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30BB am i better off to just wait for a hand with jamming potential than call 3xBB with this
| robert369 | Small blind | 150.00 | 150.00 | 9760.00 | |
| Omen69 | Big blind | 300.00 | 450.00 | 8700.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| timbobingo | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 900.00 | 1350.00 | 5122.50 | |
| BANKIT | Fold | ||||
| craigcu12 | Call | 900.00 | 2250.00 | 8375.00 | |
| robert369 | Fold | ||||
| Omen69 | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| x | Bet | 1125.00 | 3375.00 | 3997.50 | |
| craigcu12 | Fold | ||||
Comments
If we give the villain even a fairly tight range, say all pairs 55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQ, KJ, QJ you have a massive 46% equity preflop.
A 3-bet shove is probably better than a call against aggresive opponents who are going to put you under pressure post-flop.
Another option, if you've got the balls for it, and your image isn't that of a maniac, is to flat call pre-flop then shove over the c-bet on any non-ace flop, hit or miss. A big part of his range will be forced to fold including ace-high hands and small/mid pairs that would have called a pre-flop shove and are still ahead now, you'll still have outs against most holdings if called.
i had only just moved onto this table so i didn't know enough about him and his 3betting, so going my standard thinking it
seem to be like wasting chips doing it with QJ and KJ as he would be in big trouble vs most of the jams and if he folds then he has wasted 3bb.
The effective stack when the action comes to us pre-flop is not 20BB, it's 30BB. We still have two players yet to act that have us covered. So our shove would be a 30BB shove which, when called, has us in all kinds of problems. Anyway, as Lambert has said, when we shove 20BB and are called we're probably in trouble with KQ. I don't see how we can shove profitably unless we think we're either going to be called really light or get folds an absolutely huge proportion of the time.
This is why we need some information on our opponent.
We can call pre-flop if we think villain's 3x range in EP is relatively light and he's going to stack off light post-flop. So we need our one-pair hands to be good a high proportion of the time. KQ is a pretty strong one-pair making hand. Alternatively, if he's just going to play face-up post-flop and check-fold lots, even as the pre-flop aggressor, then we can call.
With no reads, it's probably best to assign a nitty range for the 3x in early position from 20BB. That would lead to a bit of an annoying fold. However, if we've been at the table with this player for even a couple of orbits, we should have some idea of his range.
Are you guys advocating we blind out while waiting for JJ+ or AK only? Waiting for premiums when shallow is not the way to win MTTs.
My prefered play here is to flat call, then shove on 100% of non-ace flops, hit or miss. I expect enough folds (and enough equity when called) to make this a profitable play.
We will win on ace-high flops sometimes too. For example the villain may to too scared to fire at say an AJ2 flop if he holds pairs 33-TT.
Shoving 100% of non A high flops just cannot be profitable. Your shoving here on a 7h8h9h board?
To simplify the maths I've assumed 20BB effective stacks exactly. I'm gonna give the villain the same opening range as above and a fairly tight raise/calling range of TT+, AK, AQs, KQs. That puts 79 possible raise/folding combos in his range, 42 raise/calling combos (both with KQcc removed).
We shove 20BB with 4.5BB in the pot.
79/121 or 65.3% of the time our shove gets a fold and makes 4.5BB profit.
42/121 or 34.7% of the time we are called.
Our KQs has 45.18% equity against the villains calling range.
When called there is 41.5BB in the pot, our 45.18% equity is worth 18.75BB , so our called shove loses 1.25BB on average.
(65.3% x 4.5BB) + (34.7% x -1.25BB) = +2.5BB
So using the ranges above a shove shows a 2.5 big blinds profit. Folding shows zero profit.
Shoving and winning also sets us up to make a run at winning this thing. Nobody ever wins a tournament by folding. You can't go on a heater when you fold. In tournaments he who dares wins (disclaimer; he who dares wins in the long run, though not every time).
Tinkering with the calling range won't make much difference; if you make it tighter we have less equity when called, though that is balanced by the fact that we get more folds too.
Very occasionally one of the blinds will wake up with a calling hand, though this won't happen nearly enough to make a significant dent in our +2.5BB average profit.
it's not that we wanting to wait for premiums and Ak or AQ before doing anything, what makes this appear to be such a big risk is the opening bet he choose to use preflop when he was UTG+1 and if someone does a shove i'm sure he will want to call now that he has did a raise of 3xBB.
if he is 3xBB preflop UTG+2 he knows their is still 2 that could call who would be in position so again if he is going to raise preflop and the flop were to come AJx if he is then going to check with 22-1010 then the last thing he wants to be doing is raising 3xBB because a raise that size and he is sure to either get 77+ AJ+ or KQs.
What I mean is, if you play the hand, you have to treat it as any other suited connector, you are playing for a straight or flush, since when you hit a K high flop or Q high flop, the only action your'e likely to get is from AK/AQ or better.
With these stack sizes, you are better off folding. Being in position is of little significance when you don't have the chips to make moves.
If you flop an open ended straight or flush draw, and your opponent pots it, you cannot fold.
Now you either have to shove with potentially 40% equity, or flat for 1/3 of your stack (in total) and face calling all in at the turn with 20% equity. (Assuming you miss).
And those are the scenarios IF you even flop a big draw.
I like playing suited connectors, but at this stage in the tourney, it has to be a fold.
Also, the way your opponent played it suggests he has JJ/QQ/KK/AA. His bet sizing shows he is willing to get it in, but doesn't want to scare to off.
Yes, I 100% would. My hand strength is irrelevant to my decision to shove on any non-ace flop, I'm only thinking of the villains hand-strenth. That flop is 10x more likely to be super-scary to the villain than it is to help him.
Nobody was putting JQ, TJ, T9, 98, 76 or similar in his 3x opening range. Can he call there with AK, or any other ace-high hand without a heart?
To me it sounds like middle and low pairs are what you putting him on here, so if someone does then do a shove preflop he would have wasted 3BBs worth of chips.
when i look at this hand i'm probably thinking myself that J10 is a hand with greater winning potential than KQ.
Knowing that if KQ were reraised preflop the hands we are wanting to call are going to fold instead we will be up against the more dominant kicker or a few flips vs 77-JJ so we would be best off making the call.
It's on the flop that things go in favour of J10 rather than KQ
if the flop comes K high or Q high the J10 can escape without much trouble at all but with KQ we have hit our pair so will make the call but what we won't want to do is jam as that will remove the worst hands leaving us beat most days.
A much better flop would be a flop that was J high because if he's holding AK and AQ we might be able to push him off them both by doing a shove and maybe the smaller pairs will fold too all we are expecting is AA KK QQ AJ and sets but again this is where J10 has got the advantage over KQ.
with KQ their is big problems as AA and KK mean KQ needs runner runner, QQ will mean that it only has 3 Ks that will be of any help, the only hand that does not give it mayhem is AJ.
with J10 things are totally differant as that can do a shove on the flop to protect from the over cards and as long as the hand is not a set then were are certain to still have outs on the turn.
as for flops 9 high well they are only just in favour of KQ because JJ is definately going to need runner runner if he is facing over pairs except 1010 where as KQ is safe against all but KK and AA
Mucking a hand as powerful as KQs pre-flop to a single action at any stack depth (when readless) is not the way to win poker tournaments. Those advocating a pre-flop fold are too nitty for their own good.
Villain's range for even c-betting a 8h9h10h is gonna be heavily weighted towards overpairs/big flush draws. Jamming a flop like this with so little equity is not going to be even close to profitable imo.
Fwiw I agree that we should flat preflop.
If we flat call pre-flop there is 7.5BB in the pot. Let's say the villain c-bets 4BB, there is now 11BB in the pot.
Such a co-ordinated flop is highly unlikely, however how often will the villain hold a hand which justifies calling off the rest his stack for his tournament life on such a scary flop? Can he call with AK/AQ without Ah? Can he call with any pair 77 or below? Can he call with the same hand as us?
We're shoving 9BB to win 11BB, so we need to get the shove through less than 50% of the time to show an immediate profit, and that's without factoring in the equity we have when called.
The 3 hearts on the board that means 58% of the time the villain will have no heart in his hand at all. The chance of him holding a made flush is only 2.5%.