** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** NAPS THREAD ** MKGUNNER WINS INAUGRAL MONTHLY TITLE AFTER EPIC BATTLE WITH P

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In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : With your concerns over two potential bankers? I didn't know there were two Dahlik yes but what is other? I would have Deauville as banker if we go ahead not dahlik but just my opinion and don't don't go for pot just because I don't like him. All I would repeat is that just because horses are odds on it doesn't mean they are definitely going to win. ok include Dahlik  but  I wouldn't have him as banker.
Posted by vaigret

Yes indeed.

We have the statistician versus the form interpreter here, and statistically (in a vacuum), the shorter the price the better the chance.

The whole strategy is based on trying to cover 60%+ of the betting market in each leg, but we need one leg where we try to do this with just one horse. (Or get as close to it as we can)

So ideally we want a 4/6 shot or shorter to achieve this.

:=)

P.S. Regarding the other option as a "banker", Micky suggested Khairaat in the first. Your suggestion, Deauville may well win, but at 15/8 it would be only covering 31% of the betting market, and would be statistical suicide for our strategy, but I respect your opinion. It will definitely be in the perm, but with at least one other.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

chester 3.35 CUNCO            2.25 ROYAL ARTILLARY            1.30 BERKSHIRE
Posted by wynne1938

Hi Wynne. Re your selections.

3.35 CUNCO (Probably will have this)

           2.25 ROYAL ARTILLARY (Probably will have this)

           1.50 BERKSHIRE (If supported strongly in the market)

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In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

CHESTER 13 50 KHAIRHAAT 15 35 TAMLEEK 14 25 FOLKSWOOD
Posted by MICKYBLUE

Re below Micky:

13 50 KHAIRHAAT (Yes)

15 35 TAMLEEK (Probably)

14 25 FOLKSWOOD (Probably unless big drifter)

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In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

oh dear have to go with Berkshire 1.50 after wittering on about him. ,As a two year old /early three the stable thought they had another Generous, yes that good, however colic and injuries has meant he has had limited campaign. Having said that when he is on he is very good. Now the bad news , not sure how good he is on bends most of his best performances on straight tracks and don't like Spencer. Over to you folks !!!! 2.25 Deauville but as I said yesterday when I do O.briens horses I put mockers on them 3.00 Muthawatheb Wouldn't have Dahlik as banker in the kind of race he in but what do I know. 
Posted by vaigret

Hi Vaigret. Re whether in perm, re below:

Berkshire 1.50 (In perm if market support)
Deauville 2.25 (Yes)
Mathawatheb (Probably)

StayOrGo

Obviously a lot more selections still to come in, and the removals process, so we'll see how things shape up.

Cheers,

G

Phantom66

Disclaimer - I am new to this and not a member of the syndicate so I nearly didn't post but thought I would share my views anyhow on the point of contention re:Is Dahik a suitable banker. Feel free to disregard anything I say here.

I understand why you need an odds on banker (very well explained in the strategy thread)

I share Vaigret's concerns about Dahik. I struggle to see how any juvenile can be fair value at odds on in a 13 horse race on a course that is new to all and such a technical test with the added need for a good start out of the stalls. The notes on Dahik say it ran green on 1st run, so has to be a risk, of course it could also mean it has learned from that and will improve here.

I don't see much to strongly oppose it with either, but the field does contain 2 horses with form and draws inside in Auntie Pam and Dragons Tail and an interesting 1st time runner in Kat Ostrophic. 2 of those are fillies with the 5lb allowance too and on this min distance if they can get to the rail first I think that will be useful to have over the colts.

In short if I am making a single bet for value I wouldn't touch Dahik.

Of course if the market puts it at odds-on come lunch time then who am I to judge.

Phantom66

Will three NAPs count for the table? Or do you just want 3 for selection/removal purposes?

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In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

Disclaimer - I am new to this and not a member of the syndicate so I nearly didn't post but thought I would share my views anyhow on the point of contention re:Is Dahik a suitable banker. Feel free to disregard anything I say here. I understand why you need an odds on banker (very well explained in the strategy thread) I share Vaigret's concerns about Dahik. I struggle to see how any juvenile can be fair value at odds on in a 13 horse race on a course that is new to all and such a technical test with the added need for a good start out of the stalls. The notes on Dahik say it ran green on 1st run, so has to be a risk, of course it could also mean it has learned from that and will improve here. I don't see much to strongly oppose it with either, but the field does contain 2 horses with form and draws inside in Auntie Pam and Dragons Tail and an interesting 1st time runner in Kat Ostrophic. 2 of those are fillies with the 5lb allowance too and on this min distance if they can get to the rail first I think that will be useful to have over the colts. In short if I am making a single bet for value I wouldn't touch Dahik. Of course if the market puts it at odds-on come lunch time then who am I to judge.
Posted by Phantom66

Thanks for your thoughts here Phantom.

So following on from Micky's suggestion about potentially having Khairaat in the first as a possible alternative banker to Dahik?

How do you feel about that?

I think if we can't find a banker that gets a general consensus then we should not attempt the perm, as the strategy requires a card with a solid banker, and these may not be solid enough. There are always going to be differences of opinion, but I'm not really getting a warm and fuzzy feeling over either banker.

So very interested in your thoughts on Khairaat.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

Will three NAPs count for the table? Or do you just want 3 for selection/removal purposes?
Posted by Phantom66

All three will count for the naps table. To make it absolutely clear, this thread is for your nap selections.

I will create another thread later tonight for those that will be involved in the removals process.

So please ONLY PUT NAP SELECTIONS NOT REMOVALS here.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

We could pass Thursday and potentially go for it on Friday with "Cliffs of Moher" as a banker in the 2.25PM.

Does this "banker" float peoples boat better?

Of course, if one/both of the "bankers" win on Thurs, the rollover will probably be gone.

Decisions, decisions. :=)

Feel free to input.

G

P.S. As it is still up in the air if we go for it or not, either way, all three selections will count for the naps table.

unknown_username

we can imo safely remove 5 so thats 8 left im hopefull of a non runner or 2 as well.

auntie pam is 1 im keeping eye on. but as you say phantom there are other value horses in. i personaly dont think dahik will be odds on tomorrow unless there is a few non runners. which is 1 reason i looked for second banker.

if it looks like we cant agree on a banker which imo is a must then maybe its best to pass which would be a major shame as i think this is do-able barring last race.

i just quickly did a perm with no banker but think the last needs more but 

1st 2 selected

2nd 2 selected 

3rd 3 selected

4th 3 selected

5th 2 selected 

6th 4 selected 

which works out 288 bets but leaves us with horrid few selections to remove

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

we can imo safely remove 5 so thats 8 left im hopefull of a non runner or 2 as well. auntie pam is 1 im keeping eye on. but as you say phantom there are other value horses in. i personaly dont think dahik will be odds on tomorrow unless there is a few non runners. which is 1 reason i looked for second banker. if it looks like we cant agree on a banker which imo is a must then maybe its best to pass which would be a major shame as i think this is do-able barring last race. i just quickly did a perm with no banker but think the last needs more but  1st 2 selected 2nd 2 selected  3rd 3 selected 4th 3 selected 5th 2 selected  6th 4 selected  which works out 288 bets but leaves us with horrid few selections to remove
Posted by MICKYBLUE

Hi Micky, to do this we move so far away from the strategy, as with the open handicaps we will have way less that 60% coverage of the betting market, which is why we need, 4,5,6 selections in some legs.

The whole premise is that we need a banker to allow us an extended perm elsewhere.

I take your point, and it does look an appealing thing to do, but I suspect one of the handicaps will let us down even with three or four selections. Also even with 2 selected in each of the banker races, if the banker doesn't win, there is no guarantee that our 2nd choice will.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

OK, we have had lots of discussion.

Lets see how the market lies tomorrow.

I will post late morning regarding any market moves and we can try and get a consensus then.

If there is still a lot of uneasiness, I suggest we give it a miss.

The lesser of the two evils is probably a missed opportunity rather than a preventable loss.

Although clearly if we don't do it tomorrow and the rollover is gone, then we will test the patience of the syndicate members further as we await another sizable rollover.

Cheers,

G

unknown_username

i couldnt stress enough that agree with you regarding banker mate even if it ends up losing as in long run it will save us money plus win us money due to us having more in the open races which is your plan.

i also really dont think we should make a decision until tomorrow due to non runners, market movers etc.

if we donot end up attempting this i recommend we do a trial and kick ourselfs when it comes up trump.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

i couldnt stress enough that agree with you regarding banker mate even if it ends up losing as in long run it will save us money plus win us money due to us having more in the open races which is your plan. i also really dont think we should make a decision until tomorrow due to non runners, market movers etc. if we donot end up attempting this i recommend we do a trial and kick ourselfs when it comes up trump.
Posted by MICKYBLUE

Yes my plan is to go through the whole process and decide nearer the time.

If we abort, I will make it absolutely clear on the threads and email.

But lets do everything as if we are going for it.

I have received the prepped spreadsheet from Roger and the Remover's list will be out at about 00.45am. Please start working on your removals then, or in the morning, and also highlight if there are any you want me to add back in.

Cheers,

G

unknown_username

Good hunting whatever decision made. Full backing from here , from running the Scoop6 syndicate I know how difficult this is and you doing a hell uva lot of work on this.

by the way don't think Berkshire will be backed heavily

unknown_username

ive been working on removals and have a good idea already i need to hit sack as up at 6am for work  

ill post non runners whilst on train by 7am then keep updating hourly.

ps let me know if you need to tidy thread ill delete my posts tomorrow 

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

ive been working on removals and have a good idea already i need to hit sack as up at 6am for work   ill post non runners whilst on train by 7am then keep updating hourly. ps let me know if you need to tidy thread ill delete my posts tomorrow 
Posted by MICKYBLUE

No worries, I'm going to be a bit later than anticipated with the removals spreadsheet so don't wait up anyone.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

Good hunting whatever decision made. Full backing from here , from running the Scoop6 syndicate I know how difficult this is and you doing a hell uva lot of work on this. by the way don't think Berkshire will be backed heavily
Posted by vaigret

Thanks Vaigret.

I want everyone to feel represented, although it's impossible to please everyone all the time, and I am sure wrong choices will be made, and sometimes the right ones.

But I do want everyone that wants to, to have their say, that's important.

People have voiced their opinions and I need to decide what to do, sometimes I'll go with the right choices, sometimes I'll get it wrong, sometimes we'll all get it wrong, but when/if, between us, we do get it right, it will be a team effort which we have all participated in, so any potential success will be a credit to us all.

I do not profess to be a horse racing expert, I am more of a probability and statistics guy.

I believe, in a vacuum, if the odds of the horses accurately reflect their chance, then we have a viable mid/long term strategy.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

Please see new proposal for Chester today on link below:

Removers process and Naps process will still work as before.

Cheers,

G

https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3ae0fe4c56-4826-4c14-a350-298f784f4e3dForum%3a902ab96e-b209-4e97-96a2-98a6b9a864a8Discussion%3ae60b813e-ea59-4295-afcc-daca65f3f22a

Snuffer

2.25 Folkswood

3.35 Cunco

4.05 Dahik

StayOrGo

Hi all.

Please note that I will also keep a separate yearly NAP's table that contains just the selections from live runs. So it's an early chance to head that most meaningful table.

Cheers,

G

Phantom66

My 3 Naps for Chester

15.00 Rebel de Lope

15.35 Venice Beach

16.35 Poet's Society

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In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

My 3 Naps for Chester 15.35 Venice Beach 16.35 Poet's Society 17.05 Caponova
Posted by Phantom66

Hi Phantom, can you please amend Caponova as it is the 7th race, we are just doing the 6 Jackpot races.

Cheers,

G

jordz16

3.00 Sharp Defence

4.05 Dragons tail

4.35 Sayesse

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available.:

In Response to Re: Jackpot Syndicate Naps Table. League Tables now available. : Hi Phantom, can you please amend Caponova as it is the 7th race, we are just doing the 6 Jackpot races. Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

Thanks, done with an edit - added Rebel de Lope

MISTY4ME

  KHAIRAAT   1.50

DEAUVILLE   2.25

VENICE BEACH    3.35

GOOD LUCK with your jackpot attempt today

StayOrGo

My selections are:

3.00PM: 04 - Mutawatheb

3.35PM: 05 - Tamleek

4.05PM: 01 - Dahik

zadoc

    13:50    KHAIRAAT

    14:25    POET'S WORD

    15:00    AREEN HEART

    

StayOrGo

Hi all, can all interested parties please take a look at the potential perms on the opening post on the thread below. I would welcome any early thoughts. I have tried to incorporate everyone's NAP selections.

https://www.skypoker.com/secure/poker/sky_lobby?action=show_static&page=poker_community_forums&plckForumPage=ForumDiscussion&plckDiscussionId=Cat%3ae0fe4c56-4826-4c14-a350-298f784f4e3dForum%3a902ab96e-b209-4e97-96a2-98a6b9a864a8Discussion%3ae60b813e-ea59-4295-afcc-daca65f3f22a

Cheers,

G