£5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam

Phantom66

In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam:

The risk/reward factor would be heavily weighted towards a call for me. If we started the hand with 2k then it would lean me the other way.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

I get where you are coming from, the risk of losing at 2k is losing the game, whereas the risk of losing at 4k is being back in the pack.

We all have different perceptions of risk, the thought of losing the tournament may seem the bigger risk to you, the thought of unecessarily giving up a winning position is a bigger risk to me.

For the sake of this post let's assume we doubled up really early and so are on 4k with the 4 remaining players on 2k.

If we are 4k v 4 opponents on 2k we have a huge edge and should be cashing over 90% of the time, we cannot get much extra reward by being at 99% if we win the hand, and we are back in the pack, one of 4 2k stacks with a 4k stack at the table. We are now fighting for 2 cash spots out of 4 players and that pretty much equates to starting position, maybe a little higher as one player is out and the 4k isnt totally locked up. Whatever the actual numbers, there is a much bigger drop in our equity if we lose than there is a gain in our equity if we win. 

If we have only just started the tourney and are one of 6 level 2k stacks, then we are potentially taking our equity up to 90% by winning. It will be a bigger drop to 0% if we lose. 

If we are 65%+ to win the hand and 90%+ to go and cash after that, we are 58.5%+ to cash - which is a decent profitable cash rate. I think 65%+ is a optimistic though.

I actually fold both then, but in game I probably do call both sometimes, I know I have called with overpairs to suspicious looking overshoves for sure. I wish I knew how many times I got that right or wrong.

Jac35

My last post on this.

Many different % seem to be thrown about

90% to cash 5 handed at 15/30 seems hugely inaccurate to me

Phantom66

In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam:

My last post on this. Many different % seem to be thrown about 90% to cash 5 handed at 15/30 seems hugely inaccurate to me
Posted by Jac35

82.6% of statistics are made up on the spot

PS I would be interested in how you define "hugely inaccurate" though. 10% isn't "huge" but if it was 10% high that would mean an 81% chance of cashing.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam:

My last post on this. Many different % seem to be thrown about 90% to cash 5 handed at 15/30 seems hugely inaccurate to me
Posted by Jac35

Couldn't agree more, still a long way to go in the DYM (unless a couple of huge clashes happen).

4k at 15/30 can easy become 3k by 50/100, then 2k by 100/200.

In the example, if we call and win to take a 6k stack 4 handed then I think you can safely assume you should cash at least 90% of the time.

DOHHHHHHH

Anyone checking the flop? 

MattBates

In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam:

Anyone checking the flop? 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

It is an option but I think there are enough scare cards for us on the turn. I would of thought mostly we are happy to c bet and win whats there.

Lambert180

Deffo think the current blind level is being overlooked. If my win % is something like 56% going into this game (I really dunno what it would be) doubling up early probably only increases that to maybe 65-70% absolute max.

I'd agree that if stacks were me on 4k and 4 players on 2k each and it was 150/300 then I'd fancy myself to be in a much better spot but at 15/30 there still a lotttt of poker to be played, a lot of blinds to be paid before anyone is gonna get too excited etc.

I agree with Harry too that us being on 4k makes it more of a call than if we were on 2k which seems the total opposite to everyone else's thinking. From a 4k stack, if we get it right/win we are pretty much 100% to cash imo, certainly vvv high, if we lose, we are back to starting stack so still our original 56% ish to cash, maybe even 60% cos 1 player is already gg.

So if we're on 4k, it's pretty much locking up the game or worst case we're still in a pretty good spot. Whereas 2k, the options are bust out and our equity is now 0% OR we get it right, but even still when we win and double to 4k at 15/30 it does very little to increase our chances of winning. So we'd be giving up our ~56% equity to try and get to 65-70% but at the potential cost of being out. Much less appealing than the options being 'win it now or have a 56-60% of winning'

bbMike

In Response to Re: £5 DYM - OP Facing Big Over-Jam:

Many different % seem to be thrown about
Posted by Jac35

Thought this was worth another read.