Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??

ShaunyT

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
P6	Small blind		250.00	250.00	3164.00
WEEDSTER	Big blind		500.00	750.00	37566.00
	Your hole cards	Q A
Si_Pies	Fold
ShaunyT	Raise		1500.00	2250.00	22591.00
Alexx26	Fold
P6	Fold
WEEDSTER	Call		1000.00	3250.00	36566.00
Flop
		5 9 6
WEEDSTER	All-in		36566.00	39816.00	0.00
ShaunyT	Fold
WEEDSTER	Muck
WEEDSTER	Win		3250.00		3250.00
WEEDSTER	Return		36566.00	0.00	39816.00

Too nitty? I have an above average stack. Would have been chip leader if I hit. Didn't fancy throwing away 3 hours of play drawing to a flush. Thoughts??

BigBluster

Great fold. In a cash game you would've snapped him off. Also, if first to act you'd have been quite happy to move in yourself. But in a MTT in the situation described this is a fold. Very well played.

In the cold light of day, it is undoubtedly the correct play. In the heat of battle I'm not sure I could have done it.....

hhyftrftdr

This is a simple fold if we are, as you say, on the bubble and an above average stack. Cash and standard MTT, we probs snap off. Not here though.

TBH you could probably just open fold this. Just no need to play the hand. You say you would've been chip leader, but in a flat payout structure things like that go out the window. Survival instincts should kick in when playing a sat...

F_Ivanovic

We're not playing a sat?

BigBluster

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

This is a simple fold if we are, as you say, on the bubble and an above average stack. Cash and standard MTT, we probs snap off. Not here though. TBH you could probably just open fold this. Just no need to play the hand. You say you would've been chip leader, but in a flat payout structure things like that go out the window. Survival instincts should kick in when playing a sat...
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Don't get this.

Lambert180

Easy fold, while our equity is good, some of our strength is in FE cos atm we have A high and we have no idea if any of our overs are live. We have 40+ BB and have only committed 3BB so far. Definite fold.

Also it might not even be a snap in cash, if we have reads our overs are likely no good cos this is what he does with 2pr/sets then its a fold

RyanC7

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

This is a simple fold if we are, as you say, on the bubble and an above average stack. Cash and standard MTT, we probs snap off. Not here though. TBH you could probably just open fold this. Just no need to play the hand. You say you would've been chip leader, but in a flat payout structure things like that go out the window. Survival instincts should kick in when playing a sat...
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Open fold? Woooooooooooooooooooooooooottttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt bru

ShaunyT

cheers guys. At the time it felt really nitty, looking back now, as you all say. fold. Ended up finishing 8th so paid off too :-D

Just to clarify this is not a sat (don't know where you got that from tbh lol). Was tonights ME 10k bounty hunter.

chicknMelt

I'm not sure its as clean cut as everyone is making out...think about what the villain could have here... why would the villain be overbet donk shoving with a strong hand? If the action was different I can definately see the value in folding...

IMO, the villains range is heavily weighted towards weak and draw type hands that they think they can just take down the flop with, which looks like the hero shouldnt have hit much. 

Id be suprised to see something other than 9x, 6x, SD or FD or even just 2 random cards. I'd expect them to show up with a nutty type hand (set, 2 pair, straight) 10-20% of the time.

the absolute worst case is you call and are vs the nuts, 78...and you still have 40% equity. If my assuptions about their range are correct we have about 60% equity.

I'm leaning towards the call with this one. I dont care if I bubble, the money is up top and this is a fantastic opportunity to have a massive stack on the bubble

one other quick point, with blinds this big, and especially with average stacks <40bb you should definately be min raising preflop IMO.

yoyo

chickenmelt analyised it way better than i ever could but here's my foggy old-school tuppence-worth;

yeah no way am i snap folding the NFD with overs.

this is prob a leak of mine but i just don't don't like to give up big hands/draws so i'm pretty sure i'd need a helluv@ read/significant history to let this one go.

i hate the way the opponent has played his hand & oftentimes i'm just gonna spite call with such a strong draw to see what he has.

imo, we need a little bit of gamble from time to time & this is a decent spot for me

hhyftrftdr

haha, I'm not sure why I thought it was a sat....what a dunce. It still remains a fold in a sat situation

I'm with Julian and melt. It's rarely gonna be a set or flopped straight when he donk over shoves. A bare 9 or a worse FD are much more likely, maybe something like 1010 or 88 from time to time as well. Just too much equity here, and although its obvs much better to shove or draws instead of calling off, like Yoyo says sometimes we have to take a breath, hit the call button and go for it. All the big money is up top....

BigBluster

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

chickenmelt analyised it way better than i ever could but here's my foggy old-school tuppence-worth; yeah no way am i snap folding the NFD with overs. this is prob a leak of mine but i just don't don't like to give up big hands/draws so i'm pretty sure i'd need a helluv@ read/significant history to let this one go. i hate the way the opponent has played his hand & oftentimes i'm just gonna spite call with such a strong draw to see what he has. imo, we need a little bit of gamble from time to time & this is a decent spot for me
Posted by yoyo

Julian,

Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes....

Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage.

I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to  Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Julian, Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes.... Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage. I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable.
Posted by BigBluster

So you think that villain would be playing 2 pair, straight or a set this way on the bubble on this board?  I'm counting the 2 overcards as live, so we have 15 outs and even if villain has A9 we still have 12 outs.

We want to go for the win, not min cash!

yoyo

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to  Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Julian, Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes.... Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage. I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable.
Posted by BigBluster

you may well be right sir & i'd be the first to acknowledge that some lines I take are far from optimal!

but, as already said I'm hoping our over cards are live & on a really good day we might already be ahead (optimism is a wonderful thing)

Wacko90

Good hand, if we take away the bubble factor then what is our move then?

Im folding this but purely because with 45bbs I would feel like I have a big enough stack and enough time to grind my way up and not risk at all on essentially a draw. We are still V deep for this stage of a tourney, we have a big stack who is playing like a maniac, although this is standard, albeit overly aggro and reckless bubble play this sort of play is indicative of someone who is very exploitable post bubble and I would be folding this and looking to grind his stack down as the tourney goes on.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to  Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Julian, Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes.... Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage. I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable.
Posted by BigBluster

What are the maths for folding AA to an all in on the first hand of a tournament?

Can see Wacko90's point, and if I was as good a tournament player as him then maybe I'd also pass. But I don't think I can find a fold. Far too juicy a flop, and we can even sometimes be ahead with A high. 

Suppose I just love a good gamble.

ShaunyT

Wow. I thought my mind was made up and it was a definite fold. Now I'm not too sure.

Can I just say I really appreciate all the comments and insight into what you think and how people have analyzed it.

To be honest the fact that I've folded means I'm obviously more inclined to agree with Wacko90's point about 45bb stack/better spots later on. However I kind of agree with every single comment lol. I supposed it depends on how much gamble you have in you. I didn't mention the bubble to highlight the money aspect, it was to highlight how this affects peoples play. Like a few have said was he really that strong if he shoved like that?? My thoughts are perhaps he was just playing the bubble factor and our A high might have even been the best hand, or has he called my raise with a pp 55-JJ and either hit a set or has the overpair and is protecting against the flush. Who knows. Unless he comments in this thread haha.

Once again, thanks for the feedback. I do keep wondering if I had called and won the hand a 60k stack would have been mighty nice

hhyftrftdr

There is something very nice about being super stacked towards the end of a BH. All the big head prizes are up for grabs now. We can afford to take flips and potentially bust quite a few people en route to a deep finish/FT/victory. Thats one of the reasons I'd call off here. That, and I'm a total fish!

cenachav

For me it depends on how much the min cash means to you.  The toruny will pay £30-£40 for the next 30 or so places so fold if that means a lot to your stack.  If not call in a nano second and go for the big stack and the FT where all the money is.

If I would be in that spot then I'm calling but I can understand the fold.  Oppo also knows it is on the bubble and when I call I expect to be ahead already a good amount of the time.  The question is why is he shoving.  If he had a value hand surely the best way to play it would be putting out a small bet or letting you lead out as you were the aggressor pre

ShaunyT

The more i think about it, the more i think it was an outright bluff. the money is obviously nice, i ended up winning £180 overall (cheeky brag) but my goal is to take down a main event. Ive cashed a few times and had an 8th and a 3rd place finish. which isnt bad going considering i dont play them that much. With that in mind i thought if i folded here i would find a better spot later. on reflection if i want to take down a main event i guess i have to make calls in these situations. 

Batkin88

Snap it off you don't play to min cash

1267

Im with Melt and YOYO on this one, almost definately calling.

People who are saying fold, then maybe they should be just folding pre ?

What are you hoping for ?   a AQQ flop ?

77Chris91

I'm pretty much snap calling here.

MattBates

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to  Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Julian, Who am I or anyone else here to question your judgement? But here goes.... Of course you need a little gamble in you, but calling a 45BB shove when you're 68% to miss (no guarantee that overcards are any good) just isn't right mathematically. You're under no stack pressure and can surely find a better spot than getting 45BBs in as a 2:1 dog with no fold equity. You just don't need to take the odds-against gamble at this stage. I hate to say this to someone with your history of success, but in this case you're mistaken. The mathematics is unarguable.
Posted by BigBluster

Maths is unarguable?

In this spot IMO it is likely opponent has an overpair or a draw and flush draw is the most likely. If our opponent has say tens we are a fav to win! If they have a flush draw then we crush them. We are behind to a flopped straight/sets/2pr but we have to question would they play a one of these hands like that?

THEROCK573

id have a hard time laying this down if im honest.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Maths is unarguable? In this spot IMO it is likely opponent has an overpair or a draw and flush draw is the most likely. If our opponent has say tens we are a fav to win! If they have a flush draw then we crush them. We are behind to a flopped straight/sets/2pr but we have to question would they play a one of these hands like that?
Posted by MattBates

BigBluster said he'd fold AA pre flop on Sky to a single all in....so I think we can take his maths with a bag of salt

Wacko90

The only decent arguement for folding is the fact that we are deep stacked for this stage of the tourney and could possibly hit top 10 by grinding rather than flipping. Its really a player dependant spot, neither move is wrong. 

If I had some reads on the oppo then that would be vital in the decsion really. Readless his range his too wide, with reads we could possibly narrow his range and make a profitable call.

CraigSG1

I think the defining factor to fold is the amount we have put in. 3BBs. If I had bet and then got shoved I would call but I probably tank and mumble and rant and rave and then fold!

GaryQQQ

Snap call, can't believe some people are advocating a fold.

To do well in MTTs requires a killer instinct, you need to have the nerve to take spots like this. Shrinking voilets who choose to shy away here will make plenty of min-cashes, but they will hardly ever win.

The guys with the bottle to play for first place will do far better in the long run.

The bubble is irrelevant, if a min-cash is important to you you're under-rolled, which in turn is causing you to play sub-optimally.

BigBluster

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : BigBluster said he'd fold AA pre flop on Sky to a single all in....so I think we can take his maths with a bag of salt
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Do you actually have any opinions of your own or do you just comment on mine? If you have any independent thoughts outside the usual ABC or 2+2 then please volunteer them.

BB.

GCDF

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

Snap call, can't believe some people are advocating a fold. To do well in MTTs requires a killer instinct, you need to have the nerve to take spots like this. Shrinking voilets who choose to shy away here will make plenty of min-cashes, but they will hardly ever win. The guys with the bottle to play for first place will do far better in the long run. The bubble is irrelevant, if a min-cash is important to you you're under-rolled, which in turn is causing you to play sub-optimally.
Posted by GaryQQQ

+1