Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!
FRIDAY SCOOP6 TRIAL RUN (P.S. NOT A CAT IN HELL'S CHANCE OF IT BEING WON)
On the subject of draw, this is what drawbias.com has to say about the two tracks:
LINGFIELD (A/W)
Key Characteristics
The Lingfield all weather course uses polytrack and the surface is probably the fastest of all the A/W racecourses in the UK. The belief is that front runners cannot win at Lingfield and because of this you often get falsely run races as nobody wants to lead. It is actually possible to win from the front if a horse gets given a soft lead. Otherwise the final turn which is preceded by a downhill section appears to act as a kind of slingshot similar to that in cycling, and the lead can change many times in the last furlong as horses shoot from the pack.
5 FURLONGS:
No particular bias here at all despite what the media would have you believe about the perils of being drawn wide.
6 FURLONGS:
A very even spread suggests little advantage exists. The conclusion is no bias exists.
7 FURLONGS:
Not a big bias here, although it is interesting that the outside stall has won twice as many races as any other single stall. When horses are drawn in this outside stall you will often here pundits say that they have no chance as they are drawn in the car park. This obviously isn't true.
8 FURLONGS:
Rather surprisingly there appears to be a slight bias towards high drawn runners, and it seems a disadvantage to be drawn low
PACE ANALYSIS:
Lingfield has the reputation of a perfect course for hold up horses, with the last horse to commit for home normally winning. However the stats don’t back this up.
As shown below apart from over 5 furlongs where hold up horses are favoured, over the other distances Lingfield is pretty average in terms of pace bias amongst the all weather courses.
5 Furlongs – 5th out of 5 courses
6 Furlongs - 3rd out of 5 courses
7 Furlongs – 2nd out of 4 courses
8 Furlongs – 3rd out of 5 courses
END
0 ·
Comments
NEWCASTLE (A/W)
Key Characteristics
Newcastle is the only All Weather racecourse in the country which has a straight mile. Together with its width this very much means that it is a galloping track. The surface is Tapeta, which is the same as the Chelmsford and Wolverhampton surfaces.5 FURLONGS:
Obviously still very early days with little data to go on. But at the moment high draws, particularly very high does seem to be favoured over 5 furlongs at Newcastle with so far 9 of the 21 handicap races being won by horses drawn in one of the 2 highest stalls.
6 FURLONGS:
Very little data to go on yet, and I wouldn't want to draw any conclusions.
7 FURLONGS:
Like all of the distances on the straight at Newcastle their doesn't appear to be much of a draw bias, with high very slightly favoured
ONE MILE:
Not a great deal of data to go on, but early impressions are that any bias is negated over a mile where the horses have plenty of time to obtain track position.
END
Petite Jack 9/1 draw 6
Watersmeet 13/2 draw 14
Natural Scenery 4/1 draw 11
Aprovado 11/2 draw 12
Excessable 12/1 draw 2
Safe Voyage 7/1 draw 2
Inaam 5/1 draw 4
Mutamid 9/2 draw 3
Lancelot Du Lac 7/2 draw 6
Kimberella 7/2 draw 5
Royal Birth 13/2 draw 3
Wild Hacked 6/1 draw 14
Abareeq 12/1 draw 11
To Be Wild 4/1 draw 10
Ennaadd (BANKER) 11/8
Inevitably in these types of fields there is at least one outsider that knocks everyone out of the SCOOP6, so confidence level is very low, but just for fun, we wouldn't go near this with a barge pole in reality.
Also our strategy is to cover at least 60% of the betting market in each leg.
With the number of runners here, combined with how open the races are, this is not possible, so it is literally, just a hypothetical punt as the strategy is for smaller fields and less competitive races.
Anyhow, Enjoy!
11:31:04
Betfair Bet ID O/0786566/0000659
Pinzolo - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
9
Cohesion - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
6
Art Collection - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
7
Orient Class - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
13
New Road Side - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
11
Aprovado - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
7
Florencio - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
8.5
Mon Beau Visage - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
Chaplin Bay - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
11
Kimberella - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
4.5
Lancelot Du Lac - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
To Be Wild - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
5
Ennaadd - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed
2.37
Cohesion
Mon Beau Visage
I am not as brave as Wynne to attempt the SCOOP6 but will do some Placepots at Lingfield and Newcastle. Will post my selections here shortly:
Bet Confirmation Required
You have made the following selections. Please confirm to place bet.
Bet Confirmation Required
You have made the following selections. Please confirm to place bet.
It would just be too big a perm to add any more, it's certainly a "would be" long shot.
GL to all those having a bet.
I don't think Winning Story was in your original selections on Wynne's initial thread, which was a shame, other wise we'd still be in with our "virtual" bet. GL with the Placepot.
Cheers,
G
As I said, Winning Story was on my initial short list, before I replaced it with a trimmed down version.
Part of the reason I removed it was that no-one had it in their selections (that's my excuse anyway)
So always worth putting your views out there, as it is a team effort.
Cheers,
G
No real surprise there.
I'm heading out now, so won't be posting for a few hours.
GL all!
FYI, I quite fancy Chaplin Bay here in the 2.55PM at a price.