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another little spot to ponder.

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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited January 2017
    A couple of observations from the detail of the calcs I ran.

    Generally we are c20-25% to be scooped against and 30-50+% to scoop our opponent.

    There was nothing really between us and KK23 for the low which seemed odd to me. In fact we are a very slight favourite.

    I suppose that to get 3 low cards out of 5678 is not so likely and if an A or 4 hits we were behind anyway, and we have the blocker to the A. If a 2 or 3 hits our opponent is counterfeit. Does that explain it? Am I missing something?

    I reckon I could win a lot on a prop bet by asking people what is the favourite for the low AAT4 or KK23?
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  • HENDRIK62HENDRIK62
    edited January 2017
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder.:
    A couple of observations from the detail of the calcs I ran. Generally we are c20-25% to be scooped against and 30-50+% to scoop our opponent. There was nothing really between us and KK23 for the low which seemed odd to me. In fact we are a very slight favourite. I suppose that to get 3 low cards out of 5678 is not so likely and if an A or 4 hits we were behind anyway, and we have the blocker to the A. If a 2 or 3 hits our opponent is counterfeit. Does that explain it? Am I missing something? I reckon I could win a lot on a prop bet by asking people what is the favourite for the low AAT4 or KK23?
    Posted by Phantom66

    Just to clarify are you say in the first highlighted part that A4 is slight favourite for the low?

    In the second are you saying that most would think the 23 hand is favourite?
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited January 2017
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder.:
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Just to clarify are you say in the first highlighted part that A4 is slight favourite for the low? In the second are you saying that most would think the 23 hand is favourite?
    Posted by HENDRIK62

    Yes and Yes 

    Logically 23 is fav v A4 - eg 865 on board then the 23 wins.

    I think the 2nd A makes a difference here - but waiting for Tikay's thoughts
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  • HENDRIK62HENDRIK62
    edited January 2017
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder.:
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder. : Yes and Yes  Logically 23 is fav v A4 - eg 865 on board then the 23 wins. I think the 2nd A makes a difference here - but waiting for Tikay's thoughts
    Posted by Phantom66

    So more chance of the 23 being counterfeited as there are only 5 cards to counterfeit the A4 hand?
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited January 2017
    Yes it's the only reason I can think of. I think there is a freudian slip in your 2nd spelling of counterfeit, but I also think it fits well when it happens to us.
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  • HENDRIK62HENDRIK62
    edited January 2017
    In Response to Re: another little spot to ponder.:
    Yes it's the only reason I can think of. I think there is a freudian slip in your 2nd spelling of counterfeit, but I also think it fits well when it happens to us.
    Posted by Phantom66

    Lol just noticed that, will quickly edit. :-)

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