no bubble, shorter stacks or no shorter stacks.

As position worsens it gets harder to shove I suppose, from UTG it's probably an ICM fold.

Personally I look for a shove spot before I slip below 10BB. I'd rather gamble for a chance of a deep run than blind out to lock-up a min-cash.

jordz16

Yeah pretty easy fold there, but should be looking to ship it well before you got that low

IDONKCALLU

there was a utg min raise n i shoved in the bb pretty std imo

Slipwater

Lambert is probably right, as far as the math is concerned, but (in most cases) a pair of jacks to a poker player is a hand to run with.

It's extremely hard in those few seconds you have to think about it - to check the lobby for when the prizes increase to a reasonable amount; to look at the other tables and see if you will definitely make the cash if you fold; and to go against instinct and lay them down... only to see someone shoving with 9s instead and doubling up.

In a live game, with more time to think, yeah, perhaps you do fold and you make the money. But online, with that timebar dropping?

Shove.

IDONKCALLU

so easy to nit up n lock the cash   they showed this hand on 861 coz i bubbled n busted

can u imagine if they showed this hand and i folded the jj redmond lee would be like wtf i cnt believe he done that u have like 4bb get it in

Lambert180

If there is a mr UTG I think it's a definite fold, all day

THEROCK573

ul donk, for what its worth im never folding JJ here either.

Lambert180

Always hard for them to do perfect analysis on the show, he might not know it's the stone bubble, he deffo won't know the other stacks etc, and he has a split second to talk about a hand cos they can't have silence, so he doesnt even get the 10 seconds that we get.

DOHHHHHHH

I'd get jacks in too.

But I bet there will have been 4/5/6/7 spots I'd have taken before this to be either chipped up or out already.

Imo I dnt think you can put all your eggs in the 'min-cashing basket' and then change your mind at this stage.

It's all out to min cash, or play to make a run at winning the tournament.

You got caught inbetween the 2 and unfortunately ended up with nothing.

 

GELDY

In Response to Re: arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling:

I'd get jacks in too. But I bet there will have been 4/5/6/7 spots I'd have taken before this to be either chipped up or out already. Imo I dnt think you can put all your eggs in the 'min-cashing basket' and then change your mind at this stage. It's all out to min cash, or play to make a run at winning the tournament. You got caught inbetween the 2 and unfortunately ended up with nothing.  
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

I little arrogant maybe DOHHHHHHHH
we have no information as to why donk had 5 bigs. He may have just lost a big hand and
certainly nothing to say he has been trying to min cash.

GELDY

and as for doubling up not being of much use to winning the tournament
piffle

you are all saying how if he had a bigger stack ie double it would be a better position to be in

I think it all depends on how one feels one is playing and running
sure if you have given up on trying to win then fold for the min cash
but if playing for the win you really need a get out of jail card pdq
and jj may well be your best shot

DOHHHHHHH

Sorry, have spoken to donk off thread about the hand, so knew it wasn't an 'accident' that got us into this spot. 

Often guilty of posting stuff like that using more information than is available to people who have only seen the thread.

Donk has made plenty using this risk averse style, I know it works well on sky for lots of players.

But think on this occasion he'd be better off being dealt 23o than JJ.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1F5BLLFAeM

IDONKCALLU

i did have 25k chips but then lost a 36k pot i had ace jack  flop j 10 5  i min raised pre guy min reraised so i called in pos   he had ak   he bet flop 3k i think i called the turn card was a king he checked so disguised hes hand i check back river a blank 2 

he bet 7 k i sigh called after that hand only left me with 8k

IDONKCALLU

i think if i have 4 bigs or 10 bigs here its irrelevant i ship with 10 bigs aswell with an utg pre

GELDY

In Response to Re: arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling:

.  Often guilty of posting stuff like that using more information than is available to people who have only seen the thread. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

my bad - but would be helpful to know

bbMike

In Response to Re: arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh i hate bubbling:

i think if i have 4 bigs or 10 bigs here its irrelevant i ship with 10 bigs aswell with an utg pre
Posted by IDONKCALLU

This should be relevant as with 4 bigs you have zero fold equity. It's a better shove with 10BB imo.

hhyftrftdr

You not consider 3bet folding your jacks out of a >5bb stack?

IDONKCALLU

lol hh 

not really bbmike as a utg min raise if i have 10 bigs still not much f/e

Lambert180

Course it matters and you do have FE with 10xBB. If someone opens like KJ with 18xBB, doesn't mean they want to call off more than 50% of their stack when a shorty shoves on the stone bubble risking being bubble boy so obv has a strong hand.

Also, the bigger our stack is the more it improves your chances of going deep and so becomes more worth it. Like if you've got 4xBB, there's no point gambling the £114 just so you can double up to a stack that'll barely be any better and probably just mean you getting in a race/flip in the next orbit or two anyway.

Whereas, say we have 20xBB, then we may take spots on the bubble where we can potentially bust but that's because the benefit of having a 40xBB can be massive and can really make a difference to going all the way. Going from 5xBB to 10xBB doesn't help us that much, so the risk is just the same, but the reward is much lower.