Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??

Lambert180

I think people are being blinded by this 'we're not allowed to fear the bubble' mentality. I completely agree with the latter part of Gary's post that if mincashing is important, you're underrolled and not playing optimally, however, I don't think this is the consideration here, it's certainly not mine.

I'm folding this on the stone bubble, but I'm folding it 20 away from the stone bubble too, or 40 away from the stone bubble. I'm not folding because I wanna mincash, I'm folding because I don't think calling is our best option when you look at all factors.

All the time, people say 'do X cos we shouldnt be scared of the bubble' but not being scared of the bubble is not an excuse to make bad decisions. I think it's silly to say you have to have the nerve to take spots like this to win MTTs, it just isn't true, basically saying you have to pure gamble. Ofc it's better on this flop if we can shove over a donkbet and have FE or something but here we are just calling all in or not so have to look at just our equity in the pot. Pot odds aren't great cos it's a MASSIVE overshove into a tiny pot, and our hand equity is never gonna be that great. PokerStove has been taken down now but I'd be amazed if we're ever much better than maybe 55/45 against his range.

If you genuinely feel like your game is weak and the best opportunity you have will be to take a virtual flip for a huge stack then go for it, but I know for a fact if I'm sitting with 45xBB then I have pretty big edge over most players I'll ever come across in an MTT on here. Just seems madness to give up our edge when we can crush without the big gamble. I've won many an MTT and they don't have to involve just punting off a massive stack like this.

45xBB on Sky with no antes is huuuuuuuuuuuuuge.

In general, we can shove on people when we're often gonna be facing a flip and it's good cos we have FE. If we're calling it off knowing we're flipping (which  imo we will be) and we're deepstacked then it's really bad. Good MTT players have a pretty huge edge against the average player 45xBB deep in a Sky MTT, why would we let our opponent completely negate our edge and force us to just flip?

F_Ivanovic

^ pro poker tools as an alternative to pokerstove. 

board: 5c6s9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
AcQc	46.77%	25,713	438
TT, JJ, 9K, 9A, 9Q, 8cTc, KcJc, 66, 56	53.23%	29,289	438

OK so this was a quick guestimate of a range I put in. I only included one set because it's unlikely villain does this with a set. Included a few 9x hands since it's something I see often when someone makes a play like this as well as JJ/TT that didn't 3b pre. Also included a couple of flush draws (with JcTc aswell our equity goes up slightly by 0.6%) I think 56 is a hand that makes this play quite often too - included all combos even tho he might not play all off suit pre but this is negated by me including quite a few 9x combos.

So yeah as we can see calling here is going to be a virtual flip. We'd need reads that villain is capable of shoving complete garbage + any FD for us to be looking at having better than 50% equity. I think in general I would agree with Lambo's post. It's a myth that you NEED to take spots like this to win an MTT because you don't. I've won/FT quite a few MTT's where I've barely taken a big gamble up to then just because I was never in a position to need to do so. 

I don't think calling is necessairly bad though. If we're playing quite a few tables and can't fully focus on this one table then I'd be quite happy to call here. Almost 50% equity at least and if we win we have a massive chance of going far. If I'm only playing 2/3 tables tho and can pretty much fully focus on this tournament (and believe us to have a pretty decent edge on the table) then I'm quite happy to fold because I'm more confident I'll realise my skill edge. 

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

^ pro poker tools as an alternative to pokerstove.  board: 5c6s9c Hand Equity Wins Ties AcQc 46.77% 25,713 438 TT, JJ, 9K, 9A, 9Q, 8cTc, KcJc, 66, 56 53.23% 29,289 438 OK so this was a quick guestimate of a range I put in. I only included one set because it's unlikely villain does this with a set. Included a few 9x hands since it's something I see often when someone makes a play like this as well as JJ/TT that didn't 3b pre. Also included a couple of flush draws (with JcTc aswell our equity goes up slightly by 0.6%) I think 56 is a hand that makes this play quite often too - included all combos even tho he might not play all off suit pre but this is negated by me including quite a few 9x combos. So yeah as we can see calling here is going to be a virtual flip. We'd need reads that villain is capable of shoving complete garbage + any FD for us to be looking at having better than 50% equity. I think in general I would agree with Lambo's post.  ...

If think the shoving range has a lot more draws and random cards? I have called in very similar spots to this before and been shown 2 completely random cards. Like KQo on a board like this wouldn't surprise me at all.

If u include flush draws(which we crush), straight draws, random spasz shoves it should increase out equity I around the 60%+ mark. I would go as far to say we are crushing, or at least ahead to other draws etc at least 1/4 of the time. Probably 9x and other 1 pair hands 50% and the rest in the last 25%

Enut

My Tuppence worth....

I fold, based on the fact that I probably need to hit to win and I will miss more often than I hit. I'm not a fan of calling off my tournament life on a draw, albeit a good one, especially on the bubble. You can quite comfortably fold and make a min cash which is far far better than bubbling after, I suspect 3 hours+ of play. There should be plenty more opportunities in the tourney to 'get it in' in a far, far better position.

If the bubble has burst then, depending on how you feel, go for it, you've already banked a profit and can now go for the win.

Easy for Yoyo to say he would call, he's been there and done it and of course a 32% chance of hitting for us mere mortals is about a 95% cert for him!

unknown_username

This is a fantastic hand to look at with all the dynamics. But in the 15 seconds you get to decide. I imagine if you took a poll. 

Most would call and I am included. Granted the opinion would change if min cashing is a big thing for you, but like someone mentioned earlier it depends on how you 'Play to win'. Fold for a better spot or play your draws and double to 90 + bb. 

I applaude the fold as in this particular spot I would of called. But then again we shall never know what happend as there was two cards to come. So regardless of math and opinion I believe that there is no right decision in this spot.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Do you actually have any opinions of your own or do you just comment on mine? If you have any independent thoughts outside the usual ABC or 2+2 then please volunteer them. BB.
Posted by BigBluster

Untwist your knickers yeah

----------------------------------------

Call, call and call again. I think our equity, in general on Sky, is gonna be so much. I've seen chip leaders to do with total rags, worse flush draws etc etc. Obviously If we had solid reads that villain only does this with sets or whatever, then we could pass. But this is readless, and I just can't imagine random sets/2 pairs donk over jamming, even on Sky.....they would just check minraise innit

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? :

If think the shoving range has a lot more draws and random cards? I have called in very similar spots to this before and been shown 2 completely random cards. Like KQo on a board like this wouldn't surprise me at all. If u include flush draws(which we crush), straight draws, random spasz shoves it should increase out equity I around the 60%+ mark. I would go as far to say we are crushing, or at least ahead to other draws etc at least 1/4 of the time. Probably 9x and other 1 pair hands 50% and the rest in the last 25%
Posted by chicknMelt

Really? I mean I would agree completely if the shove was like 1.5x pot or something similar. But it's like 6/7x pot and I'd be pretty astonished to see him have KQ here. 

NColley

Wouldn't ever fold this hand vs a random in a BH.

chicknMelt

board: 56c9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
Tc8c, Jc8c, Qc8c, Kc8c, TcJc, TcKc, 5c7c, 56, 67, 68, 97, 98, 9t, 9j, 9q, 9k, 9A, 77,88,TT, A5, A6	38.81%	233,033	3,429
AcQc	61.19%	368,428	3,429

I know this means range means the villain is calling pretty wide preflop... I dont think that would be uncommon for a bigstack on sky though. OP - did you have any reads on what the villain was playing like preflop? I also didnt include any random spasz shoves, so that should make up for the times when they do it with 2pair +

Ivanovic - tbf, the KQo donk bet overs hove I called referring to was for around 3x pot... so I could be overvaluing the chances of random cards. I do think though that the villain will be shoving a wider range though still... like if they are shoving KcJc, would they not also shove KcTc? or are you thinking that they wont flat KcTc preflop?

Lambert - I'd have to be crushing pretty hard to consider passing a spot like this, even for 45bb on the bubble in a 3bb pot or whatever it was.

i know its making alot of assumptions, but shauny folded, and finished 8th if we say that was his average cash when he folded I dont think that would be too far wrong. If he called, he would only have to finish 2 places higher on average on the occasions he won this hand to show a long term profit... with a 90bb stack i'd fancy his chances.

rough prizes including bounties

1st: £1900

2nd: £1000

3rd: £650

4th: £500

5th: £400

6th: £320

7th: £240

8th: £180

When you call: (0 x 38.81%) + (£320 * 61.19%) = £195

When you fold: £180

Slipwater

All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call.

Almost always.

MattBates

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call. Almost always.
Posted by Slipwater

I agree with that but we need to evaluate whether decisions we make in the heat of the moment are good long term ones.

F_Ivanovic

That range just seems way too wide for me. Either villain has been incredibly lucky the entire tournament or they should have gone broke by now if they're been donk shoving every flop for over 7x pot with 2nd pair and a gutshot (77/88/67) Sure, they could occasionally make a bad play like this but they won't be doing so every time with every combo of these hands. A5 and A6 are also a bit absurd to include.

 I mean it basically means they're just open shoving 1/3 of the time when they see a flop almost. Including stuff like KcTc is fine. I only excluded it just because he might not always donk shove his flush draws. He could be completely weighted towards FD's though and maybe 56 in which case our equity is still v high. But if it's more 'balanced' and includes stuff like 9x hands then our equity drops quite a bit. 

As I said though I don't think a call can be wrong. We're almost flipping at worst vs his range and could be in v good shape vs his range if it's weighted towards flush draws. If we had say just the K high FD though then folding IMO becomes clearly best. 

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

All this chat about equity and percentages and narrowing it down to point-whatever of a decimal is fine and dandy, and maybe this is a fold if you think about it for long enough. But in the moment - in that small window you have online to make a decision - it's a call. Almost always.
Posted by Slipwater

so you make your call in your 15 seconds...fine.

now dont you wonder if its the right move?

do you not want to know what to do next time?

The game gets harder to beat all the time, and giving up 1 or 2% in equity is alot more significant than it used to be! Also, getting into the finer details helps you to make correct decisions in similar situations too.

cowhead

Interesting spot. 

Personally I fold in this spot, for reasons Jacko made. 

I think a few people who said they call have missed a key factor when they said you are going to min cash if you don't call.

You have a stack that's equivalent to a starting stack in level 3 or 4. Often, if you've got a table that's pretty soft I tend not to take flips where I'm fairly deep and feel I have an edge. If the tourneys stacked with better players then I'd be inclined to gamble here but it's more often a fold for me.

Tough spot, sigh fold and just accept it for what it is: a bigger stack abusing you on the bubble.

Slipwater

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : so you make your call in your 15 seconds...fine. now dont you wonder if its the right move? do you not want to know what to do next time? The game gets harder to beat all the time, and giving up 1 or 2% in equity is alot more significant than it used to be! Also, getting into the finer details helps you to make correct decisions in similar situations too.
Posted by chicknMelt

I know that, Melt. I just think that this hand on this board is a call almost every time you play it. I mean, what kind of flop are you expecting to hit with your AQ suited? A lot of times you're ahead of the guy shoving, and the times when you're behind (and it won't be by much) you have approximately 83 outs.

chicknMelt

@slipwater...just read the bold italic bit at the bottom... is that more of a comfortable level of analysis for you?? :P

That range just seems way too wide for me. Either villain has been incredibly lucky the entire tournament or they should have gone broke by now if they're been donk shoving every flop for over 7x pot with 2nd pair and a gutshot (77/88/67) Sure, they could occasionally make a bad play like this but they won't be doing so every time with every combo of these hands. A5 and A6 are also a bit absurd to include. 

well, yes, A5 and A6 are a bit absurd... but isnt a donk shove for 7x pot with any hand completely absurd?? I also agree they probably arent doing this every time with all the hands I have in the range...but, do you think they are doing it with the same hands every time, or do you think for example, one time they donk shove A9, the next the check shove, another time they donk, another time they check call. I suspect there is at least an element of randomness like this. Also, because its the bubble, their range could be alot wider than normal. I guess what I'm getting at, is that it may not have been the specific hand that made him shove, but the situation combined with a compatible hand.. Removing any of the 1 pair hands wont make much difference to our equity anyway since our equity was roughly the same as it would be vs any 1 pair hand...

Before:

board: 56c9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
Tc8c, Jc8c, Qc8c, Kc8c, TcJc, TcKc, 5c7c, 56, 67, 68, 97, 98, 9t, 9j, 9q, 9k, 9A, 77,88,TT, A5, A6	38.81%	233,033	3,429
AcQc	61.19%	368,428	3,429

after:

board: 56c9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
Tc8c, Jc8c, Qc8c, Kc8c, TcJc, TcKc, 5c7c, 56, 97, 98, 9t, 9j, 9q, 9k, 9A, TT	38.72%	150,398	2,013
AcQc	61.28%	238,639	2,013

 He could be completely weighted towards FD's though and maybe 56 in which case our equity is still v high. But if it's more 'balanced' and includes stuff like 9x hands then our equity drops quite a bit.  As I said though I don't think a call can be wrong. We're almost flipping at worst vs his range and could be in v good shape vs his range if it's weighted towards flush draws. If we had say just the K high FD though then folding IMO becomes clearly best. 

Agree. its not like we are either way ahead or way behind. worst case is that we are all completely wrong and they are doing it with a made straight/set... so we are either way ahead, flipping or slightly behind, so a call can never be a terrible mistake

board: 56c9c

Hand	Equity	Wins	Ties
78, 55, 66, 99	56.21%	55,392	504
AcQc	43.79%	43,104	504

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : I know that, Melt. I just think that this hand on this board is a call almost every time you play it. I mean, what kind of flop are you expecting to hit with your AQ suited? A lot of times you're ahead of the guy shoving, and the times when you're behind (and it won't be by much) you have approximately 83 outs.
Posted by Slipwater

yeah ok, I agree, especially now after I have done all this analysis...but I wasnt too sure at the time what the correct move wouild be. 45bb into a 3bb pot or wahever is pretty extreme.

in game I would have called, but I would have known it was pretty close and wouldnt know for sure it was correct until after analysis

cowhead

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : yeah ok, I agree, especially now after I have done all this analysis...but I wasnt too sure at the time what the correct move wouild be. 45bb into a 3bb pot or wahever is pretty extreme. in game I would have called, but I would have known it was pretty close and wouldnt know for sure it was correct until after analysis
Posted by chicknMelt

Hi Melt, when working out your equity do you factor in the edge you have over the table? Odds wise it's close but if you're by far the best player at the table then would you factor this before flipping?

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Hi Melt, when working out your equity do you factor in the edge you have over the table? Odds wise it's close but if you're by far the best player at the table then would you factor this before flipping?
Posted by cowhead

Yes, always. not only that, but ICM

I think you have to be careful not to over estimate your edge, with the equity you give away though.

I'd probably always pass up a 50/50 spot unless i needed to gamble and ICM wasnt a consideration

with ICM a factor, and at a decent table as a rule of thumb id be looking for 55%+ equity, obv each situation is different.

With 60%+ equity, I'd be calling almost all the time. the table would have to be super soft. I dont think the OP said they were printing money at the table, so i'd be calling here.

 

GaryQQQ

For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand). 

Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call.

http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg

cowhead

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : Yes, always. not only that, but ICM I think you have to be careful not to over estimate your edge, with the equity you give away though. I'd probably always pass up a 50/50 spot unless i needed to gamble and ICM wasnt a consideration with ICM a factor, and at a decent table as a rule of thumb id be looking for 55%+ equity, obv each situation is different. With 60%+ equity, I'd be calling almost all the time. the table would have to be super soft. I dont think the OP said they were printing money at the table, so i'd be calling here.  
Posted by chicknMelt

So what youre saying is that its a fold then?

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty?? : So what youre saying is that its a fold then?
Posted by cowhead

No, a call... I believe we have more than 60% equity so I'm basically never folding. It would take a table full of truely awful players to make think about folding

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand).  Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call. http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg
Posted by GaryQQQ

Excellent. I didn't know pokersnowie let you construct your own scenarios yet.

That would tie in almost exactly with having 60% equity...

If u start with 45bb

(40% x 0bb) + (60% x 90bb) = 54bb

I don't think we can fold this.  The only question is whether 9bb is enough to counter the effect of ICM, which I expect it does.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

For what it's worth I've just reconstructed this hand in Poker Snowie as best I can (had to divide stacks and blinds by ten, also Snowie assumes it's a cash hand not a tournament hand).  Snowie's evaluation is to call 100% of the time expecting an average profit of 9.12 big blinds (4560 chips) per call. http://imageshack.com/a/img28/7403/8xa0.jpg
Posted by GaryQQQ

Couple of issues with that though....

1) Pokersnowie is all about learning how to play as close to GTO as possible. I won't start the debate about whether we wanna play GTO or exploitative poker but I think whether it's a call or not based on GTO here is pretty much irrelevant cos we can bet villian probably aint playing anywhere even vaguely close to GTO

2) The fact it's cash and not a tournament is the whole difference for me. I said in one of my earlier posts that we might be as much as 55/45 v his range, and if that's the case in cash, then we 100% should be snapping it off everytime if we're rolled cos every hand is a fresh start, it's the most +EV option so that's what we do. It's the fact it's a tournament that changes it... if we're a strong player then we have a big edge over your average Sky MTT field and with 45xBB we have plenty of room to use that edge. 

I don't know about the rest of the table obviously, but just take the one player in this hand... I'm not being funny but clearly a player who makes this move is really bad no matter what 2 cards he has. Short of bad beats/outdraws etc, I'd be pretty shocked if I couldn't outplay/find a better spot to get my chips all in V this guy when we're so deep than being marginally better than a flip.

You don't think you'd take the chips of a guy that plays this bad much more than 50% of the time, this deep, if you allow yourself to play on your terms?

F_Ivanovic

 but isnt a donk shove for 7x pot with any hand completely absurd??

Yes, it's definitely strange and probably not the most optimal play but then again we are on the bubble and it's possible that villain could have a balanced shoving range here that's going to be hard for us to exploit. He puts maximum pressure on our range knowing that the best hand we can have is an overpair. 

DoubleAAA

Here's my tuppence worth, as stated before I think we have to call here.  Here are a couple of ranges I have assigned:

Over pair, 2 pairs, realistic flush draws, 1 pair+gutshot etc
TT,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o makes us 54.7%

if we include sets:
TT-99,66-55,A9s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 45.8%

if we inc the flopped straight:
TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o we're 44.4%

Now the main question to ask is this....

Would villain play a flopped straight or a set like this?
I would say no and at the very most I reckon we would see villain turn over a set or a straight 5% of the time.

The 15 seconds we get it's a call and like melt said, it's always good to analyse after to know whether the call we made was a good one or not.

I think with almost 55% (I think this is higher as I do not think villain will hardly ever show up with 2 pairs here) we have to call and if villain played his flopped straight or set this way and gets calls then fair play to him.  If he has hardly anything and he gets us to fold monster draws like this, then I think he can profitably exploit many of you by flatting your pre flop raises and jamming most scary boards as clearly you cannot call.
-------------------------------------------
Edit:
Thought I would include this scenario.  Imagine we had AA and he did this would you call?

AA  = 51.6%
Everything above including flopped straights and sets.
TT-99,66-55,A9s,87s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,Kc8c,9c8c,Kc7c,Kc6c,6c5c,4c3c,A9o

So if you would call with AA then you have to call with the AQ hand. fwiw, I would fold any overpair here, but call this AQcc all day long.

chicknMelt

@lambert

You gotta love pokersnowie. Such a good idea. It's definitely going to make NLH harder to beat though

I wouldn't say that pokersnowie is completely irrelevant, I think it does tell us what we should expect our equity to be. But then I could just be saying that because it happened to be close to my estimated equity

You say that our equity could be as much as 55%. I reckon it's 60+ ...if I thought my equity was capped at 55% I'd probable be advocating the fold too, especially if we had a decent edge. For arguments sake, if the equity was 60%+ would you be calling?

I agree with your comments about being able to find better spots against a player that does this sort of thing regularly. 2 things I would say though, that you possibly aren't considering: it's the stone bubble, this could be the only time the villain makes a spasz move trying to take down a pot with a rediculous bet that you "can't call"; the hero hasn't said anything about having a big edge on the table/field.

chicknMelt

In Response to Re: Bubble of the 10k bounty hunter. Too nitty??:

Yes, it's definitely strange and probably not the most optimal play but then again we are on the bubble and it's possible that villain could have a balanced shoving range here that's going to be hard for us to exploit. He puts maximum pressure on our range knowing that the best hand we can have is an overpair. 
Posted by F_Ivanovic

IMO, if the villain has a balanced shoving range, it's completely by accident. 

to me it just looks like a bet designed to push you off a hand...

Enut

Really interesting posts and opinions. I personally side with Lambert's last post here (as said before) in my opinion we are far too deep to risk our tourney on what is, at best, a flip. Even if we are as much as 60% we are still calling a massive all in with a only draw.

Fold and we live to take advantage of villian's play throughout the rest of the tourney. Maybe next time he tries this move we can snap him off with a set or two pair ourselves!

MattBates

The biggest issue here is why didn't OP call so we knew what opponent was shoving with! Would help greatly with range construction!