This is not a diary, its a racecard!

ShaunyT

OK, so here is my thinking in starting this thread. I feel like the unluckiest player EVER! Not in general, in one specific area. ALL IN PRE FLOP RACES. Whether I have the pocket pair, or the over cards it doesn't matter, I lose!

Now I know all about selective memory so I want to have a record to see if really am as unlucky as I feel. And I know, or I hope, most of the stuff I post will be standard spots. I just would love to see how much I do actually lose flips.

I will update this thread with the hands and relevant information (i.e. the backdrop to the all in pre)

I am specifically concerned about MTT's cos as the saying goes "you need to win your flips!" That might be why I haven't won an MTT since the 17th of Neverembury.


First few for you

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
mushkarata	Small blind		200.00	200.00	33293.75
craigcu12	Big blind		400.00	600.00	9120.00
	Your hole cards	9 9
Enut	Fold
ShaunyT	Raise		800.00	1400.00	11337.50
fire23	Call		800.00	2200.00	6115.00
bbMike	Fold
mushkarata	Call		600.00	2800.00	32693.75
craigcu12	All-in		9120.00	11920.00	0.00
ShaunyT	All-in		11337.50	23257.50	0.00
fire23	Fold
mushkarata	Fold
ShaunyT	Unmatched bet		2617.50	20640.00	2617.50
craigcu12	Show	K 10
ShaunyT	Show	9 9
Flop
		7 Q 10
Turn
		J
River
		2
craigcu12	Win	Pair of 10s	20640.00		20640.00

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
mushkarata	Small blind		200.00	200.00	31493.75
craigcu12	Big blind		400.00	600.00	18142.50
	Your hole cards	7 7
ShaunyT	All-in		7035.00	7635.00	0.00
fire23	Fold
bbMike	All-in		12955.00	20590.00	0.00
mushkarata	Fold
craigcu12	Fold
bbMike	Unmatched bet		5920.00	14670.00	5920.00
ShaunyT	Show	7 7
bbMike	Show	Q A
Flop
		10 7 K
Turn
		J
River
		9
bbMike	Win	Straight to the Ace	14670.00		20590.00

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
chubby48uk	Small blind		100.00	100.00	3908.75
mickeys	Big blind		200.00	300.00	6136.25
	Your hole cards	A 10
ShaunyT	All-in		2225.00	2525.00	0.00
cagsy1980	Fold
scott1904	All-in		1072.50	3597.50	0.00
chubby48uk	Fold
mickeys	Fold
ShaunyT	Unmatched bet		1152.50	2445.00	1152.50
ShaunyT	Show	A 10
scott1904	Show	5 5
Flop
		5 8 3
Turn
		9
River
		6
scott1904	Win	Three 5s	2445.00		2445.00

So the first hand maybe I should have folded or shoved? Others standard.

Villains 3. ShaunyT 0.

bbMike

How did you get from 2600 after hand 1 to 7000 in hand 2? I can't remember, maybe you won a flip

Don't go posting a biased report card. But I hope you writing it down allays your fears.

PS I was loving hand 2, after you declared that you never win flips I knew it was free chips ahoy! Btw, I won that tournament, you gotta win your flips!

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

How did you get from 2600 after hand 1 to 7000 in hand 2? I can't remember, maybe you won a flip Don't go posting a biased report card. But I hope you writing it down allays your fears. PS I was loving hand 2, after you declared that you never win flips I knew it was free chips ahoy! Btw, I won that tournament, you gotta win your flips!
Posted by bbMike

I have no idea..... Memory bias lol

Wp on taking the dtd down. 

I'll be trying my best to be unbiased. This is not a rant thread it's an attempt to hopefully either resign myself to the fact I run -ev in flip situations or identify a playing pattern that I can change. I play very low volume MTT's so hopefully I can keep up to date and get every aipf flip in this thread. I'll discount those first 3 cos I'm sure I must have won a few flips. I'll post each and every one from now on. 

I probably won't be playing till dtd next Monday now anyway.

GaryQQQ

Spoiler alert.

You'll win 50% of the races in the long run.

Trouble is you'll have to run this diary for many thousands of hands before you start to smooth out the variance and get close to the long run. For example the first one hundred mean absolutely nothing. If you're still posting after a thousand I'll take a look and see how it's going so far.
 
Good luck.

shakinaces

This isn't true Gary. 

Some people receive unfair bias from 'The RNG', a Bond-style villain that it is on a mission to stop selected low-stakes poker players from being long term winners.

Furthermore, one of The RNG's henchmen is responsible for brainwashing Sky into banning tracking software, in order to make it near impossible for anyone to record the number of played hands necessary to prove the case and defeat this dastardly plan.

It's a conspiracy I tell thee!

In other news, shouldn't this be in the BBV diary section?

Talon

  I can see where you are coming from. We all have times when we think things are against us and we are not getting our share of luck. But i cant see how this thread can possibly help you.

 This kind of empirical analysis is only meaningful with a significant sample size. That would be in the tens of thousands. Any conclusions before that amount of hands has too much variance built in.

 What would help you more is looking at each situation and analysing the scenario. Asking yourself important questions.

Do i really want to be in a flip at this point?

How likely am i to be called?

Do i have time to wait for a better spot?

Am i better served getting to a flop and shoving then?

  Asking questions like these about each hand will serve you so much better than worrying about whether or not you are lucky at flips.

ShaunyT

Thanks for the responses Gary n talon. 

Talon- yeah that's the kind of thing I would like to get from this log. 

Shakinaces- I take it from your sarcastic response you are lumping me in with the bbv nutcases. If you had taken the time to read the posts you would have seen this is not a rant thread and I am not complaining. Merely logging flip situations. So take your poor efforts at trolling elsewhere

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

Thanks for the responses Gary n talon.  Talon- yeah that's the kind of thing I would like to get from this log.  Shakinaces- I take it from your sarcastic response you are lumping me in with the bbv nutcases. If you had taken the time to read the posts you would have seen this is not a rant thread and I am not complaining. Merely logging flip situations. So take your poor efforts at trolling elsewhere
Posted by ShaunyT

Come on mate, that's a bit unfair.

I can only echo what others have said. Fair enough if you wanna log your flips but it is a bit on the pointless side simply due to the sample size needed. Much better off at looking at key hands before you flip. Cos ideally, you want it to be their tournament on the line when it's a 50/50, not ours.

For example, above you've open shoved 77 for about 18bb. This will never be a winning play long term IMO.
We've also got in 30bb with 99 pre flop.

Also, where possible look to fold out flips at every (sensible) opportunity. If you can 3bet jam J10s over a constant late position opener, they probably ain't calling with 33 for example.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : Come on mate, that's a bit unfair. I can only echo what others have said. Fair enough if you wanna log your flips but it is a bit on the pointless side simply due to the sample size needed. Much better off at looking at key hands before you flip. Cos ideally, you want it to be their tournament on the line when it's a 50/50, not ours. For example, above you've open shoved 77 for about 18bb. This will never be a winning play long term IMO. We've also got in 30bb with 99 pre flop. Also, where possible look to fold out flips at every (sensible) opportunity. If you can 3bet jam J10s over a constant late position opener, they probably ain't calling with 33 for example.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

I think this is wrong, I'm pretty sure if we open shove 18BB with 77 that it's physically impossible for someone to have any calling range that doesn't make our shove +EV. In fact, I think we could have our hand face up, shove, and there's still no range they can call with that'll make us lose money longterm.

It's not the most optimal way to play it imo but 99% sure it's +EV

Also, I agree we do wanna avoid flips where possible, as you say jamming JTs to avoid flips V stuff like 33. But that's an arguement FOR shoving 77 imo because we want to fold out flips, we don't wanna have to raise/call it off and see A8, A9, AT, KJ, K9s, QJs blah blah in a lot of spots

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : I think this is wrong, I'm pretty sure if we open shove 18BB with 77 that it's pysically impossible for someone to have any calling range that doesn't make our shove +EV. In fact, I think we could have our hand face up, shove, and there's still no range they can call with that'll make us lose money longterm. It's not the most optimal way to play it imo but 99% sure it's +EV Also, I agree we do wanna avoid flips where possible, as you say jamming JTs to avoid flips V stuff like 33. But that's an arguement FOR shoving 77 imo because we want to fold out flips, we don't wanna have to raise/call it off and see A8, A9, AT, KJ, K9s, QJs blah blah
Posted by Lambert180

Who says we have to raise call off 77? Not ideal to be min raise folding from 18bb granted, and will be villain dependent of course, but we'd still be left with 16bb which is plenty on Sky if we don't go with it.

In simple terms, if you open jam 77 for 18bb what calls you? 66 and below will fold. Maybe 88 and 99 might pass. Getting called by AQ+ and 1010+, a range that, on the whole, we are in terrible shape against.

I think the hand is too weak and our stack is too much to make this the right move. All my opinion of course.

jordz16

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : I think this is wrong, I'm pretty sure if we open shove 18BB with 77 that it's physically impossible for someone to have any calling range that doesn't make our shove +EV. In fact, I think we could have our hand face up, shove, and there's still no range they can call with that'll make us lose money longterm. It's not the most optimal way to play it imo but 99% sure it's +EV Also, I agree we do wanna avoid flips where possible, as you say jamming JTs to avoid flips V stuff like 33. But that's an arguement FOR shoving 77 imo because we want to fold out flips, we don't wanna have to raise/call it off and see A8, A9, AT, KJ, K9s, QJs blah blah in a lot of spots
Posted by Lambert180

i dont see open shoving 77 being profitable in standard MTT's, because you dont crush any calling hand, you are only ever flipping or crushed, if in the long term people know you are also shoving qq/kk/aa pre with 18bbs then thats the only way i think you can ever fold out enough hands to make it a profitable play

Lambert180

If we get called ONLY by TT+ and AQ+ that's barely 4% of hands, so then they fold 96% of the time which is what makes it +EV, I was just picking up on the 'its never a winning play' line. Even against that range we still got 36% equity anyway, to add to the insane amount of folds we get.

I agree 16BB is tons on sky, personally I'd minraise and then we either play postflop if flatted or have to decide whether we're calling it off or folding depending on who is it that shoves.

Lambert180

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : i dont see open shoving 77 being profitable in standard MTT's, because you dont crush any calling hand, you are only ever flipping or crushed, if in the long term people know you are also shoving qq/kk/aa pre with 18bbs then thats the only way i think you can ever fold out enough hands to make it a profitable play
Posted by jordz16

I thought you'd have known about Nash charts etc. I'm pretty sure even 22 falls into the category of being able to open shove from this sack depth and there's still nothing anyone can do to stop our shove being +EV. That's really not optimal obviously, but it is profitable, the maths says so.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : I think this is wrong, I'm pretty sure if we open shove 18BB with 77 that it's physically impossible for someone to have any calling range that doesn't make our shove +EV. In fact, I think we could have our hand face up, shove, and there's still no range they can call with that'll make us lose money longterm. It's not the most optimal way to play it imo but 99% sure it's +EV Also, I agree we do wanna avoid flips where possible, as you say jamming JTs to avoid flips V stuff like 33. But that's an arguement FOR shoving 77 imo because we want to fold out flips, we don't wanna have to raise/call it off and see A8, A9, AT, KJ, K9s, QJs blah blah in a lot of spots
Posted by Lambert180

This seems backwards.

How many people 3bet jam K9s/A8/QJs for north of 17bb on Sky?

shakinaces

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

Thanks for the responses Gary n talon.  Talon- yeah that's the kind of thing I would like to get from this log.  Shakinaces- I take it from your sarcastic response you are lumping me in with the bbv nutcases. If you had taken the time to read the posts you would have seen this is not a rant thread and I am not complaining. Merely logging flip situations. So take your poor efforts at trolling elsewhere
Posted by ShaunyT

lol fair do...

...although you aren't necessarily helping yourself become disassociated with the BBV crew when your first two posts see you claim you are the unluckiest person in the whole of poker and then admit that you probably did win some flips but only posted the losing ones.

But good luck with your quest all the same and I hope things turn around for you, winning is way more fun 

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

If we get called ONLY by TT+ and AQ+ that's barely 4% of hands, so then they fold 96% of the time which is what makes it +EV, I was just picking up on the 'its never a winning play' line. Even against that range we still got 36% equity anyway, to add to the insane amount of folds we get. I agree 16BB is tons on sky, personally I'd minraise and then we either play postflop if flatted or have to decide whether we're calling it off or folding depending on who is it that shoves.
Posted by Lambert180

You're gonna have to enlighten me Paul as I'm struggling.....Are we jamming 77 with 18bb for value or to pinch the blinds?

I don't think it is a winning play, in my opinion. Are the times we nick the blinds worth the times we get called by JJ and its gg us?

Lambert180

jblsdgjsdjl

It IS a winning play, it's a mathematical fact. Literally a fact. We can argue about what range gets it in when we shove but it makes zero difference because you cannot construct a range that will make our shove -EV. The range you gaave first gives us folds 96% of the time, and 36% equity when called anyway, not too shabby. Tighten the range we lost a bit of equity but gain folds, loosen it, we lose folds but gain more equity and no matter the range, it'll ALWAYS be a +EV shove*

*Again it's not optimal but it is a winning play.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

jblsdgjsdjl It IS a winning play, it's a mathematical fact. Literally a fact. We can argue about what range gets it in when we shove but it makes zero difference because you cannot construct a range that will make our shove -EV. The range you gaave first gives us folds 96% of the time, and 36% equity when called anyway, not too shabby. Tighten the range we lost a bit of equity but gain folds, loosen it, we lose folds but gain more equity and no matter the range, it'll ALWAYS be a +EV shove* *Again it's not optimal but it is a winning play.
Posted by Lambert180

I really hope you implement this winning play in every MTT you participate in

jordz16

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : I thought you'd have known about Nash charts etc. I'm pretty sure even 22 falls into the category of being able to open shove from this sack depth and there's still nothing anyone can do to stop our shove being +EV. That's really not optimal obviously, but it is profitable, the maths says so.
Posted by Lambert180

Im aware of what it is but cant say i have ever used any chart for anything except heads up... i dont know the maths for it id happily admit that, and if you say its mathematically a winning play im sure you are right, i just personally believe if you are open shoving any mid pair from 15-20bbs in standard MTT's you will be a losing MTT player in the long term 

hhyftrftdr

You've obviously got me on semantics Lambert. I don't really care for Nash charts etc.

All I can say to someone who is open shoving 77 for 18bb on Sky....good luck.

Sorry for derail Shauny!

Lambert180

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : Im aware of what it is but cant say i have ever used any chart for anything except heads up... i dont know the maths for it id happily admit that, and if you say its mathematically a winning play im sure you are right, i just personally believe if you are open shoving any mid pair from 15-20bbs in standard MTT's you will be a losing MTT player in the long term 
Posted by jordz16

That's not possible. You might experience bigger swings but you won't become a losing player by making +EV shoves.

Fwiw I have said multiple times that its not optimal imo and its not what I'd do. Although I might just open ship in later position in a BH.

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

You've obviously got me on semantics Lambert. I don't really care for Nash charts etc. All I can say to someone who is open shoving 77 for 18bb on Sky....good luck. Sorry for derail Shauny!
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Haha. Full derail!! 

Only kidding. Appreciate the input. Food for thought already. Cheers guys.

hhyftrftdr

Who'd have thought a single word can cause such a derail?!

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : lol fair do... ...although you aren't necessarily helping yourself become disassociated with the BBV crew when your first two posts see you claim you are the unluckiest person in the whole of poker and then admit that you probably did win some flips but only posted the losing ones. But good luck with your quest all the same and I hope things turn around for you, winning is way more fun 
Posted by shakinaces

I'm not being funny here, but you don't read things properly. When did I say I thought I was the unlukiest player in poker? I said I feel unlucky in flip situations. Nothing else. Then I said I would discount the first 3 I posted because I couldn't find any winning flips in my hh.

Not getting into a discussion about it. Just trying to correct your many mistakes.

hhyftrftdr

TBF Shauny, you said you feel like the unluckiest guy in poker. Tongue in cheek I'm sure, much like Shakin's post is I imagine.

Feels refreshing to be the referee in a thread for once

mrsduck

Can I just say that open shoving 22 is always the correct ITM +EV Nash chart thing to do at any table with any number of blinds, anytime...
GL Shauny on your "log"... ahem, diary

MattBates

So that's 77 covered.....what we doing with 66?

bbMike

Pretty sure open shoving 77 for 18BB with no antes (and not in a BH) is going to be -EV from that position.

Loads of people talk about the mathematical facts without showing any workings.... 

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

Pretty sure open shoving 77 for 18BB with no antes (and not in a BH) is going to be -EV from that position. Loads of people talk about the mathematical facts without showing any workings.... 
Posted by bbMike

Aw Mike no, not again, please

TeddyBloat

As a further derail, 77 is an unexploitable and guarenteed +ev shove heads-up, up to about 65 - 70bb. However dont look at nash charts. Nash caluclates unexploitable shoving RANGES when shove/fold are the only options. for example 54s is a nash shove hu over 20bb, but only as part of the nash range. if you minraise all other hands then shoving 54s would be very exploitable.

heads up, 77 is never exploitable and always +ev under 60bbs it is so strong. And it is chubukov charts that you want to consult to see guarenteed + ev shoving hands for various stacks -  if you so wish.

Also unexploitable does NOT = +ev. The nash shovd range is -ev for the SB over 6bb and at 16bb is a terrible proposition for the sb, to the tune o around 13/100bb if I remember correctly.

Also all these things are usually calculated HU. 6max ranges will be very different. 

Throw those charts away except when hu and under 6bb

GELDY

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : That's not possible. You might experience bigger swings but you won't become a losing player by making +EV shoves. Fwiw I have said multiple times that its not optimal imo and its not what I'd do. Although I might just open ship in later position in a BH.
Posted by Lambert180

oh yes it is!

by leaking value even if +ev you reduce your chances of running deep thus losing ev over the mtt as a whole.

ps nice thread shauny but not for the reasons in the initial post :-)