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another little spot to ponder.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xxxxxxxx | Small blind | 150.00 | 150.00 | 2952.50 | |
| xxxx | Big blind | 300.00 | 450.00 | 1202.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| NEW | Raise | 1050.00 | 1500.00 | 2070.00 |
Now I realise this is OH8 but I would really love to see everyone comment, perhaps someone like TK or PIngu could relate this holding to an HE hand for reference? (I have a suit but its not nutted and I have a marginal lo)
5 players remaining, I have 3k, other stack is 1.4k. I am in cut off and the aforementioned 1.4k stack has folded.
For background The raiser is a new player, ranges so far have leaned towards eclectic HE type hands and I would fully expect him to call here judging from previous encounters.
I am definitely not locked here but I have a good sized stack and there are two player with less than half my chips.
What would you do?
Comments
I can see why people would advocate a fold but I think I would be jamming for several reasons...
Firstly, if we fold this, what is our calling/3b range? Are we just folding everything that is opened for a raise?
Secondly, if our range is so tight that we will fold this then everytime we meet an aggro table at these kind of blind levels it will be very hard to maintain our stack. If a couple of orbits go past and we are down to 2100 (probably by then at 200-400 level) then we are going to have to be prepared to be a lot more aggro with much more marginal holdings than what we have currently in order to maintain our stack.
I also think the comparisons with Hold'em are a little light on the ranges. I would equate this to QQ or maybe KK. I understand we will have less % chance of scooping here than we would with QQ or KK in Holdem but we can also get split pots.
Talking of split pots, that is something that has to be factored in here. It isn't necessarily all or bust.
I don't have an OH8 calculator handy but I would guess we are only about 20-25% to be scooped. Probably near 45% to scoop the whole pot and 30-35% to split. If we bust 1/4 or 1/5 times calling, are we really going to cash 75%-80%+ by folding? We are still 5 handed with blinds going up fast so I am not so sure, I would guess by folding the average player would probably have a 70-75% cash rate from that position. If we scoop then we really have it locked up, if we split then we are as we were but have at least let the table know we have some sort of calling/3b range and aren't a pushover which also has to be factored in for this and future games.
So basically I don't think there is 'a whole lot in it' but I would be reraising here. This also will usually get the blinds to fold and at least they are bleeding a few chips off. I can see the merits in folding and applying pressure in subsequent unopened pots in position in an attempt to pick up uncontested chips but 5 handed I would be reraising.
Good thread Hendo.
First, let's look at our hand strength in isolation.
This is a Top 100 hand in a ranking of some 5,300 "O8 Hand Rankings". It will scoop some 20% of the time, & chop 35% of the time. It's a very big hand, particularly late stages when our decisions are all pre-flop & we won't be playing down the streets at it will all be going in pre.
Early doors, with the blinds small, it is MUCH harder to play, as you'll mostly get a few callers & it becomes very hard to play on most flops that contain low cards.
I think I am jamming here, though there are some caveats - see next post.
Blinds at 150-300, & you don't say how soon it is before they go 200-400. It's amazing how quickly our stack gets eroded by blinds at these levels, & in 2 levels time, we might be wishing we had jammed this, especially if the shorty doubles.
I've seen better spots, & I don't love it, but all other things being equal (see next post) I'm getting it in.
And who knows, the Opener might even fold.
I think we need to consider another variable in these spots, & it applies equally to NLH or Omaha.
Adjusting to the table/opponents
As a general rule, when the table is very aggro - let's say Eon, Marky, Hotwheals, what I call the "high variance guys" - we need to fight fire with fire. I like the idea of doing the opposite to everyone else, but in this case, these boys will run over the table if we let them. So we need to go to war sooner, & what will be will be.
At the other end of the range, consider a table full of sticky stations. No names, but we have plenty of them. These boys limp in EVERY hand & call ANY raise with ANY 4. Sometimes they get a stack, & that makes them even stickier.
But here's the thing. It's RANK BAD PLAY, they are making mistakes almost every hand. And yes, they'll get a stack sometimes, & win a few games.
BUT..... the longer the game lasts, the more mistakes they are going to make.
So if we have a table full of these sort of players, I tend to nit up more.
Adjust to the table
Sticky Station Sorts
5 handed last night, one kid had 5,900 chips.
He finished 5th.
How can that happen? Think if I did that very often, I'd quit poker & marry Haysie.
On another table on Monday, I had 2 of them lined up, both to my immediate left, proper sentry duty stuff. NO WAY of getting any raise past either of them.
I raised it up to 1,000 @ 150-300, they both called, & the board came very awkward, so we all checked it down.
They both had identical hands.
Q-9-6-6
I nearly fainted. It's hard to imagine many worse hands in 08, & TWO of them called a full pot raise with it.
So when we have a table full of these Sticky Stations, we must adjust, & let them bust each other. More often that not, they will.
Against a middling hand like 5678 double suited we are 40.10% to scoop and 25.97% for the Lo.
Against a hand that doesnt dominate our low draw such as A4TJ with one flush draw we are only 34.58% to scoop, however we only have a 16.29% chance of being scooped, so less than 1 in 6 chance of busting.
Edit: against the 2 callers with q966 (in this AA4T scenario) they would have between 3% and 7% chance of scooping so I would still be throwing chips in their eye
My numbers are based on an as played simulation of 100,000 hands.
Anyway, to me, it's a clear "pot".
Really enjoyed the games last night! The break seems to have reset my patience levels which is obviously rather important
Couldn't agree more with your general point that our approaches need to consider who we are playing etc! Always good to be willing to adapt to the specific settings.