HH analysis

mrleemr1

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

In Response to Re: HH analysis : Did you notice that one of the two lines I suggested was to donk turn? Not check/fold.  If our fold to cbet against wide villain is below 40% and he bets 2/3's pot then it stops him making an instant profit. - So this is why we call flop. If we check, fold turn, or call, check, fold river, then we have defeated the purpose of expanding our range. We can't do both, we can't say we will expand our range then play fit or fold post flop. It will haemorrage more money. We need to play back and do it frequently. We're also looking at the hand from the perspective that the OP has called the river anyway.  As played betting goes - Villain makes it 3bb, Hero calls 2bb - Pot = 6.5bb Flop - V bets 5BB - H Calls - Pot = 17bb (starting to round them up) Turn - V bets 17bb - H Calls - Pot = 51bb River - V bets 36bb - H Calls  Hero commits 60bb to find out if he's good or bad. If... Turn - H bets 17bb (folding out wide range and denying V the chance of improving) V either folds or calls and we increase the chance of check/check river. Hero commits 24bb to find out if he's good or bad. Or if... Turn - V bets 17bb - Hero can raise between 34-52bb, gets same info and it's still cheaper than calling river bet. Donking turn is the better line since we have decided to expand out defending range. Check raising turn is the better line if, like the hero, you have already decided that your making a river call when you don't think that the river hits Villains perceived range. 
Posted by yuranASSet

When villain shoves turn with his bluffs what do we do? Imo raising turn here is terrible

yuranASSet

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

In Response to Re: HH analysis : When villain shoves turn with his bluffs what do we do? Imo raising turn here is terrible
Posted by mrleemr1

Villain folds out most of his bluffs if he is as wide as you suggest. Anyway, like I said, you clearly made your mind up to call river on the turn. So why is it terrible that he shoves our raise on the turn if you think your ahead?

The point I made several times is to do with stategy against a wide opener. You can't call wide and play fit or fold. 

Villain maybe triple B's because you have showed weakness. It's nice that you talked yourself into it but you can't call the river. So how is raising turn terrible compared to check calling river?

TeddyBloat

Villain folds out most of his bluffs if he is as wide as you suggest. Anyway, like I said, you clearly made your mind up to call river on the turn. So why is it terrible that he shoves our raise on the turn if you think your ahead?

this is just incorrect thinking.

the only reason to c/c turn and river is if you think he is too weighted to air when he bets turn and river.

that is: you are ahead of his 'betting when checked to range' [well techinically you have enough equity v that range to make calling > folding - you dont need to be ahead equity wise to call even a river bet]

having the required equity v a 'bet when checked to range' is not the same thing as having the equity to call v his 'shove over a turn check-raise range'

the ranges arent the same. 

as you say, you fold out villains bluffs when you play aggressively against them on the turn.

having a c/c, c/c, c/f range is not a leak btw.

not having a c/c, c/c, c/f range likely is.

If our fold to cbet against wide villain is below 40% and he bets 2/3's pot then it stops him making an instant profit. - So this is why we call flop.

we call flop because it yields a higher ev than folding or check-raising.

auto-profit calculations are one of the most misunderstood and misapplied of all poker math.

we dont want to make villain's air indifferent between betting and open folding.

even being balanced / gto orienated we dont want to make villains bluffs 0ev as he can then unilaterally increase the EV of his air by checking it and increase his overall EV.

there will be asymetric textures where villian can min-bet his ENTIRE range and we have to fold the vast majority of our range.

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grantorino

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

Step by step my thoughts. Pre-flop q9o calling here as button range will be wide, we have the best hand often enough and its not a bad hand to play vs entire range. Flop he is going to c-bet here a very large % of the time with a lot of equity in the hand still. I have 2nd pair and best hand here a lot of the time, he could also be value betting a worst hand. Turn brings a ton more draws, hes gonna continue here with all h draws, C draws straight draws, will continue some of the time with gutshots and maybe sometimes A high no draw. Hes obviously gonna bet all sets/2pairs/overpair/tp maybe QQ/JJ/TT A9. However he decides to bet pot. This means I can narrow his range down as he wouldn't take this line with thin value hands and basic draws. I don't think he does this all the time with just flush draws. Perhaps half the time does it with Axhh = 4 Axcc = 4 (not including A6/4hhcc Non-Showdown heart draws - 78hh T8hh T7hh 73hh 75hh 85hh 23hh 52hh JThh qthh qjhh = 11 Non-Showdown Club draws - JTcc T8cc T7cc 78cc 75cc 85cc 52cc 32cc 53cc = 9 Value hands  = KK x 3 66 x 3 99x 1 = 7 I personally don't think he takes this line with AK KQ AA. So for value im including k9x6 k6x9 96x6 k4x9 =30 He also has 6xcc 9xhh hands if we say 65cc 67cc 68cc T6cc A6cc = 5 I got 9hearts so none them River is complete brick means nothing. He bets 75% pot, Assuming the above inputs we have: Value = 37 Bluffs = 25 +half Axcc/hh non-showdown 8 =  33 I am really tired and doing this by hand so I may be thinking stupid or may have missed out quite bit. Lemme know thoughts
Posted by mrleemr1

Do you have any reads on villain or are you just making up these ranges? 52s,73s not always in opening ranges for example. No idea why he cant have AA,AK etc

Pre: Its a fold readless for me. He prob opens wide from btn,but playing Q9o oop negates that imo. You may have good direct odds v wide btn opening range, but implied odds much more important in thuis situation

Flop is standard

Turn: I fold to the full pot bet. Generally this indicates strength ime, we may face another pot bet on river. Also villain will sometimes check back draws or made hands he doesnt think he can get 3 streets of value from

River: Fold. Dont know why you are deciding his river betting range is same as turn betting range

Also neither turn or river great barrell cards for him

rancid

I would fold pre - other than that as played calling....

you not going to win much on playing with just your perceived equity.

what do you do on 28Jr or Kh7h2s....your going to have to rep a lot of your perceived range on a lot of flops and run outs to make this profitbale - and yes versus laggy barrelers you can make this +EV but your going to have to be spot on with your reads - you also need to have some idea how villian responds to 3 bets ip - if they fold too much then you could incoprorate this option

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

 As played betting goes - Villain makes it 3bb, Hero calls 2bb - Pot = 6.5bb Flop - V bets 5BB - H Calls - Pot = 17bb (starting to round them up)

 Turn - V bets 17bb - H Calls - Pot = 51bb River - V bets 36bb - H Calls  Hero commits 60bb to find out if he's good or bad.

 If... Turn - H bets 17bb (folding out wide range and denying V the chance of improving) V either folds or calls and we increase the chance of check/check river. Hero commits 24bb to find out if he's good or bad. 

Or if... Turn - V bets 17bb - Hero can raise between 34-52bb, gets same info and it's still cheaper than calling river bet.

 Donking turn is the better line since we have decided to expand out defending range. Check raising turn is the better line if, like the hero, you have already decided that your making a river call when you don't think that the river hits Villains perceived range.  

 You neglect to mention the scenario of what happens when we raise turn and villain either 3b or flat... and when he flats, the size of the pot (and thus subsequent bet) from villain is going to be much larger.

Also, if we are raising the turn with Q9 here then that hands are we flatting? Villain can very easily 3barrel us with 100% of his range because we just don't have any bluff-catchers in our range by the river.

Listen to the advice of other posters when they tell you that c/r turn is just really bad.

bearlyther

Dont understand the fold pre comments if were folding q9 vs button over 100bbs deep then button should raise 100% of hands and print money

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

Dont understand the fold pre comments if were folding q9 vs button over 100bbs deep then button should raise 100% of hands and print money
Posted by bearlyther

Except he's not raising 100% of hands. If he were to start raising 100% of hands then ofc we are never folding Q9. Playing exploitatively means you have to re-adjust all the time.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

Dont understand the fold pre comments if were folding q9 vs button over 100bbs deep then button should raise 100% of hands and print money
Posted by bearlyther

Except he's not raising 100% of hands. If he were to start raising 100% of hands then ofc we are never folding Q9. Playing exploitatively means you have to re-adjust all the time.

bearlyther

Hero has given no info to suggest that villan is opening tight.  Sure if hes tight we can adjust our defending frequency some what but id still be very surprised if q9 shouldnt be included in our defending range bb vs button even vs a tight range.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: HH analysis:

Hero has given no info to suggest that villan is opening tight.  Sure if hes tight we can adjust our defending frequency some what but id still be very surprised if q9 shouldnt be included in our defending range bb vs button even vs a tight range.
Posted by bearlyther

When no info is provided I go off population reads and generally there are lots of players that open a pretty tight BTN range. Q9o looks better than it is. Villain probably doesn't open Q8o so we only dominate some of the suited Qx he opens. 

Q9s and QTo should be the worst Qx that we are defending imo.

TeddyBloat

still think its a nitty fold pre, ivan.

btn is correct to open a tight range with us in the blinds: he has to be profitable from start of hand and he has a competant player in his big blind.

we already have 1bb invested; even if we lose 99bb/100 from start of hand then we are way better than folding in terms of cEV. we most definately can play wider than villain. you are correct to use population tendencies, but in any preflop decision also we must consider the average players post flop play. the average player isnt going to play his range accurately across flops, and i would argue wont play sufficiently well to deny us equity share enough for us to want to fold a hand as strong as Q9. that it doesnt dominate Qx in his range isnt of much consequence [though note it does dominate J9, T9, 98s, 97s type holdings].

note that a tight value range is also a well defined range and we wont be put in difficult spots by the average player.

the fact we have a 1bb investment in the hand, the fact villains range is well defined, the tendency for the average player to play sub-par face-up ABC poker poorly on board run-outs all point to Q9 being a very comfortable readless flat. i personally dont think it is close.