A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!

mugsy78

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

you 100% do include your bet to get the equity in % if the pot is 200 and the bet 100 then you can use a ratio and say the pot is laying 2 to 1. that is the same as saying 100/[100+200] = 33% equity. people have conflated the two ideas
Posted by TeddyBloat

Another bit to add is that if we are pure bluffing and need our opponent to fold, than thats a different story

TeddyBloat

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : OK. This calculation is flawed because you're not including opponants call. This threw me a little as i was getting different results when calc equity needed to break even on a bet than to break even on a call. If we bet 100 into 200 we have to include another 100 (opponants call) . 100/400=25%. So betting 100 into 200 we need 25% equity to break even on our bet. On flip side facing a call of 100 in a 300 pot will be 100/400=25% is the break even point in equity needed. So whatever equity needed when we make a bet to break even on a bet, is the same equity needed for out opponant to break even on his call. Calulating equity needed when calling a bet will be dividing amount needed to call by P+C so 1290+550=1740 550/1740=31% By 1290/550 is actually working out what pot odds we have ie 1290/550=2.34/1 and not our equity need to break even. With help of Dueces Cracked poster.
Posted by mugsy78

sorry i meant to say "you absolutely do need to include your CALL"

not "bet". brainfart moment sorry.

to calculate the equity of a bet you need to combine fold equity with actual pot equity when called.

fold equity + pot equity = EV of bet

one formula we can use:

EV of bet = [Fe x Pi] + [1-Fe]x[Pe x Pii - I]

Fe = % of opponents range that will fold to bet

Pi = the pot before bet

[1-Fe] just gives us his calling range in %

Pe = our equity v villains calling range

Pii = pot we will win

I = investment

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mugsy78

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do!:

In Response to Re: A bounty hunter scenario. No idea what to do! : sorry i meant to say "you absolutely do need to include your CALL" not "bet". brainfart moment sorry. to calculate the equity of a bet you need to combine fold equity with actual pot equity when called. fold equity + pot equity = EV of bet one formula we can use: EV of bet = [Fe x Pi] + [1-Fe]x[Pe x Pii - I] Fe = % of opponents range that will fold to bet Pi = the pot before bet [1-Fe] just gives us his calling range in % Pe = our equity v villains calling range Pii = pot we will win I = investment ------
Posted by TeddyBloat

Good stuff Teddy, i had a brain f art earlier in the thread hence the "lol" post.

But you inadvertantly highlighted how to work out if its going to be profitable to bluff if we have 0% equity in a hand.

If we bet 100 into 200 we need our opponent to fold more than 33% of the time for our pure bluff to be profitable. 100+200=300  100/300=33%

Been a good thread though, stimulated my little brain ;0

BigBluster

Very interesting discussion and thanks to everyone for taking the time to respond. The responses rode the range from a check (with a view to check-raising all-in) to a shove!

The consensus seemed to be to bet about 550 (thereby giving players the odds to call to a straight or flush) and get it in on a safe turn. But are we ever going to fold an 'unsafe' turn?

gracie24

We are forgetting implied odds if two or more go with the 550 bet. We lose if a flush or a str8 hits without us improving. Shove and take the easy money rather than risk loosing all of it. With two or more callers the odds of a nasty outcome will get greater and greater.