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HH analysis
Step by step my thoughts.
Pre-flop q9o calling here as button range will be wide, we have the best hand often enough and its not a bad hand to play vs entire range.
Flop he is going to c-bet here a very large % of the time with a lot of equity in the hand still. I have 2nd pair and best hand here a lot of the time, he could also be value betting a worst hand.
Turn brings a ton more draws, hes gonna continue here with all h draws, C draws straight draws, will continue some of the time with gutshots and maybe sometimes A high no draw. Hes obviously gonna bet all sets/2pairs/overpair/tp maybe QQ/JJ/TT A9.
However he decides to bet pot. This means I can narrow his range down as he wouldn't take this line with thin value hands and basic draws.
I don't think he does this all the time with just flush draws. Perhaps half the time does it with Axhh = 4 Axcc = 4 (not including A6/4hhcc
Non-Showdown heart draws - 78hh T8hh T7hh 73hh 75hh 85hh 23hh 52hh JThh qthh qjhh = 11
Non-Showdown Club draws - JTcc T8cc T7cc 78cc 75cc 85cc 52cc 32cc 53cc = 9
Value hands = KK x 3 66 x 3 99x 1 = 7
I personally don't think he takes this line with AK KQ AA. So for value im including k9x6 k6x9 96x6 k4x9 =30
He also has 6xcc 9xhh hands if we say 65cc 67cc 68cc T6cc A6cc = 5 I got 9hearts so none them
River is complete brick means nothing. He bets 75% pot, Assuming the above inputs we have:
Value = 37
Bluffs = 25 +half Axcc/hh non-showdown 8 = 33
I am really tired and doing this by hand so I may be thinking stupid or may have missed out quite bit. Lemme know thoughts
Pre-flop q9o calling here as button range will be wide, we have the best hand often enough and its not a bad hand to play vs entire range.
Flop he is going to c-bet here a very large % of the time with a lot of equity in the hand still. I have 2nd pair and best hand here a lot of the time, he could also be value betting a worst hand.
Turn brings a ton more draws, hes gonna continue here with all h draws, C draws straight draws, will continue some of the time with gutshots and maybe sometimes A high no draw. Hes obviously gonna bet all sets/2pairs/overpair/tp maybe QQ/JJ/TT A9.
However he decides to bet pot. This means I can narrow his range down as he wouldn't take this line with thin value hands and basic draws.
I don't think he does this all the time with just flush draws. Perhaps half the time does it with Axhh = 4 Axcc = 4 (not including A6/4hhcc
Non-Showdown heart draws - 78hh T8hh T7hh 73hh 75hh 85hh 23hh 52hh JThh qthh qjhh = 11
Non-Showdown Club draws - JTcc T8cc T7cc 78cc 75cc 85cc 52cc 32cc 53cc = 9
Value hands = KK x 3 66 x 3 99x 1 = 7
I personally don't think he takes this line with AK KQ AA. So for value im including k9x6 k6x9 96x6 k4x9 =30
He also has 6xcc 9xhh hands if we say 65cc 67cc 68cc T6cc A6cc = 5 I got 9hearts so none them
River is complete brick means nothing. He bets 75% pot, Assuming the above inputs we have:
Value = 37
Bluffs = 25 +half Axcc/hh non-showdown 8 = 33
I am really tired and doing this by hand so I may be thinking stupid or may have missed out quite bit. Lemme know thoughts
Comments
i dont understand this. the more bluffs we think villain has in his range, the stronger our bluff catching range should be?
"If however, we think that villain is going to 3 barrell bluff us, then 2 other lines are far more appealing..."
again makes no sense, if you believe you are about to get bluffed you suggest either donking [fold out his bluffs] or check raising [fold out his bluffs]?
you seem to be suggesting c/calling all your strongest hands and being aggressive with your bluff-catchers when facing a villain who is capable of 3 barrelling air.
just sacrificing edge imo.
unless i've been whooshed
We have no edge from the BB.
that may be true from start of hand in isolation
however we should have reciprocal edge. that is we play our BB range better than the population of players in our games.
that is we lose less in the BB than when the average player is in the BB
if you are going to pot control with strong hands, why would you take aggressive actions with bluff catchers.
if you think villain has too much air in his range, why would you play bluff catchers aggressively?
the point of defending wide in the BB v wide openers is because it loses less money than playing a tight BB range.
once you get postflop if you have reads that villain is air heavy then x/c /> /> x/r with 2nd pair imo.
i dont play deep cash, so i'd be grateful if you could explain why raising or donking turn is better than x/calling when you believe you are going to be facing 2 bets from a player who bluffs too much.
"In general, if your going to passively take the check/call line on 3 streets you will lose way more money in the long term than had you lost if you had folded preflop."
"By calling the river you are implying that villain has a tripple barrel bluff in his repetoire, if this is the case then all the more reason not to be taking the Check/Call line on 3 streets without a very strong hand. This should be more weighted to 2 pair and sometimes TPTK."
This is simply not true. Quite often in BB vs BTN spots, we're doing a lot of check/calling (and rarely leading) because the BTN's range very often has an equity advantage over our range. Therefore, we don't want to build the pot by leading, or x/r too often, especially with "marginal" hands like this one.
I think hero took the highest EV line if readless, and with reads that suggest villain is perhaps more aggressive than most, the 3 street x/c on this runout becomes even more +ev.
when you raise or donk turn you deny villain one card.
but you also ensure you face a very strong range on the river.
you called pre, check called flop and check raised or donked turn.
villain simply wont get to the river without an extremely tight and value heavy range. he can ssimply check back showdown [most of which beats you] and can bet all his value and you are in a really sh*ty spot.
when you c/call you face his entire turn barrelling range which we have already estimated to contain enough air to c/call. villain now has a relatively wide river starting distribution and has plenty of air [given our reads] and we have a relatively easy decision when we check.
the equity share we deny him is swamped by the value we gain from keeping his air in his river starting range.
imo
[QUOTE Sorry, but again, you missed the point. The Button's range does not have an equity advantage! Why? Because we have already established that the button is opening wide enough for us to call on BB with Q9o! That's the OP's read! In fact, going by the OP's read, we have the equity advantage. We're probably ahead here. But we know that we're going to get 3 barrell bluffed. OP Read, his own words...
the button can easily have the equity advantage. folding the BTN costs nothing. in fact he should only play hands that have a positive ev from start of hand.
we in the BB have 1bb already invested. we can afford to be -ev from start of hand. that is if we lose 80bb/100 from start of hand calling then we should call as folding yields -100bb/100
Q9o is likely ahead of much of villains opening range as it is ahead of hands like JT, 78s etc etc in raw equity terms. not many hands beat it by that metric
"However he decides to bet pot. This means I can narrow his range down as he wouldn't take this line with thin value hands and basic draws." Sorry, why did we call the river again?
the idea is villain becomes more polar. he bets the strongest parts of his range and weaker draws. on the river these draws either become nuts or air.
when we have a bluff catcher v a polar range if he has too much air we always call. if he has too much value we always fold.
If he has air on flop, then doesn't it make sense to try and fold them out with a donk bet or check raise on the turn before he does make a hand?
trying to fold out air against an aggressive villain is such a strange strategy when we have a bluff catcher. we shouldnt fear difficult decisions later on in a hand. all you do is ensure you face stronger ranges on later streets.
especially when we make good second pair.
notice that button can still open profitably even if we defend properly.
if we lose 0.8BB [80bb/100]from start of hand on average when calling then button has profited from start of hand and we have done better than folding [-1bb or 100bb/100].
the sunk cost of the blinds means that both players can do better putting money in the pot than folding. it isnt a zero-sum game in that respect.
i posted that as you seemed to suggest that our defending properly and the button being + EV were mutually exclusive.
again cash aint my game, but i cannot see how that can be the case, no do i agree that minimising losses is our goal with Q9 on K96xx against a villain who we believe is going to bluff three streets a high % of the time.
theoretically post flop at any decsion point the ev of folding is zero.
therefore if your goal is to minimise losses you just fold.
the only reason for not folding turn is if we feel his turn betting range contains enough bluffs for us to be + ev compared to folding.
so by x/c turn we simply x/f river and it has cost us one bet. we dont believe he will bet all his air, so when we check river we win when he checks back. we fold when he bets river.
why are we raising turn?
if we cant call a river bet, it's fine to x/fold - 1 bet is the cost
when we x/r turn it has cost us substantially more than one bet to see the river.
Weird 3/4, pot, 3/4!
As played I would fold the turn.
While calling flop is standard, you could check raise the flop, and continue betting ott on a good number of cards.