This is not a diary, its a racecard!

ShaunyT

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : oh yes it is! by leaking value even if +ev you reduce your chances of running deep thus losing ev over the mtt as a whole. ps nice thread shauny but not for the reasons in the initial post :-)
Posted by GELDY

cheers GELDY.

I think from now on i'm just gonna fold 77. Here's me thinking JJ was a tricky hand......

seanallen

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

If we get called ONLY by TT+ and AQ+ that's barely 4% of hands, so then they fold 96% of the time which is what makes it +EV, I was just picking up on the 'its never a winning play' line. Even against that range we still got 36% equity anyway, to add to the insane amount of folds we get. I agree 16BB is tons on sky, personally I'd minraise and then we either play postflop if flatted or have to decide whether we're calling it off or folding depending on who is it that shoves.
Posted by Lambert180

Versus this calling range from the CO we get called 12% of the time. 

7 out of 8 times we get it through and win 1.5bbs (+10.5bbs)

1 out of 8 times we are called. A 1/3rd of the time we win 20bbs, 2/3rds of the time we lose 18bbs. (-16bbs)

Not very good at maths so had to round the numbers down a bit think it's something like that though.    

TeddyBloat

EV(bet) = (1-F)*(CF*P1 - + (F*P2)

where

f = fold equity

cf = our capture factor [how often we win]

P1 = pot when called

B = our bet

P2= pot we win when villains fold

so using your numbers

EV(bet) = .12*(.33*32 - 16) + (.88*1.5)

= + 1.32bb from start of hand

very decent baseline to judge other actions by.

doesnt consider ICM, the value of playing lower variance poker v the table etc etc

Glenelg

I really need to call this guy Nash.   Anyone got his number?  

@Teddy....loving your work! ;-)

bbMike

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard!:

In Response to Re: This is not a diary, its a racecard! : Versus this calling range from the CO we get called 12% of the time.  7 out of 8 times we get it through and win 1.5bbs (+10.5bbs) 1 out of 8 times we are called. A 1/3rd of the time we win 20bbs, 2/3rds of the time we lose 18bbs. (-16bbs) Not very good at maths so had to round the numbers down a bit think it's something like that though.    
Posted by seanallen

That's more like it..!

Let's say the calling range is top 5% of hands and that he shoving through 4 players.

He's getting called 1/5 times, so 4 times he picks up 1.5BB. 0.66 times he loses 18BB and 0.33 times wins ~19BB.

So that looks like the most marginal thing ever, very slightly +EV! Shows the power of fold equity but also shows that it's far more profitable to shove from a later position. Also shows that we can shove say 44 here and get the same result.

Still, GL with the flips.

bbMike

Cross posted with Teddy, yeah looks about right except in this spot I thought it was an 18BB shove and we're getting called more than 12% shoving UTG 5-handed. Agree that as the range widens it becomes more EV though think AQ really is bottom for this sizing and we prob add 99 before AJ..? 

Think what this all tells us is that the shove there is unnecessary at best!

TeddyBloat

yeah, i dont know enough about ICM / 6max MTT ranges to comment on the optimal play in MTT's, but pocket pairs do really well in raised pots and also against competent 3bt jamming ranges [though maybe not from UTG, again this aint my format]. but PP's capture a lot of the pot post flop basically and minr is likely to be a much better play in pure chip ev and overall MTT play

TeddyBloat

how often do you think a minr gets through the blinds from UTG?

bbMike

In DTD at this level, about 90% lol!

People in general more wary of a minr UTG and fold way more than they should. Difficult to place a number though but at these stakes you're probably not getting shoved on by a much wider range than the range that calls a shove

bbMike

...assume we're never minr/folding though

TeddyBloat

The pure chip evs will likely run quite close tbh, i ran some quick CF numbers when flatted but with much lower fold equity than you suggest, and the equities were very close (but im not used to modelling multiway  situations)

But if we get the kind of fold equity you hint at, then that will make minr>> jamming on all fronts.

Add in lower variance, preservation of chips etc and that makes minr a much better play.

Nice to know, though,  that if youre in a table of MTT sickos who crush you you can ramp up variance and still be +ev whilst reducing the number of decision points we and villains encounter ( in other words points where you will make more mistakes than villain) . When against better players even when they call perfectly they cant profit in chip ev.