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PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancefffSmall blind 75.0075.009774.00PiAnOpLaYaBig blind 150.00225.008266.00 Your hole cardsKK xxxRaise 300.00525.004670.00qqqAll-in 625.001150.000.00yyyFold fffFold PiAnOpLaYaCall 475.001625.007791.00xxxCall 325.001950.004345.00Flop 63J PiAnOpLaYaCheck xxxCheck Turn 8 PiAnOpLaYaBet 975.002925.006816.00xxxCall 975.003900.003370.00River J PiAnOpLaYaBet 1050.004950.005766.00xxxAll-in 3370.008320.000.00
Just a bit of a line check really.
xxx is a very good reg, I only called pre flop as a 4bet looks like only 2 hands (AA + KK) and i wanted to get value down the streets.
Looks like a safe flop which is checked. Go for a value bet on the turn was surprised when it was called.
Should i have check folded the river or is bet folding a good line hoping to get value from smaller PP. My thought was if xxx had the J they would have bet the flop?
Once they jam can i beat anything on the river?
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Comments
Probably something like AQ/A10s, given they also raised 2bb out of a 15bb(ish) stack early on. They would certainly check behind the flop with those hands, as it makes no sense to bluff you if they can't beat the guy that's all in for the pot anyway.
They would also likely just flat the turn with AQ/A10s.
And of course, those hands then shove the river. I'd say there is no chance they are bluffing. The Jack would be a good card to bluff at, because it's highly unlikely that you have one, given that you checked the flop, but I don't see why they would ever float the turn just to try and bluff whatever hits the river.
There's a slim chance they had 66 or 88 all along.
I'd be tempted to check/fold the river too. May be a little weak, but I can't see a lot of worse hands calling. Most hands that called the turn have overtaken you, or were ahead anyway, and the times he has a smaller PP, he will likely check behind.
As played c/f river imo. Villain still has all the J's in their range as they prolly check back KJ/QJ/J10 on the flop.
Given the way the hand has played there's like zero hands you can get value from when you bet the river. (Assuming 10's etc fold as your never really bluffing in this spot.)
River - c/f />>>>> c/c >>>>> b/f
Preflop was fine, you want more value and a reraise does look strong and gives UTG a chance to come over to isolate etc.
That said I doubt it is bluffing, and like you say the chances of you being good here are far lower odds I think than being good, and would cost you long-term. As played bet/fold, but as others have said I may C/C the river. While I think a jack is in his range it would be at the bottom of his range maybe given position. For me it's more likely he has a back door flush here.