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A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!
Scenario:
Bounty Hunter MTT, 6 max, all players have 2000 chips, blinds are 20/40, hero is UTG with QdQh
Hero raises to 140, gets 4 callers (quite common in BHs) {size of PF raise is for another discussion). BB folds.
740 in pot, hero's stack is 1860
Flop is Qs5d7d
This is the question. What is the correct amount to bet here?
Checking and potentially giving a free card is horrible. So a bet is a must. But how much?
We're immensely strong, and have redraws to a boat. But we also know that some of these players will have 68, 46 or any two diamonds (or maybe even chasing bounties with 34, 89 etc). These are the kind of hands that BH players love to see flops with and as there are four of them, at least one, maybe two of them must be drawing.
So how much to bet?
a) If we shove, we're losing value with our top set. They will/should all fold. That can't be right. It's also a scared play.
b) If we bet ¾ pot, the villains are looking at a 1240 pot with their flush/straight draw with only 485 to add in, so a call is almost mandatory.
c) Suppose we bet 1,000 of our 1,860 stack. The pot is now 1,740 and any straight or flush draws do not theoretically have the odds to draw (though they often will! Many BH players can never lay down a flush draw), so 1,000 seems the 'correct' bet. But this overbet doesn't really exist - there is really no difference between this bet and the shove as we're never folding our set to someone coming over the top. Basically, we're losing value, just as if we'd shoved.
So what is the correct thing to do? I genuinely don't know!
Comments
as he was the aggressor pre hes got to continue his story & bet aound 500/550
I.e. preflop pot 740
Flop bet 500
Total Pot 1240
Cost for us to call 500
Therefore we need 40% equity (500/1240)
If we use your formula it's 500/1740 = 28%.
Actually I'm 99% certain we don't include our call when calculating equity needed otherwise we're giving ourselves odds to win our own money. I'm happy to be corrected though.
I bet nothing. The flop isn't that scary. Decent draws, lower sets or somebody holding the other queen will start the betting for you and make it much easier to get stacks in.
I think on balance betting is slightly better but c/ring isn't bad imo.
If it's a 50% pot bet opponent will only need 25% equity to break even as hes getting 3/1. IF it's a pot bet opponant will only need 33% equity to break even as hes getting 2/1. So betting 550 into 1290 he'll be getting odds of 5/2 so he need approx 29% equity to break even.
Odds of hitting a straight draw or flush on turn are approx 20% so a 60-70% bet looks good here.
Thats better, with the help of dueces cracked poster.
if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1.
that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] =
33% equity.
people have conflated the two ideas
So 550/1290=42 are actually pot odds( approx get 2.5 42's into 100) so pot odds are approx 5/2.
To Calculate our equity we add on the amount to call +pot then divide amount to call with so 550/1740=28%.
I read your post before it wasdeleted and it was pretty solid. I made the same mistake as others.
Also knowing what equity we need to break even on our bet to what equity we need when calling is slighty different.
IE if we bet 100 into a 200 pot than we need 33% equity to break even on the bet( not counting our opponants call) but facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot we only need 25% equity as we are getting 3/1 pot odds so how we calculate equity need to break even on a bet to to equity to break even on a call must be different. So some of what i say above must be wrong somehow.
we bet 100 into 200=300 pot ,than we must add on another 100 =400 so its 25% equity is our break even point in the hand if we bet 100 into a 200 pot.
To get 33% we would need to bet 200 into 200=400 + Opponants call =600/200=33%
If we bet 100 into 200 we have to include another 100 (opponants call) . 100/400=25%. So betting 100 into 200 we need 25% equity to break even on our bet.
On flip side facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot will be 100/400=25% is the break even point in equity needed.
So whatever equity needed when we make a bet to break even on a bet, is the same equity needed for out opponant to break even on his call.
Calulating equity needed when calling a bet will be dividing amount needed to call by P+C so 1290+550=1740
550/1740=31%
By 1290/550 is actually working out what pot odds we have ie 1290/550=2.34/1 and not our equity need to break even.
With help of Dueces Cracked poster.