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** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** FORMAL SELECTIONS THREAD FOR JACKPOT ATTEMPT ON THURSDAY 11TH MAY 2017 AT CH

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Comments

  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Hi guys.

    I think I have managed to incorporate every NAP selection received so far. Non runners have given me a bit more flexibility.

    OK, here is the final spreadsheet:
    JACKPOT THURSDAY 11/05/17 CHESTER




    TIME PERM ONE PERM TWO PERM THREE
    LEG ONE


    1.50PM 1m2f LD FR 01 - BERKSHIRE 15/2 06 – KHAIRAAT 6/5 06 – KHAIRAAT 6/5
    1.50PM 1m2f LD FR 06 – KHAIRAAT 5/4
    		07 – BROROCCO 7/2
    1.50PM 1m2f LD FR 07 – BROROCCO 3/1

    LEG TWO


    2.25PM 1m2f LD FR 01 – DEAUVILLE 15/8 01 – DEAUVILLE 15/8 01 – DEAUVILLE 15/8
    2.25PM 1m2f LD FR 04 – POET'S WORD 3/1 02 – FOLKSWOOD 11/2 02 – FOLKSWOOD 11/2
    2.25PM 1m2f LD FR
    		05 - R ARTILLERY 9/2 04 – POET'S WORD 3/1
    LEG THREE


    3.00PM 7f LD FR 04 – MUTAWATHEB 5/1 04 – MUTAWATHEB 5/1 04 – MUTAWATHEB 5/1
    3.00PM 7f LD FR 10 – AREEN HEART 5/1 10 – AREEN HEART 5/1 02 – VIA EGNATIA 9/2
    3.00PM 7f LD FR 02 – VIA EGNATIA 9/2 07 – REBEL DE LOPE 11/1 06 – SHARP DEFENSE 9/1
    LEG FOUR


    3.35PM 1m4f LD FR 05 – TAMLEEK 3/1 05 – TAMLEEK 3/1 05 – TAMLEEK 3/1
    3.35PM 1m4f LD FR 02 – CUNCO 11/2 07 – VENICE BEACH 11/4 07 – VENICE BEACH 11/4
    3.35PM 1m4f LD FR
    		08 – WINGS OF EAGLES 17/2
    3.35PM 1m4f LD FR
    		06 – THE ANVIL 7/1
    LEG FIVE


    4.05PM 5f LD FR 01 – DAHIK 4/6 01 – DAHIK 4/6 01 – DAHIK 4/6
    4.05PM 5f LD FR 02 – DRAGONS TAIL 4/1 02 – DRAGONS TAIL 4/1
    4.05PM 5f LD FR
    		09 – AUNTIE PAM 7/1
    LEG SIX


    4.35PM 6f LD FR 12 – ZAMJAR 10/3 12 – ZAMJAR 10/3 12 – ZAMJAR 10/3
    4.35PM 6f LD FR 05 – SAYESSE 13/2 05 – SAYESSE 13/2 05 – SAYESSE 13/2
    4.35PM 6f LD FR 10 – FULL INTENTION 5/1 06 – POET'S SOCIETY 11/2 10 – FULL INTENTION 5/1
    4.35PM 6f LD FR

    		02 – MUNRO 9/1
    4.35PM 6f LD FR

    		11 – AWESOME ALLAN 12/1
    4.35PM 6f LD FR

    		09 – KREB'S CYCLE 18/1
    4.35PM 6f LD FR

    		15 – THE AMBER FORT 12/1
    NO OF LINES 3*2*3*2*2*3 – 216 1*3*3*4*3*3 = 324 2*3*3*2*1*7 = 252
    PERM COST 216 LINES AT 50P = £108 243 LINES AT 50P = £162 216 LINES AT 50P = £126




    TOTAL COST £396.00

     

    PERM ONE RECEIPT: 
    My Summary
    DateDescriptionSelectionAmount
    DateBet RefW/P/S StakeBet TypeEvent / MarketSelectionHcpPriceResultStatusTotal StakeReturn
    11/05/17 1:46:27 PM 2847554/3112705 Jackpot - Pick 613:501 - Berkshire0 OpenO£108.00£0.00
        Jackpot6 - Khairaat0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Brorocco0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        


    		Jackpot4 - Poet's Word0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Via Egnatia0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Areen Heart0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Cunco0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Dragons Tail0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Full Intention0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open
    PERM TWO RECEIPT:
    11/05/17 1:32:43 PM 2847435/3112585 Jackpot - Pick 613:506 - Khairaat0 OpenO£162.00£0.00
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Folkswood0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Royal Artillery0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Rebel De Lope0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Areen Heart0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - The Anvil0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Venice Beach0 Open   
        Jackpot8 - Wings Of Eagles0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Dragons Tail0 Open   
        Jackpot9 - Auntie Pam0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - Poet's Society0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open
    PERM THREE RECEIPT:
    11/05/17 1:42:14 PM 2847509/3112659 Jackpot - Pick 613:506 - Khairaat0 OpenO£126.00£0.00
        Jackpot7 - Brorocco0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Folkswood0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Poet's Word0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Via Egnatia0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - Sharp Defence0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Venice Beach0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Munro0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot9 - Kreb's Cycle0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Full Intention0 Open   
        Jackpot11 - Awesome Allan0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open   
        Jackpot15 - The Amber Fort0 Open
    The advantage of doing three perms like this is that potentially only one of the three bankers need to win, and if more than one wins we have the potential to get it for the full £1 (something Micky was keen on)

    The disadvantage is that we could be unlucky and have all the selections come in, but not on the same line. Of course an outsider could come in that busts all perms, but that's a risk we are always going to have.

    Doing it this way also allows us "reasonable" coverage in the more competitive legs.

    When I refer to selections A,B,C,D,E,F etc in the various legs, A is our first choice, B the second, C the third and so on for the respective races. We will still use remover's data and naps selections to determine these selections.

    What do you think? The total stake for a perm like this would be £324.00 (3 * £108) which is about the amount that I would like us to invest.

    It makes the process a bit more complex regarding bet placement, but I'm happy to give it a go.

    Those in agreement, say Aye, we still have a lot of decisions to make, like all the A's, B's, C's, D's E's and F's. And also the choices between Berkshire and Mistirock and Last Page and Auntie Pam. regarding the Berkshire/Mistirock and Last Page/Auntie Pam dilemmas, my preference is to go with the one's best backed, in each case, but I realise that all may not agree. I am aware that a couple of people have already NAP'd Berkshire, so maybe weill go with that over Mistirock regardless of market movement. It has also ran well when fresh before.

    I have adopted a similar strategy to this for placepot perms in the past.

    Anyhow, in principle is this strategy OK? Are we happy to proceed on this premise?

    This seems the best way to include most opinions and still have "reasonable" coverage. Of course there is still the same danger of an outsider busting all perms, but that is a risk we will always have to take.

    Please let me know your thoughts.

    I am probably going to pull an "all nighter" now, so I can reply to your posts as and when.

    Cheers,

    Baldrick. :=)

    P.S. Please note that the "named selections" in the spreadsheet above are not set in stone and may change based on non-runners and market movers.

    P.P.S It is a lot for me to do at the last minute, so my main focus will be getting the bets on, in time whilst getting the latest market mover info for the first race. I will then post the bet receipts on the thread ASAP. It will be just before the off and I will then summarise the perms in clearer fashion ASAP. (hopefully we are still in). You'll need to look pretty much bang on 1.50pm for the finalised runners, although I will post the probable perms at about 1.40pm, which is what it will be unless there is some major drifting etc in the market at the very last minute.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Please cast your vote.

    Yes or No to going for it with this approach?
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    We may also need to consider Royal Artillery (9/2) in the 2nd leg, but we'll see what comes out of the removals and NAP's selections. I would really like to have POET'S WORLD in two of the perms, but that means leaving either FOLKSWOOD or ROYAL ARTILLERY out completely.
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  • wynne1938wynne1938
    edited May 2017
    Aye
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Please note, that unless any subsequent objections are posted by 10AM, we will go for it as discussed.

    This will be the formal thread for today's selections. The opening post spreadsheet will be updated when the final horses are decided, the bet receipts will also be displayed on the opening post.

    Please note that the first race is at 1.50PM and is live on ITV4.

    Selections will be finalised and available to view on the opening post just before the off of the first race. I won't post the normal removers spreadsheet on this occasion as it could cause confusion as we are doing three perms.

    GL us!
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    I dont have a vote, so will leave it you.

    A bit more info on the proposed bankers...


    Out of 14 tracked newspaper tipsters, 11 went for DAHIK, 2 for Last Page (NR) and 1 for Dragons Tail.

    It has 2 NAPs

    8 went for KAIRHAAT, 4 for Brorocco, 1 for Berkshire and 1 for Senockian Star

    It has one NAP

    6 went for DEAUVILLE, 3 for Royal Artillery, 3 for Poet's Word*, 1 for Folkswood, 1 for Gabrial

    None of them Napped it.

    *edit - incorrectly had Poet's Word as a NR, the site I look at automatically picks up odds from sites so it looked like a NR as they had misplaced the apostrophe. I had a similar issue with Poet's Society which I have backed so went back and checked.

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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** FORMAL SELECTIONS THREAD FOR JACKPOT ATTEMPT ON THURSDAY 11TH MAY 2017 AT CHESTER RACECOURSE. FIRST RACE LIVE ON ITV4 AT 1.50PM. GL US!:
    I dont have a vote, so will leave it you. A bit more info on the proposed bankers... Out of 14 tracked newspaper tipsters, 11 went for DAHIK, 2 for Last Page (NR) and 1 for Dragons Tail. It has 2 NAPs 8 went for KAIRHAAT, 4 for Brorocco, 1 for Berkshire and 1 for Senockian Star It has one NAP 6 went for DEAUVILLE, 3 for Royal Artillery, 3 for Poets Word (NR), 1 for Folkswood, 1 for Gabrial None of them Napped it.
    Posted by Phantom66
    Thx Phantom
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  • DollieDollie
    edited May 2017
    As I don't know the first thing about horses, I will trust the judgement of the experts, of which we seem to have a few. If they say go for it then I will back their judgement.  Good luck!
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    good luck all
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Hi all, can all interested parties please take a look at the potential perms on the opening post. I would welcome any early thoughts. I have tried to incorporate everyone's selections.

    Cheers,

    G
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    I am interested but not a paid up member. Just moved these thoughts from the wrong thread...

    You seem to have good coverage there Graham.

    The market do not seem as worried about Dahik as Vaigret or I though. If we had kept quiet I would think it would be an undisputed banker?

    Decisions decisions.

    Actually on reflection I am a bit worried about Leg 4.

    Would be good to see The Anvil and Count Octave in there but that might mean a change of strategy?

    I'll shut up now, too many cooks and all that and I would be devasted if you lost by listening to me when I am not in the syndicate. 

    Final say is yours and you need to listen to the more seasoned backers who are in the syndicate not me.

    Hopefully noone agrees with me and that makes your job easier.
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  • jordz16jordz16
    edited May 2017
    I have the same worries as Phantom, but i also fullt understand how tough this is to work out at maximum EV so im more than happy to go with what you have put forward
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    OK, just had a bit of a nightmare, restarted laptop and it is configuring windows for half hour now.

    I have commandeered Gary's laptop.

    Will try and add The Anvil somehow.

    G
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    I think this is first and last time we try please all. we could potentially end up with egg on our face as changing your well thought out plan. ending up with 6 winners in 3 diff perms. 
    or we could and up winning 
    think I'm getting splinters by sitting in fence
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited May 2017


    Fully behind any selections/decisions made today. 

    If Mattbates was the jockey on our selections, we would romp it ;)

    Sorry for no input/assistance as having a nightmare week at work with hacked PC's...FML.
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    OK, here is the receipt for perm two. I have added "The Anvil" to leg four increasing the cost of this perm to £162.00:

    My Summary
    DateDescriptionSelectionAmount
    DateBet RefW/P/S StakeBet TypeEvent / MarketSelectionHcpPriceResultStatusTotal StakeReturn
    11/05/17 1:32:43 PM 2847435/3112585 Jackpot - Pick 613:506 - Khairaat0 OpenO£162.00£0.00
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Folkswood0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Royal Artillery0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Rebel De Lope0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Areen Heart0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - The Anvil0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Venice Beach0 Open   
        Jackpot8 - Wings Of Eagles0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Dragons Tail0 Open   
        Jackpot9 - Auntie Pam0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - Poet's Society0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    I have added The Amber Fort in leg six of perm 3, making the cost of perm 3 now £126.00

    Receipt:


    My Summary
    DateDescriptionSelectionAmount
    DateBet RefW/P/S StakeBet TypeEvent / MarketSelectionHcpPriceResultStatusTotal StakeReturn
    11/05/17 1:42:14 PM 2847509/3112659 Jackpot - Pick 613:506 - Khairaat0 OpenO£126.00£0.00
        Jackpot7 - Brorocco0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Folkswood0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Poet's Word0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Via Egnatia0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot6 - Sharp Defence0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Venice Beach0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Munro0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot9 - Kreb's Cycle0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Full Intention0 Open   
        Jackpot11 - Awesome Allan0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open   
        Jackpot15 - The Amber Fort0 Open
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Receipt for perm one, as it stands at £108

    My Summary
    DateDescriptionSelectionAmount
    DateBet RefW/P/S StakeBet TypeEvent / MarketSelectionHcpPriceResultStatusTotal StakeReturn
    11/05/17 1:46:27 PM 2847554/3112705 Jackpot - Pick 613:501 - Berkshire0 OpenO£108.00£0.00
        Jackpot6 - Khairaat0 Open   
        Jackpot7 - Brorocco0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Deauville0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Poet's Word0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Via Egnatia0 Open   
        Jackpot4 - Mutawatheb0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Areen Heart0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Cunco0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Tamleek0 Open   
        Jackpot1 - Dahik0 Open   
        Jackpot2 - Dragons Tail0 Open   
        Jackpot5 - Sayesse0 Open   
        Jackpot10 - Full Intention0 Open   
        Jackpot12 - Zamjar0 Open
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    Sorry losing my laptop threw me so I can't update the opening post spreadheets.

    They are as they stand but The Anvil has been added to leg4 in perm 2 and The Amber Fort has been added to Leg6 of perm 3.

    So the costs are:

    PERM 1: £108
    PERM 2: £162
    PERM 3: £126

    TOTAL COST: £396
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    thanks mate must of been grief when laptop wants to get kind of there own

    great start anyways☺
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** FORMAL SELECTIONS THREAD FOR JACKPOT ATTEMPT ON THURSDAY 11TH MAY 2017 AT CHESTER RACECOURSE. FIRST RACE LIVE ON ITV4 AT 1.50PM. GL US!:
    thanks mate must of been grief when laptop wants to get kind of there own great start anyways☺
    Posted by MICKYBLUE

    Thx very well done Micky, that was your banker.

    My laptop has come back.

    As I said earlier, I have added a couple of horses, one in the forth leg based on Phantom's/Jordz's comments and one that I was always worried about in the sixth.

    So the cost was slightly higher but still less than £400 total. £396 to be precise

    Now I have my laptop, I will update the opening post with the updated spreadsheets, I will also re-post the receipts in a more readable way.

    Cheers,

    G


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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    2 out of 2 

    I'm just hoping 1 of our outsiders come in later on
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  • MonkeyGLBMonkeyGLB
    edited May 2017
    Am I right in thinking we are 2 for 2 ..... I am getting not work done this afternoon !!!

    Monkey
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  • BrrrrrrrBrrrrrrr
    edited May 2017
    Following with interest - best of luck today!!
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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017
    In Response to Re: ** JACKPOT SYNDICATE ** FORMAL SELECTIONS THREAD FOR JACKPOT ATTEMPT ON THURSDAY 11TH MAY 2017 AT CHESTER RACECOURSE. FIRST RACE LIVE ON ITV4 AT 1.50PM. GL US!:
    Following with interest - best of luck today!!
    Posted by Brrrrrrr
    Thanks Brrrrr.

    The good news is that we are still in all three perms, the bad news, as Micky alludes to is that there are 8,380.4 UNITS still in.

    So we'll see what happens from here. It's a case of careful what you wish for now.

    Cheers,

    G

    P.S. Well done Vaigret on your Banker choice.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    3 from 3 and a great race there.

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  • StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited May 2017

    Still going in all three perms.

    Hate to leave it, but I have to go on the school run.

    Micky, you know what's going on, can you keep people updated?

    Cheers,

    G

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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2017
    of course on phone at work so might get called but will update if possible
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  • Phantom66Phantom66
    edited May 2017
    1625 units going into leg 4 and you have 1.5 of them
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  • SnufferSnuffer
    edited May 2017
    1625.12 units left going into leg 4
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