Independent Variance Research

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

Can you crunch some numbers and give me some odds pls. What are the odds of hitting a set  and quads whilst holding two different numbered or picture cards in the pocket.ie any two cards really apart from a pair.
Posted by chilling

I think you are about 1000/1 for the quads and about 20/1 for the set (trips as it would probably be referred, I think set is a term generally used for poket pair hitting the 3rd card)

AyrGraeme

1. 97% - W

2. 72% - L

3. 95% - W

4. 81% - L

5. 82% - W

6. 19% - L

7. 59% - W

8. 93% - W

9. 82% - W

10. 97% - W

11. 2% - L

12. 42% - W

13. 72% - W

14. 46% - W

15. 44% - L

16. 97% - W

17. 61% - L

18. 82% - L

19. 97% - W

20. 84% - W

21. 72% - W

22. 67% - L

23. 14% - L

24. 27% - L

25. 15% - L

26. 95% - W

27. 23% - W

28. 74% - W

29. 69% - L

30. 95% - W

31. 95% - W

32. 82% - W

33. 71% - W

34. 5% - L

35. 65% - L

36. 64% - L

37. 91% - L

38. 40% - L

39. 90% - W

40. 86% - W

41. 39% - L

42. 61% - L

43. 70% - W

44. 85% - W

45. 51% - W

46. 81% - W

47. 80% - W

48. 81% - W

49. 39% - W

50. 98% - W

Hands all in as favourite: 37/50

Hands won: 31/50

Average chance of winning: 67%

Hands won: 62%

AyrGraeme

51. 75% - L

52. 93% - W

53. 82% - W

54. 30% - W

55. 66% - L

56. 70% - W

57. 72% - L

58. 27% - W

59. 95% - W

60. 54% - W

61. 18% - L

62. 19% - L

63. 89% - W

64. 66% - L

65. 19% - L

66. 54% - L

67. 30% - L

68. 91% - W

69. 95% - W

70. 90% - W

71. 57% - W

72. 91% - W

73. 70% - W

74. 82% - W

75. 71% - W

76. 71% - W

77. 73% - L

78. 68% - L

79. 18% - L

80. 77% - W

81. 69% - W

82. 11% - L

83. 66% - W

84. 71% - W

85. 64% - W

86. 17% - L

87. 28% - L

88. 71% - L

89. 5% - L

90. 16% - L

91. 19% - L

92. 5% - L

93. 27% - L

94. 91% - L

95. 83% - W

96. 82% - L

97. 18% - L

98. 19% - L

99. 80% - W

100. 79% - W

Hands all in as favourite: 71/100

Hands won: 56/100

Average chance of winning: 61%

Hands won: 56%

AyrGraeme

1st 100 hands done.

AyrGraeme

% Range - Total hands - Average % - Expected wins - Hands won

1-10% - 4 - 4% - 0.16 - 0

11-20% - 13 - 17% - 2.2 - 0

21-30% - 7 - 27% - 1.9 - 3

31-40% - 3 - 39% - 1.2 - 1 

41-50% - 2 - 43% - 0.9 - 1 

51-60% - 5 - 55% - 2.8 - 4 

61-70% - 14 - 66% - 9.2 - 5 

71-80% - 16 - 74% - 11.8 - 11 

81-90% - 18 - 84% - 15.1 - 15

91-99% - 18 - 93% - 16.7 - 16

Here is a brief summary of the 1st 100 hands broken down by % favourite in incriments of 10.  Basically if tue randomness and varient is holding the red number (expected hands won at that particular range) and the blue number (actual hands won) should be fairly similar.

AyrGraeme

Basically in most cases the numbers seem to be expected. The main exception is the 61-70% range where I won just 5/14 when the general expectation would be around 9 but in terms of randomness you would expect 1 or 2 of the ranges to throw unexpected results.  I was also slightly unlucky to lose all 13 of the instances where I was an 11-20% underdog but again there is about a 10/1 chance that would happen if you run those hands so not a massive shock.

I did run slightly better than I should have by winning 3/7 in the 21-30% range and winning 4/5 in the 51-60% range.

Overall I know it's a small sample size but with most figures holding true to expectation with 1 or 2 anomolies, the figures do seem to be prdictably random!

GELDY

you clearly don't run like GELDY

my stats would make you sick

AyrGraeme

1. 82% - L

2. 10% - W

3. 72% - L

4. 73% - W (73-23)

5. 47% - W (47-50)

6. 77% - W

7. 45% - W

8. 25% - L

9. 60% - W

10. 95% - W

11. 58% - L   *3 way 58-27-12-(3)

12. 71% - W

13. 52% - L *3 way 52-31-13-(4)

14. 70% - W

15. 80% - W

16. 47% - L

17. 66% - W

18. 91% - W

19. 90% - L

20. 62% - W *3 way all in 62-12-26

21. 72% - W (72-24)

22. 45% - L

23. 59% - L

24. 81% - W (81-19)

25. 95% - L

26. 96% - W

27. 81% - W

28. 93% - W (93-0)

29. 79% - L *3 way all in 79-21-0

30. 54% - L

31. 13% - L (13-82)

32. 86% - W

33. 43% - L (43-56)

34. 9% - L

35. 46% - W

36. 95% - W

Bracketed hands are where there is a chance of a tie.

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

you clearly don't run like GELDY my stats would make you sick
Posted by GELDY

I did run slightly worse than I should have in the 1st 100 hands and that trend is continuing for this batch.

There is a 50/50 chance you will win more or less hands than expected so if it did happen for 2, 3, 4 or even 5 batches of 100 hands then it wouldn't be that unusual.

DOHHHHHHH

Everyone missing the most noteable finding of the research.

How tf do you get it in good so often? 

Preach .......

chilling

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing.

You could do this for the rest of your life with the same or very similar results.

goldon

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing.
Posted by chilling

 
The Dandelion's have gone it's the daisy's now. ?

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

Everyone missing the most noteable finding of the research. How tf do you get it in good so often?  Preach .......
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

That one is fairly easy mate.  You ever play the 2p/4p tables on here??

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

The paint isnt dry yet and the grass keeps growing. You could do this for the rest of your life with the same or very similar results.
Posted by chilling

Yep. Hopefully after about 6 months there will be enough evidence to put the conspiracy theorists to bed.

MattBates

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research : Yep. Hopefully after about 6 months there will be enough evidence to put the conspiracy theorists to bed.
Posted by AyrGraeme

Do you actually believe you will have a significant sample size in 6months?

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research : Do you actually believe you will have a significant sample size in 6months?
Posted by MattBates

For what I am looking at, yes I will have.

AyrGraeme

1. 82% - L

2. 10% - W

3. 72% - L

4. 73% - W (73-23)

5. 47% - W (47-50)

6. 77% - W

7. 45% - W

8. 25% - L

9. 60% - W

10. 95% - W

11. 58% - L   *3 way 58-27-12-(3)

12. 71% - W

13. 52% - L *3 way 52-31-13-(4)

14. 70% - W

15. 80% - W

16. 47% - L

17. 66% - W

18. 91% - W

19. 90% - L

20. 62% - W *3 way all in 62-12-26

21. 72% - W (72-24)

22. 45% - L

23. 59% - L

24. 81% - W (81-19)

25. 95% - L

26. 96% - W

27. 81% - W

28. 93% - W (93-0)

29. 79% - L *3 way all in 79-21-0

30. 54% - L

31. 13% - L (13-82)

32. 86% - W

33. 43% - L (43-56)

34. 9% - L

35. 46% - W

36. 95% - W

37. 91% - W

38. 43% - L

39. 38% - W (38-61)

40. 91% - W

41. 7% - L (7-80)

42. 83% - W

43. 70% - W

44. 81% - W

45. 82% - W

46. 98% - W (3 way all in 98-1-1)

47. 7% - X (7-68)

48. 76% - W (3 way all in 76-14-10)

49. 89% - L

50. 89% - W

51. 63% - L

52. 72% - W (72-23)

53. 54% - W

54. 5% - L

55. 82% - W (82-17)

56. 93% - W (93-6)

57. 74% - W (74-23)

58. 99% - W

59. 95% - W

60. 27% - L

61. 91% - W

62. 47% - L (3 way all-in 47-(3)-21-29) W side pot v 21

63. 86% - W

64. 46% - L

65. 9% - L

66. 99% - W

67. 82% - W

68. 47% - W

69. 65% - W

70. 68% - W

71. 91% - W

72. 80% - L

73. 64% -W

74. 23% - L

75. 93% - W

76. 59% - W

77. 93% - W (93-6)

78. 80% - W

79. 23% - W

80. 9% - L

81. 20% - X (20-0)

82. 5% - L (5-83)

83. 47% - L

84. 70% - L

85. 81% - W

86. 91% - W

87. 80% - W

88. 87% - W

89. 76% - L

90. 65% - W (65-34)

91. 91% -W

92. 2% - L

93. 23% - L

94. 18% - L

95. 95% - W

96. 61% - W (61-7)

97. 11% - L

98. 9% - L

99. 91% - W 3 way 91-4-3-(2)

100. 31% - L 3 way 31-38-31

chilling

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with.

Can you start again pls.

swanstu

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with. Can you start again pls.
Posted by chilling

Variance is the effect of luck/chance.

If you are better than your opponents by 0.1% on average (which would make you a fairly good player) then there's still a pretty big chance you are a losing player, due to luck, not to mention commission paid to sites etc. Gambling is fine, if you understand it is still gambling.....no matter how many poker books you read or hands you experience.

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

variance is variance.Rigged must mean in favour of certain players.I think we need to know the alias of these players your in pots with. Can you start again pls.
Posted by chilling

LOL

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

There are too many posts i think with percentages being the only way to go.After all, one pot can make or break.Of course its important to know your percentages and pot odds etc, but its not the be and end all.
Posted by chilling

Hence I won't draw any conclusions before I've looked at 1000 hands or so

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

1. 82% - L 2. 10% - W 3. 72% - L 4. 73% - W (73-23) 5. 47% - W (47-50) 6. 77% - W 7. 45% - W 8. 25% - L 9. 60% - W 10. 95% - W 11. 58% - L   *3 way 58-27-12-(3) 12. 71% - W 13. 52% - L *3 way 52-31-13-(4) 14. 70% - W 15. 80% - W 16. 47% - L 17. 66% - W 18. 91% - W 19. 90% - L 20. 62% - W *3 way all in 62-12-26 21. 72% - W (72-24) 22. 45% - L 23. 59% - L 24. 81% - W (81-19) 25. 95% - L 26. 96% - W 27. 81% - W 28. 93% - W (93-0) 29. 79% - L *3 way all in 79-21-0 30. 54% - L 31. 13% - L (13-82) 32. 86% - W 33. 43% - L (43-56) 34. 9% - L 35. 46% - W 36. 95% - W 37. 91% - W 38. 43% - L 39. 38% - W (38-61) 40. 91% - W 41. 7% - L (7-80) 42. 83% - W 43. 70% - W 44. 81% - W 45. 82% - W 46. 98% - W (3 way all in 98-1-1) 47. 7% - X (7-68) 48. 76% - W (3 way all in 76-14-10) 49. 89% - L 50. 89% - W 51. 63% - L 52. 72% - W (72-23) 53. 54% - W 54. 5% - L 55. 82% - W (82-17) 56. 93% - W (93-6) 57. 74% - W (74-23) 58. 99% - W 59. 95% - W 60. 27% - L 61. 91% - W 62. 47% - L (3 way all-in 47-(3)-21-29) W side pot v 21 63. 86% - W 64. 46% - L 65. 9% - L 66. 99% - W 67. 82% - W 68. 47% - W 69. 65% - W 70. 68% - W 71. 91% - W 72. 80% - L 73. 64% -W 74. 23% - L 75. 93% - W 76. 59% - W 77. 93% - W (93-6) 78. 80% - W 79. 23% - W 80. 9% - L 81. 20% - X (20-0) 82. 5% - L (5-83) 83. 47% - L 84. 70% - L 85. 81% - W 86. 91% - W 87. 80% - W 88. 87% - W 89. 76% - L 90. 65% - W (65-34) 91. 91% -W 92. 2% - L 93. 23% - L 94. 18% - L 95. 95% - W 96. 61% - W (61-7) 97. 11% - L 98. 9% - L 99. 91% - W 3 way 91-4-3-(2) 100. 31% - L 3 way 31-38-31
Posted by AyrGraeme

Average W-D-L %: 63-2-35

Expected W-D-L: 63-2-35

Actual W-D-L: 61-2-37

1-10% - 9 - 7% - 0.67 - 1

11-20% - 4 - 16% - 0.62 - 0

21-30% - 5 - 24% - 1.21 - 1

31-40% - 2 - 35% - 0.69 - 1

41-50% - 11 - 46% - 5.03 - 4

51-60% - 7 - 57% - 3.96 - 3

61-70% - 11 - 66% - 7.24 - 9

71-80% - 15 - 76% - 11.4 - 11

81-90% - 15 - 84% - 12.62 - 12

91-100% - 20 - 94% - 18.8 - 19

chilling

Im keeping pace with you graeme, im on page 800 reading War And Peace.

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

Im keeping pace with you graeme, im on page 800 reading War And Peace.
Posted by chilling

LOL ;D

AyrGraeme

5-(2)-64-29 L

5-45-37-12 L

7-(20)-2-34-37 L

9 L

10-80 L

14-(1)-53-32 L

17-80 L

17 L

18 L

19 L

20-79 W

20-(3)-43-34 L

21 L

24-70 L

24-73 L

24-(1)-30-13-32 L

26 L

28 L

29-69 L

29-15-54 (2) L

31-(1)-15-51-2 L

32 L

33 W

34-(1)-9-56 W

35 L

36-59 L

37 L

38 W

39 W

42-57 L

44 L

45-36-19 L

47 L

47 L

50-49 W

51 L

51-(18)-0-31 W

53 L

54 W

56 L

56 W

57 W

57 L

57 W

59 W

61-38 L

62-(14)-5-19 W

62 L

62 W

63-18-19 W

64 L

64 L

64-(2)-12-(1)-23 L

65-34 W

66-32 L

67 W

67 W

68-22 W

68 W

69-(1)-29-1 L

70-28 W

70-24 W

70-(1)-11-18 W

70-29 W

70 W

71-8-(11)-11 L

73-25 W

73 W

74-25 W

74-25 W

79 W

80-19 L

81 L

81 W

82 W

82 W

82-14-4 W

83 W

84 L

84 W

85 W

86 W

86-11 W

86-9 W

88-9 L

89 W

90-8 W

90-9 L

91 W

92 W

93 W

93 W

93-6 L

95 W

95 W

96 L

96 W

97-3-0 W

99 W

99 W

3rd 100 results

Expected W-D-L: 59-1-40

Actual W-D-L: 52-0-48

1-10% - 5 - 7% - 0.36 - 0

11-20% - 7 - 18% - 1.23 - 1

21-30% - 8 - 26% - 2.05 - 0

31-40% - 9 - 35% - 3.15 - 4

41-50% - 6 - 46% - 2.75 - 1

51-60% - 10 - 55% - 5.51 - 6

61-70% - 20 - 66% - 13.22 - 13

71-80% - 7 - 75% - 5.24- 5

81-90% - 16 - 85% - 13.59 - 12

91-100% - 12 - 95% - 11.39 - 10

AyrGraeme

A summary of the 1st 3 sets of 100 hands:

Win % above or below: In all 3 sets of 100 I have run slightly worse than the expected hands won by 2%, 5% and 7% so all fairly close to expected results.  All falling on the wrong side for me which is not completely surprising after only 3 samples this is only a 7/1 shot so no conspiracies here.

Expected wins for 10% chance increments: Effectively with 30 samples, 20 of them fell within less than 1 of the total expected hands won which suggests predictable randomness running true.  Of the 10 which did not, I fared well in 3 and badly in 7.  Again for a 50/50 chance run 10 times, 3-7 would not be an uncommon record to occur randomly.

CATCH-22

so all is as expected

AyrGraeme

In Response to Re: Independent Variance Research:

so all is as expected
Posted by CATCH-22

It would appear so................

oynutter

This is the most interesting and informative discussion that has ever been posted on a poker forum ever!!! --except that one that was posted by Richard Orford, obviously

tomgoodun

The tin hat brigade may say the reason these samples are showing not rigged so far is because it's on the forum and the doom switch has been regulated for Graham. #cantwinmate.