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Independent Variance Research
Tonights Session
Total all in hands with cards to come: 9
Hands where I was favourite: 8/9
Hands won: 6/9
Below detailed is my % chance of winning at the all in point versus whether I won or lost (W/L)
1. 97% - W
2. 72% - L
3. 95% - W
4. 81% - L
5. 82% - W
6. 19% - L
7. 59% - W
8. 93% - W
9. 82% - W
Comments
People ask the rigged question on every poker site, there is a simple reason underpinning this...
It has been psychologically proven that people when they do not get the desired results (in poker, exams, job promotions etc etc) they are faced with 2 options; either they are to blame (tweaks could be made to their game) or outside factors (the site is rigged). It is an easier pill to swallow that outside factors are to blame (the site is rigged) and thus people generally elect for this option as it resolves their own cognitive dissonance.
If you want results to improve the best option is to look inward and try to improve your own game (there are always ways you can improve and most of the best players realise this and continually try to find ways to tweak and improve their game).
P.S. I am not saying any of this personally at you as I do not know you, your game or results; I am just addressing the 'rigged question'.
I would stake an awful awful lot that Sky is not rigged.
I mean if you done it over 10,000 hands which might seem a lot, that is a cash game session to some players who might lose over that session but know they are winning players and it will likely average out in their favour over 20 sessions (200,000 hands) if not 50 sessions (1/2 million hands).
The number of hands you need to garner results that in any way make inferences you can generalise to the reliability of the RNG on a site is mind boggling.
There is an incentive for poker sites to have things 'rigged' in favour of the weaker players (the fish will keep money, not go bust so quickly, and generate mucho rake for said site). This has to be tempered by the fact that if said site ever done such a thing their credibility and site would be destroyed if they were found out. It is quite easy to see in this light it isnt worth the bother to get involved in such practice.
On top of that Sky has a huge brand name that goes way beyond their poker endeavours, why would they ever risk that by 'rigging things'?
The real winning percentages are done preflop because this is when the board is unknown
overpairs will win 80% of the time when against underpairs. Your unlikely to see them call all the way down to the river unless they have a set. the only exception is when AA-QQ get all in pre or when middle pairs make hero calls.
KK will lose around 30% of the time against Ax, the reason they look more common is because Ax has been able to see the river card, if betting is made they'll fold a number of times on the flop or turn it's being weak or getting in preflop cause the most losses. The same thing applys when Ax is defeated by a less dominating one they amking very weak bets or getting chips in pre.
When it's a spot like AK v98s it's 60/40 preflop so getting all in preflop is sure to see a number of beats, the AK makes it's cash thanks to a dry flop containing a high card and chargeing them high odds for a flush draw because if this is done they'll fold these often enough making the AK get is winnings.
The final one is your flip and at showdown these will have as many wins as they have losses, they cash is won through decent aggression with the overcards putting pressure on whether or not they'll believe you have over cards or premium pair.
I have run bad on here for a seriously long time, today alone I lost with over pair vs under pair all in pf 8 times.
7-1 chance of them flopping trips on me. and it happened 8 out of 14 hands I played.
the other hand I had trips on the flop and shoved and they made a straight with runner runner, and 1 other hand the guy made a 4 flush with 2 unsuited cards. I won the other 4 pots, 1 with the worst hand.
I know how to calculate my odds, the number of outs etc. I'm not a great player but I can do simple maths and I do run bad most of the time.
I don't think the site is fixed, it is silly to believe that, I mean why would they need/want to fix it?
I do however run bad.
I also know players on here who do run good, and they win the flips, or split pots more than others.
People can say that it is just the player noticing the pots they get a bad beat in, and not the ones they get lucky on.
people can say its easier to blame the site or luck, but I am doing neither.
I'm not the best player, I am not full of ego trying to big myself up.
I do think that some people are luckier on here than others.
If anyone wants to use me as an experiment I am more than happy.
If I am proven to run even then I will be very happy.
I am trying to improve my game every day and I have had lots of advice and support form great people and players on this site. I would 1 day like to get somewhere in the poker world and say thank you to the kind players who have spent their time helping me along.
Today was a particularly bad day of beats so sorry if I sound very negative, I am normally very happy;)
I do just play the spin tables now and I know that they have more variance as people go with any old junk often. But it is good to see how you run because often people are all in pf.
good luck at the tables and if I can be apart of your test then use me please
I would love to let someone analyse the hand history from a certain time and actually see how sick it is.
#STANDARD