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Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July

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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    WELL DONE SNUFFER AND MK GUNNER
    Posted by vaigret
    Cheers V, backed it at 13/2 this morning but rule 4 took a whopping 55p in a pound so 5/2 a fair price I guess.

    EDIT: paid me out nearer 9/2 so can't complain.
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    MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited July 2017



    3.35: TIME TRAIL
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    jordz16jordz16
    edited July 2017
    3.35: DECLARATIONOFLOVE
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    unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July : Cheers V, backed it at 13/2 this morning but rule 4 took a whopping 55p in a pound so 5/2 a fair price I guess. EDIT: paid me out nearer 9/2 so can't complain.
    Posted by Snuffer

    perhaps G can help with this, I also backed it at 15-2 and got paid out at about 5.25 to one cant understand how I got better pay out than you. 
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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    Might be wrong with my calculations, I had it at £5 e/w and it returned £38.45 after the rule 4. (1/4 odds on e/w). Also well done you as well!
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    unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    Might be wrong with my calculations, I had it at £5 e/w and it returned £38.45 after the rule 4. (1/4 odds on e/w).
    Posted by Snuffer

    ok
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    MISTY4MEMISTY4ME
    edited July 2017

    3.35:  CORINTHIA KNIGHT
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    zadoczadoc
    edited July 2017

    LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROLLOVER
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    MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited July 2017
    SYNDICATE NAP SELECTIONS AND RESULTS FOR SUNDAY  23RD JULY 2017 
    AT REDCAR: 


    1) JORDZ16:

    3.30: PRINCE OF CLAPPERS - LOST 

    2) MAXALLY:

    3.00: THE DUKKERER - LOST

    3) MICKYBLUE:



    4) MISTY4ME:



    5) MKGUNNER:

    4.00: MYSTERIAL - LOST
    6) PHANTOM66:

    2.30: LETHAL LADY - LOST

    7) RABDENIRO:

    4.30:  MUSCIKA - 2ND

    8) SNUFFER:

    4.00: ATTAIN - LOST

    9) STAYORGO:

    3.30: ROYS DREAM - LOST

    10) VAIGRET:

    3.00: SOOQAAN - LOST

    11) WYNNE1938:

    2.30: MOLLY MAYHEM - LOST

    12) ZADOC:

    3.00:  MR SUNDOWNER - WON (5/1)

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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    Might be wrong with my calculations, I had it at £5 e/w and it returned £38.45 after the rule 4. (1/4 odds on e/w). Also well done you as well!
    Posted by Snuffer

    Hi Snuffer/Vaigret.

    Rule 4 often causes confusion as unlike in a dead heat, the rule 4 is only applied to winnings not stake.

    Also when there are multiple non runners, depending on when your bet is placed, only some of the rule 4 may be applicable. It looks as if Snuffer's bet was after some withdrawals but before others, as despite saying the rule 4 was 55p in the pound the bet has been settled with a rule 4 of just 30p in the pound.

    The calculation is made as follows:

    WIN PART = STAKE * ((1 + ODDS) - (ODDS * R4))

    PLACE PART =  STAKE * ((1 + (ODDS/4)) - (ODDS/4 * R4))

    FOR SNUFFER £5 E/W AT 13/2 AND 1/4 ODDS WITH 30P RULE 4 DEDUCTION THIS IS CALCULATED AS FOLLOWS:

    WIN PART = £5 * ((1 + 6.5) - (6.5 * 0.3)) = £5 * (7.5 - 1.95) = £27.75

    PLACE PART: £5 * ((1 + (6.5/4)) - (6.5 / 4 * 0.3)) =  £5 * (2.625 - 0.4875) = £10.6875

    TOTAL RETURN = £27.75 + £10.6875 = £38.4375 rounded up to £38.44 (So definitely settled as 30p rule 4 despite what it may say)

    I had to do all these manually to pass my bookmaking exams (one needs to be careful with the brackets), but obviously nowadays you'd just use an online odds calculator.

    Anyhow, I have no doubt that Snuffer's bet was settled at 30p in the pound based on the time of bet placement being before some withdrawals but after others.

    Cheers,

    G
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    Following on from this I can see that MOUNT LOGAN was withdrawn late, well after Snuffers bet and carried a 25p in the pound deduction. So I am guessing that there was also one other withdrawal after Snuffer's bet placement (Toulson I'm guessing), that carried a 5p in the pound deduction. Either this or "Sky's" odds for MOUNT LOGAN warranted 30p.

    Fortunately for Phantom, a new market was formed and no rule 4 needs to be applied to bets at SP. :=)

    Congrats on a good winner.

    Cheers,

    G

    P.S. Snuffer, somewhere on your bet receipt there should be something detailing the various rule 4's, odds and times, so you "SHOULD" be able to see why 30p in the pound was applied.
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    unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    Following on from this I can see that MOUNT LOGAN was withdrawn late, well after Snuffers bet and carried a 25p in the pound deduction. So I am guessing that there was also one other withdrawal after Snuffer's bet placement (Toulson I'm guessing), that carried a 5p in the pound deduction. Either this or "Sky's" odds for MOUNT LOGAN wararnted 30p. Fortunately for Phantom, a new market was formed and no rule 4 needs to be applied to bets at SP. :=) Congrats on a good winner. Cheers, G P.S. Snuffer, somewhere on your bet receipt there should be something detailing the various rule 4's, odds and times, so you "SHOULD" be able to see why 30p in the pound was applied.
    Posted by StayOrGo
    thanks Graham
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    V, if you tell me your bet and the returns, I can tell you how much rule 4 was used for your bet.

    Would need to know, stake, place terms, odds and return.

    Just if you want.

    Cheers,

    G
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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July : Hi Snuffer/Vaigret. Rule 4 often causes confusion as unlike in a dead heat, the rule 4 is only applied to winnings not stake. Also when there are multiple non runners, depending on when your bet is placed, only some of the rule 4 may be applicable. It looks as if Snuffer's bet was after some withdrawals but before others, as despite saying the rule 4 was 55p in the pound the bet has been settled with a rule 4 of just 30p in the pound. The calculation is made as follows: WIN PART = STAKE * ((1 + ODDS) - (ODDS * R4)) PLACE PART =  STAKE * ((1 + (ODDS/4)) - (ODDS/4 * R4)) FOR SNUFFER AT 13/2 AND 1/4ODDS WITH 30P RULE 4 DEDUCTION THIS IS CALCULATED AS FOLLOWS: WIN PART = £5 * ((1+6.5) - (6.5 * 0.3)) = £5 * (7.5 - 1.95) = £27.75 PLACE PART : £5 * ((1+(6.5/4)) - (6.5/4*0.3)) = £10.6875 TOTAL REURN = £27.75 + £10.6875 = £38.4375 rounded up to £38.44 (So definately settled as 30p rule 4 despite what it may say) I had to do all these manually to pass my bookmaking exams (one needs to be careful with the brackets), but obviously nowadays you'd just use an online odds calculator. Anyhow, I have no doublt that Snuffer's bet was settled at 30p in the pound based on the time of bet placement being before some withdrawals but after others. Cheers, G
    Posted by StayOrGo
    Thanks for the breakdown of how this works G, cheers.
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    You are welcome Snuffer.

    Looking at tomorrow's cards, it will almost certainly be at REDCAR.

    There is a nice odds-on shot in the first race, and the 2nd is not too competitive, but after that, very tough indeed, so if REDCAR it will be a NO-GO.

    On the remote chance that it is either STRATFORD or NEWTON ABBOT, then we would go for it, but I am 99% sure it will be REDCAR.

    Cheers,

    G
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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    Following on from this I can see that MOUNT LOGAN was withdrawn late, well after Snuffers bet and carried a 25p in the pound deduction. So I am guessing that there was also one other withdrawal after Snuffer's bet placement (Toulson I'm guessing), that carried a 5p in the pound deduction. Either this or "Sky's" odds for MOUNT LOGAN warranted 30p. Fortunately for Phantom, a new market was formed and no rule 4 needs to be applied to bets at SP. :=) Congrats on a good winner. Cheers, G P.S. Snuffer, somewhere on your bet receipt there should be something detailing the various rule 4's, odds and times, so you "SHOULD" be able to see why 30p in the pound was applied.
    Posted by StayOrGo
    Checked my bet receipt and they only incurred a 30p rule deduction but initially it showed 55p so I believe that my initial confusing rose from that. 

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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July:
    In Response to Re: Jackpot syndicate NAPs table for July : Checked my bet receipt and they only incurred a 30p rule deduction but initially it showed 55p so I believe that my initial confusing rose from that. 
    Posted by Snuffer
    That makes sense, the 55p deduction was probably for bets placed very early, prior to SPARK PLUG's withdrawal, and I am guessing your bet was placed after SPARK PLUG was known to be a NR.

    Still at least this may have cleared up some confusion over rule 4 deductions.

    BUT DO WE ALL REALLY UNDERSTAND IT?

    So here's a test for who ever wants to take on the challenge:

    You have £10 E/W in the Derby where there are 18 runners. (Normal Place terms apply)

    Your horse amazingly triple dead heats for 1st at 16/1, but there is a rule 4 deduction of 20p in the pound.

    How much do you get back? Kudos to the first one back with the right answer and show's their working.

    HINT, RULE 4 only applies to winnings, dead heat rules apply to stake as well.

    Cheers,

    G

    P.S. You must show your "working" so that I know it hasn't been done via an odds calculator. 
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    unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2017
    Hi Graham 

    Im ok with what I got and as for the above If I am ever in that position I'll ask an expert I know. His poker nick has something to do with deciding whether to leave !!!!

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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    My first born has an A* in maths, he would probably answer that in nano second but me.......nah... G, this too big for me!




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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    Hi Snuffer, Yes if your son has an A* he'd do this easily for sure, although I am sure many of you could do this too, albeit with a bit of effort.

    Useful hints for anyone attempting it:

    Do the place part first on it's own with the rule 4.

    Then for the win part, apply the rule 4 as if it won outright, and then adjust for the triple dead heat after.

    Only a bit of fun for anyone wanting to give it a try. :=)

    Cheers,

    G


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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    OK here's the answer broken down if you are interested.

    Firstly the place part:

    The Derby is not a handicap so STANDARD place terms are 1/5th of the odds.

    So the place odds are 16/5 = £42 back for our tenner, minus the rule 4.

    16 / 5 = 3.2 to 1 as a decimal or 4.2 * stake whichever you find easier.

    The rule four is 20% of 3.2 * stake (£10) = £6.40, so taking this off the £42 leaves us £35.60 for the place.

    The win part would normally = £170 back for our tenner, if it won outright with no rule 4.

    But we have to take off the rule 4 of  20% = (16*0.2*£10) = £32 rule 4. So taking the rule 4 of off the £170 leaves £138

    As it was a triple dead heat the win return needs to be divided by 3 so £138 / 3 = £46. If it was just a normal dead heat you would divide by 2 and not 3.

    So you get £46 for the win and £35.60 for the place totalling £81.60.

    I hope this helps if you are interested in this type of thing. (Who knows, It could be good for your poker, to flex the arithmetic muscles) :=)

    Next time you're all in with a flush draw and overs against a pocket pair, you'll know who's favourite to win and good arithmetic skills could help you to know what pot odds and/or implied odds, you need to make certain calls.

    Cheers,

    G
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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    Pretty amazing Placepot dividend at Newbury today, 5 favourites placed and then a 9/2 winner in a 4 runner field in the last, paid over a grand to a £1 stake.

    The 9/2 shot in the last (Soul Silver), was only covered by 2.67% which is what made the dividend.

    It's RP odds were 12/1 in a six runner field, but the two non runners meant winner only for Placepot purposes and all the money on the NR's went on the SP favourite, so bit gutting for those with Sante or Trilliant in their perms.

    But very nice for the 122.9 units that were on Soul Silver. :=)

    Opps, just realised, I've probably messed up MAX's top post procedure, with all these posts, sorry.



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    StayOrGoStayOrGo
    edited July 2017
    Just to confirm that it is REDCAR today and as such a NO-GO.

    Cheers,

    G
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    SnufferSnuffer
    edited July 2017
    4.00: ATTAIN
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    unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2017
    3.00: SOOQAAN
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    rabdenirorabdeniro
    edited July 2017
      16.30  MUSCIKA
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    mkgunnermkgunner
    edited July 2017
    4.00: MYSTERIAL
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    zadoczadoc
    edited July 2017

    3.00:  MR SUNDOWNER
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    Phantom66Phantom66
    edited July 2017
    Weekly table with one day to go Vaigret still ahead. WP Snuffer and MKG yesterday. JACKPOT SYNDICATE WEEKLY NAPS TABLE 22/07/2017 WEEK11 17/09/17 TO 23/07/2017                 POS SKY USERID SEL WINS PLACES UNPLACED PROFIT 21/07 PROFIT TODAY                 1st VAIGRET 8 2 1 5 £11.00 £10.00 2nd MAXALLY 8 2 2 4 £8.00 £7.00 3rd MKGUNNER 4 2 0 2 £2.50 £5.00 4th STAYORGO 8 3 2 3 £4.13 £3.13 5th RABDENIRO 8 3 2 3 £4.00 £3.00 6th SNUFFER 8 3 0 5 £0.13 £2.63 7th PHANTOM66 4 1 0 3 £2.50 £1.50 8th MISTY4ME 6 2 0 4 £1.75 £0.75 9th MICKYBLUE 5 2 0 3 £0.73 -£0.27 10th WYNNE1938 8 3 2 3 £0.46 -£0.54 11th JORDZ16 7 1 2 4 -£3.37 -£4.37 12th ZADOC 8 1 1 6 -£4.00 -£5.00
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    Phantom66Phantom66
    edited July 2017
    2.30: LETHAL LADY
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