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What I am really trying to say is you need to work out which of the favs are false which is more like our removals process. I will try and look what I think are the weak favs for tomorrow and also A, b,C's.
Of course there is always the prob then that the "weak" fav then goes out in the betting late on and the new fav gets placed which is why your having fav in some races is good on one hand and not so helpful, ie fav gets placed and reduces payot , on the other.
Yes I agree, correctly identifying a weak favourite that finishes out of the frame can be very useful indeed equity wise, so would be interested in your thoughts on what you consider the weak favourites are.
The Placepot can be a very frustrating bet, as when you do big perms, even if you cash, you often get less back than you staked, but IF things do fall favourably it can pay handsomely. We've all seen that with Wynne.
Obviously if these favourites ARE out the frame, it's a double positive because we don't have them in our perm, when most others do, but if they DO place equally it is a double negative, so one could argue that it is one of the most important aspects of the bet. The success with which we can correctly eliminate favourites will have a significant impact upon results, but I am sure you know that.
The other thing that really makes a Placepot dividend BIG is if all the runners to the fore of the market are unplaced. Now this happens once in a blue moon, although slightly more often in 7 runner fields, so having the occasional outsider gives you the opportunity at least for it to happen. When Wynne won the huge one, he had an outsider in a 7 runner races as one of his selections, and the hot favourite ended up being third.
Generally speaking the bigger priced horses are under represented in the pool, but that "value" is only realised if they place and the fancied runners are out the frame.
One result like that can make up for a lot of near misses, but one has to be patient and invariably endure some tough and frustrating results before that happens. (or hopefully happens anyway :=))
Win or lose, I quite enjoy following the equity through, and assessing the pools to look for statistical value. I've spotted a few things like you could have two horses that are the same odds, one finished 6th in it's last race the other one won. In MOST cases the horse with a 1 in it's most recent form line is much more over subscribed despite, according to the odds, having the same chance.
Little things like this can give you an edge too. You have to give yourself a chance whilst also going slightly away from the "norm".
Thanks again for your help.
G
However, in this context, your comments could be very helpful.
Cheers,
G
Cheers,
G
2.00
a= 1 LE CELEBS VILLE - 9-4 is C/ D winner and looks like stablemate Conquress put in to try and destroy chances of Miss Sheridan {front runner) and Make on Madam 7f horse.
b= TRILLIANT - 7-1
C- HIDDEN CHARMS- 6-1 BOTH COULD BENEFIT FROM THE STRONG PACE AS BEEN DROPPED BACK IN DISTANCE.
2.30
A = 2- GREEN FORTUNE - 2-1 ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS IN FIELD AND THE OTHER IS TEMPERAMENTAL AND PENALY BURDENED HEAVILY. DRAWN HIGH
B= 10 -THE RIGHT CHOICE 7-1- NO REASON WHY HE SHOULDNT BEAT RED FORCE ONE AGAIN
C= 6- MOTABASSIM 33-1- ONE OF SHEIK HAMDOUN 'S 3 IN HERE AND TRAINER HAD SIMILAR WINNER DAY OR SO AGO, ALSO DRAWN HIGH HAVING SAID THET TAKE YOUR PICK OUT OF ANY OF 3 OF SHEIKS HORSES IN THIS AND HOPE YOU GET RIGHT ONE.
3.00
nOW WHICH OF THESE HORSES HAS BEEN SPECIALLY LAID OUT FOR NURSERY BY KEEPING THEIR LIGHT UNDER A BUSHEL. ONE RACE I WOULD LEAVE OUT THE FAVOURITE. OR CHOSE FAVOURITE WHICH COULD BE ANYONES GUESS..
A= 1- JUNE DOG 13-2 FAV -ONE OF ONLY TWO DISTANCE WINNERS AND I DONT LIKE THE OTHER TOO MANY RUNS TO BE AHEAD OF HANDICAPPER. tHIS ONE HIGHLY TRIED AT rOYAL ASCOT LAST TIME OVER 5F!!!!! WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A WINNER AT 6F COULD HAVE BEEN FOUND A 6f RACE AT THE ROYAL MEETING DRAWN HIGH
B= 6 JIM ROCKFORD 6-1
C- 5 NEW EMPIRE 7-1-BOTH LOOK LIKE THIS WHAT THEY WAITING FOR. AND BOTH DRAWN HIGH
gOOD FUN THOUGH
Can I be a real pain, would it be possible just to add the current odds of your selections, just so I can see at a glance the "dynamic", also if you recommend to leave a favourite or two out, can you provide their odds?
It will just enable me, at a glance, to get an idea of the situation and also, tomorrow, I can see if there has been support overnight or if it has drifted.
Cheers,
G
HERE GOES WITH LAST 3 RACES
3.30
A - 4 FALCONS VISION 15-8
B- 3 FABELLA BELLE 12-1
C- 6 POINT HOPE 5-2
NO SURPRISES THERE
4.00
A- 9- MANNERS PLEASE 11-2 -GREAT CHANCE IF FIT FOR DEBUT THIS SEASON
B- 5 -CAPTAIN REVALATION 13-2 - GOOD TRAINER JOCKEY COMB HERE AND JUST HAVE A FEELING, BEEN DROPPING IN WEIGHTS
C- 10 MAGIC MOMENTS 4-1 -BOTTOM OF WEIGHTS AND WINNER TWO RACES AGO
AGAINST FAV JAY KAY 7-2
4.30
AGAINST FAV AGAIN -JACK FLASH 2-1
A= 1 MERRY BANTER - 11-4 -HIGHLY TRIED LAST TIME AFTER GOOD SECOND
B- 6 FOXCATCHER 7-1 -STOPPED TWICE IN RUN LAST TIME
C- 3 ROCK ON AMERICA 8-1-
HOPE THESE HELP
Yes, was a bit cheeky of me to ask for the prices too, but does help a lot.
Lets see how we go tomorrow.
Thanks again,
G
Much appreciated, and best of luck yourself!
G
Virtual 15p lines, actual 10p lines.
Thanks Wynne and Vaigret for your input.
Cheers,
G
AFTER LEG3:
G
edit ; just seen it didnt
School run soon, so next update will be the last until it's over.
G
Not a great equity result in LEG3.
Unfortunately June Dog just got ran out of it in 4th.
Still in though.
So £20.10 returned.
OP updated.
Reasonably competitive field and a severe draw bias favouring low drawn runners over 5F and 7.5F.
It's an evening meeting, so we'll see how it goes. Feel free to post A,B and C selections if you wish, although I know it's a lot of work, so no obligation.
Cheers,
G
I don't normally have time to study much form, but I have a bit of free time tomorrow, so hopefully I will be able to have a good look myself too.
So I will add my thoughts to those that you and others post.
When I do have the time, I like to ignore all the racing press comments and just look at the video form myself. This way, I am not following the press's choices, and just make my own conclusions which means possibly going against the grain a little bit, which isn't a bad idea with Placepot bets.
If you are interested in my conclusions, I will list them here, but it won't be until late afternoon though.
We'll see how it goes anyway. Win or lose, It'll hopefully be fun trying. :=)
Cheers,
G
This is what we're after:
They may change though.