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Crazy bad runs
I have played on Sky for 3+ years and enjoyed my experience. I have made moderate money which paid for a trip to Vegas which is great. I play £10 DYM most days averaging about 6 tables a day. I have good runs and bad runs like any poker player and I can easily turn bad runs into even worse runs by tilting. I have worked hard to stop that and I have become pretty good at avoiding it now. However over the last week or so I have been on a crazy bad run which has resulted in my bankroll halving. I have not done anything differently. I have played my good hands and folded my bad ones if my stack allowed. I have had the normal amount of good hands but I know that as soon as I see AK AA KK AQ etc I know that I will be out of the table against any hand that calls me. We have all seen bad beats a million times and I get that but this has been something different. I can predict that when I have kk aagainst A7 and A will hit. AA will lose to 98 off which will hit a straight I can see it happening. On the tables regular players are all saying this is what happens if you cash out a large sum. Is that right? I have only cashed out once over a year ago, but they all say the same. Can this be what we sign up for - penalty bad runs for cashing out. Other players say that the software needs to encourage new or novice players by wins with rubbish hands so that they stay on the site and keep coming back - why? Can't they just find their own level like we all had to and work up the levels we got better?
This has shaken my faith. I am now looking at other sites not because I want to but I may as well get the easy runs from the software as a novice member and the sign on bonus. Sky, if you are reading this you need to rethink you policy. You have just lost a loyal member who has paid you approx. £2k in rake - is that what you want?
Does this experience ring any bells with anyone else. I would love to hear your thoughts. I know what some of you ate thinking - this is just another rant from some loser on a bad run and I would probably have said the same a little while ago. The money does not matter to me, it does not change my life but I want a level playing field. Comments please.
Comments
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yes.
Hi JimmyRiddle.
However there IS a way to guarantee winning hands forever......
Just keep depositing day after day, week after week. This confuses the software into doing the complete opposite to what it was designed for and it will dish you up lovely winning combinations across DYMs, MTTs and cash games.
Keep this information to yourself please mate, we don't want EVERYBODY winning do we??
They are totally different.
May be new to Sky but has been playing for years elsewhere.
If you are suggesting that Sky's software is biased towards a "new/novice" player then you are suggesting that it is fraud.
Can't win with AA sounds like a little entitlement tilt to me.
Gl with where ever you decide to play.
No, it is not right, & no, they don't "all say the same".
There is no "policy" to rethink.
Poker is an extraordinary game, & variance is an immensely powerful beast. It needs no help from software or anything else to work it's magic, which works both for & against us.
A glance at Sharkscoppe tells us you are a very successful player over a decent sample size - 2,000 games. You have - are - now suffering a 40 game downswing.
40 games over 2,000 games means nothing, it's how poker works, Live & Online, always has, always will.
Keep playing as you always have, & your results will be just fine.
Downswings ARE not only very frustrating, but are quite perplexing, too.
I play little £5 & £10 PLO8 DYM's, which are extremely low variance. I'm not great, but I know the game well, & play with reasonable competenence, & have cashed in 3 from 5 WSOP Bracelet Events @ PLO8, so I'm not a complete fish. Ought to be easy for me to outlast 3 players from 6, eh?
3 nights ago, I lost 11 out of 12 PLO8 DYM's, & I got my money in good on almost every occasion.
This is poker. It's the beauty of the game. You just need to understand, thats how it works, there are no "policies", when poker & variance combine, they don't need intervention, they are all powerful.
Keep playing, (here or elsewhere, it matters not), & you will soon resume your long term impressive results.
Changing sites, or pointing fingers, won't change a thing. Variance is a powerful beast, but it works both for us & against us.
PS - on Tuesday of this week, you lost 9 out of 11. That hurts, of course it does.
On Wednesday of last week you WON 8 out of 11. Bet you enjoyed that, & rightly so.
Same game. Same software. Same opponents. You remember one, & not the other. Why?
You are a good player, for sure - but you are NOT good enough to overcome variance on a bad day - not one player on earth is, even the big name Pros cannot beat variance when it turns against them.
Hope your luck changes soon, but to be honest, a 40 game downswing is nothing, & it may even extend.
Look at your results over all 2,000 games, not 40.
Good luck.
I've heard it called many things, but rarely that.
As to the enboldened sentence, I'm not sure if you are serious or not.
If you are serious, please be aware, that would be fraud, & multi-accounting, & if you get caught, you risk having all the funds in both accounts confinscated. And as you have "flagged up" what you may do & why, you could not prove ignorance.
You don't need to mess about, you are just on a short (so far!) downswing.
People say the daftest things, don't listen to them, just think it through logically.
Been a pleasure to chat.
Mr Button,
I was musing over the unpredictabilty of variance a few days ago, & a maths geek ("Phantom66") Posted this.
It is, really, nothing to do with poker, it's just maths. But it perfectly applies to poker.
It explains these "clusters" of wins or losses.
"clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters.
Nice backtracking OP, soon changed your tune eh.
"clusters" of 8 or 9 are perfectly normal. Nothing to do with software, or poker really. Just the facts. We cannot avoid, no matter what we do, these clusters. ''