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Absolute joke.

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  • tomgooduntomgoodun
    edited December 2015
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : If you want to look at it like that, then you were lucky that he didn't hit his jack on any of the first 4 cards, as he will 16% of the time.  Breaking it down and fixating on these kind of things is going to drive you nuts if you continue to play poker.  Just worry about what you can control will be the best advice.  ----- Say you have a bag of 100 balls.  99 are red.  1 is black.  You are challenged to pick a red ball from the bag at random, and you reach in and do so.  You have been lucky to complete your challenge.  99% of the time you will be successful, but over your sample of 1 trial, you have been successful 100% of the time, a number which is more than 99% and therefore you are running above expectation (being lucky) If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time.  The key is the sample size.  You could easily pick the black ball out 4/5 times in the first 100 trials. Which would be unlucky, but it will happen sometimes.  Just like the 2 outer (jack) can come on the river 100% of the time over a sample of 1 or 2 trials.  Do it a Million Gazillion, Bajillion times, and you will get more accurate and expected results. ---- fwiw you can apply this to everything in life, everytime you drive your car and safely reach your destination you have been lucky.  You should expect to crash like 0.00000000001% of the time. "As played" (or as driven) over that sample of 1 journey, you've crashed 0% of the time.  Everytime you have a takeaway and don't get food poisoning, you have been lucky. (I run particuarly good in this area myself over a huge sample) For the same reasons.  run better, mannnn :D   
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    ^ <3

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  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited December 2015
    If you look at it in isolation, when you get pocket aces all-in against 72o preflop and win you've been moderately lucky in that particular hand, running 13% above expectation.

    Your aces had an 87% chance of winning. You hit 100%.

    If you consider yourself to be super-unlucky the one in eight times your aces lose in this situation then you should also consider yourself a little lucky when they win too.
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  • goldongoldon
    edited December 2015
    The Trouble with statistic's is the proportion of players that don't use then out weigh the non players that do use then, this resulting in tilt on a massive scale making bad player good and good player better.  splutter!
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  • davelufcdavelufc
    edited December 2015
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : If you want to look at it like that, then you were lucky that he didn't hit his jack on any of the first 4 cards, as he will 16% of the time.  Breaking it down and fixating on these kind of things is going to drive you nuts if you continue to play poker.  Just worry about what you can control will be the best advice.  ----- Say you have a bag of 100 balls.  99 are red.  1 is black.  You are challenged to pick a red ball from the bag at random, and you reach in and do so.  You have been lucky to complete your challenge.  99% of the time you will be successful, but over your sample of 1 trial, you have been successful 100% of the time, a number which is more than 99% and therefore you are running above expectation (being lucky) If you re-set the bag, and repeat an infinite number of times (it will be fun!) then your results will regress to what they should be, you will pick red balls out 99% of the time.  The key is the sample size.  You could easily pick the black ball out 4/5 times in the first 100 trials. Which would be unlucky, but it will happen sometimes.  Just like the 2 outer (jack) can come on the river 100% of the time over a sample of 1 or 2 trials.  Do it a Million Gazillion, Bajillion times, and you will get more accurate and expected results. ---- fwiw you can apply this to everything in life, everytime you drive your car and safely reach your destination you have been lucky.  You should expect to crash like 0.00000000001% of the time. "As played" (or as driven) over that sample of 1 journey, you've crashed 0% of the time.  Everytime you have a takeaway and don't get food poisoning, you have been lucky. (I run particuarly good in this area myself over a huge sample) For the same reasons.  run better, mannnn :D   
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH


    What an amazing answer. I read your diary and am blown away how you keep coming up with new and interesting stuff..

    Ur a star  fella.. Keep it up. #impressed
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited December 2015

    haha cheers Dave, hopefully that's genuine :)

    I was ul yet again tonight when I failed to win the lottery.

    Been doing it years, I'm supposed to win the jackpot 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of the time and am currently @ 0%

    Running -ev on my -ev investment.

    ---

    It did give me an idea though to look into the history of the draws. 

    Since lotto began, the least frequent ball to be drawn as the bonus ball is number 13, drawn 21 times.

    The most common bonus ball has been number 37, drawn 57 times, almost 3 times as often.

    All balls have an equal chance so this is a pretty huge varation and proves 3 things.

    1) Variance is real

    2) Sample sizes needed for it to even out need to be enourmous.

    3) My Saturday nights have hit rock botttom.

    ----

    Next week i'll win. Or all the above is b*****x & its rig ged :(
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  • CATCH-22CATCH-22
    edited December 2015
    dohhhhhh u are either a genius or totally mad either is ok keep postin luvin your thread
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  • NChanningNChanning
    edited December 2015

     Isn't the real problem with this thread the lack of pictures?

     How am I supposed to empathise with this poor man's pain if I can't go through exactly what he did?

     (clearly bad beat threads are extremely tedious and should generally be snap-deleted by a moderator within seconds but actually this one was quite good as it contained...a /> humour b> some pretty good advice on thinking about how poker works).

     It wouldn't really be a very good game if the best hand pre-flop was 100% guaranteed to win every hand though.
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  • GILLS69GILLS69
    edited December 2015
    In Response to Absolute joke.:
    I've had absolutely no luck on here all week. The 7:30pm freerolls I've finished just out the money both nights and had some very bad luck along the way but tonight takes the biscuit, not least because I was in a good position. No surprise that the guy with more chips gets the luck, it's getting sad when I can predict the river so frequently, not one ounce of me was surprised he hit his jack on the river.
    Posted by jimm338
                                               We all get bad runs;but look on the bright side-you might've been playing with your own money.That would be proper conspiracy material!
                                                                            Sky eh? What a fit-up,
                                                                                                            Fartin, Martin Centre-Partin
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  • GILLS69GILLS69
    edited December 2015
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
     Isn't the real problem with this thread the lack of pictures?  How am I supposed to empathise with this poor man's pain if I can't go through exactly what he did?  (clearly bad beat threads are extremely tedious and should generally be snap-deleted by a moderator within seconds but actually this one was quite good as it contained...a /> humour b /> some pretty good advice on thinking about how poker works).  It wouldn't really be a very good game if the best hand pre-flop was 100% guaranteed to win every hand though.
    Posted by NChanning
                                                 Hi Bad Beat                     
                                                                 It would be a brilliant game if all my pre-hands were %100 winners,
                                                                                        Merry Xmas Neil,
                                                                                                           (to you and your family) 
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  • Tlaloc666Tlaloc666
    edited December 2015
    The problem with statistics is that 90% of people dont understand them.. and the other 20% think they are made up.
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  • mallrat12mallrat12
    edited January 2016
    Dont you just hate all these smug know it alls. Hello its called BEATS brags & variance, nothing worse than being frustrated and annoyed at some of the outcomes of hands only to be smugly told "its part of the game", "thats poker", etc.  What help is that to anybody?
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited January 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    Dont you just hate all these smug know it alls. Hello its called BEATS brags & variance, nothing worse than being frustrated and annoyed at some of the outcomes of hands only to be smugly told "its part of the game", "thats poker", etc.  What help is that to anybody?
    Posted by mallrat12
    What help did he want?
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  • Darkangel7Darkangel7
    edited January 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    The problem with statistics is that 90% of people dont understand them.. and the other 20% think they are made up.
    Posted by Tlaloc666
    There's lies, damned lies and then theres statistics ;)
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  • MilitantGMilitantG
    edited January 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : I once finished 4th in a national maths competition, 
    Posted by RLT16
    Out of the money then ;)
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  • LmfaoAllinLmfaoAllin
    edited January 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : Out of the money then ;)
    Posted by MilitantG
    wp
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  • shepspaulshepspaul
    edited April 2016
    came back to sky after a year away have found nothings changed still certain players always get the card they need when they need it and rush to skys defence  nothing but blatent self interest and cronyism
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  • daphne56daphne56
    edited April 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    If you look at it in isolation, when you get pocket aces all-in against 72o preflop and win you've been moderately lucky in that particular hand, running 13% above expectation. Your aces had an 87% chance of winning. You hit 100%. If you consider yourself to be super-unlucky the one in eight times your aces lose in this situation then you should also consider yourself a little lucky when they win too.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    NEXT POST BY GOLDEN HIT NAIL ON HEAD ITS NOT THE CARDS ITS THE PLAYERS I ONLY PLAY 2.20 GAMES NOW FINDING TOO MANY CHANCERS PLAYING WHICH IS GOOD BUT THEY PLAY EVERY HAND THERE GOING TOO HIT MIRACLE HANDS THERE CALLING ALL INS NEEDING RUNNER RUNNER AND HITTING IN CASH GAMES YOU HAVE CHANCE GETTING IT BACK TOUREYS ITS BYE BYE NEXT GAME 

         EXAMPLE AA V 72 ALL IN PRE WHY IS 72 ALL IN 
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited April 2016
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke.:
    In Response to Re: Absolute joke. : NEXT POST BY GOLDEN HIT NAIL ON HEAD ITS NOT THE CARDS ITS THE PLAYERS I ONLY PLAY 2.20 GAMES NOW FINDING TOO MANY CHANCERS PLAYING WHICH IS GOOD BUT THEY PLAY EVERY HAND THERE GOING TOO HIT MIRACLE HANDS THERE CALLING ALL INS NEEDING RUNNER RUNNER AND HITTING IN CASH GAMES YOU HAVE CHANCE GETTING IT BACK TOUREYS ITS BYE BYE NEXT GAME       EXAMPLE AA V 72 ALL IN PRE WHY IS 72 ALL IN 
    Posted by daphne56
    Why is earth round?
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