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Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number

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  • SNOWY37SNOWY37
    edited May 2010
    May I point something out..

    A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker..

    Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker.

    Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker..
    Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time.

    Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards..
    Pocket pair is favourite 52.27%

    In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time.

    Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited May 2010
    The pub opened 5 and half hours ago chaps.... Get yer coats
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  • aussie09aussie09
    edited May 2010



    thanks snowy

    the original observation was that if you are expecting that luck will surely come your way because you deserve it due to a run of a bad luck then you are misguided...it isnt goiung to happen.

    if you talk variance in terms of percentage rather than number you will be mislead into thinking this

    and maxally... i was laughing.. funny

    regards
    aussie09




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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    May I point something out.. A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker.. Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker. Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time. Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27% In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time. Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
    Posted by SNOWY37
    but this is never about a 50 50, it's about variance. the whole coin flipping thing is just an easier way to understand variance. It's all about variance evening out... or not. So it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations. I think this is what mere novice and aussie were trying to explain to me anyway... hope ive finally grapsed it at least!

    Anyway... if anyone wants to try and imagine a 10th dimension then maybe you will find this video interesting:

    http://www.tenthdimension.com/medialinks.php
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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    May I point something out.. A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker.. Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker. Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time. Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27% In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time. Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
    Posted by SNOWY37
    What about the probability of getting the cards dealt in the first place etc...? In terms of variance and chance in poker, it is not just limited to when you are all in, what about situations such as coolers?
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    Is it possible for you to flip a coin an infinite number of times and it always be heads? This is all difficult to comprehend :( i guess the probability of something happening does not mean that it definately will... i think this is where i am getting confused. Just dont understand how expectation can differ from real world outcome :S ok i give up now lol... im doing my head in, and probably everyone else who reads this.
    Posted by BlackFish3
    Yes but it's unlikely!

    Here's a table developing on aussie09's point about the odds of exactly equal number of heads and tails for an increasing even number of tosses.
    Number of heads Number of tosses Even sequences Total sequences Probability
    1 2 2 4 0.5
    2 4 6 16 0.38
    3 6 20 64 0.31
    4 8 70 256 0.27
    5 10 252 1024 0.25
    6 12 924 4096 0.23
    7 14 3432 16384 0.21
    8 16 12870 65536 0.2
    9 18 48620 262144 0.19
    10 20 184756 1048576 0.18
    11 22 705432 4194304 0.17
    As you can see, the probability of there being exactly equal number of heads and tails decreases as the number of tosses increases.
    I'm sure that aussie09 will correct me if I've got this wrong.

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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    thanks snowy the original observation was that if you are expecting that luck will surely come your way because you deserve it due to a run of a bad luck then you are misguided...it isnt goiung to happen. if you talk variance in terms of percentage rather than number you will be mislead into thinking this and maxally... i was laughing.. funny regards aussie09
    Posted by aussie09
    Yes, you do not deserve good luck because you have had bad luck, in a way you can discard the past. But... before your bad luck started you could have the expectation of having as much good luck as bad luck in a defined time frame. That is where the whole coin flip thing branches from... and that is how it is relevant.
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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited May 2010
    Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost:

    it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations.
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost: it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations.
    Posted by BlackFish3
    That's a very good summary (spelling mistakes aside). :-)))


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  • aussie09aussie09
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    Mere novice... is this right and what you are trying to tell me, i really hope it is, otherwise i am completely lost: it seems to be that the expectation is that in the infinite long term variance will even out. However, the real world outcome is not a certainty as each situation is independant of the past situations.
    Posted by BlackFish3


    bingo


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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    May I point something out.. A great debate seems to have gotten underway on if a straight coinflop, will produce as many heads, as tails over a extended period of time. As it is refering to a 'coin flip' in poker.. Well, their is no such thing as a coin flip in poker. Pocket Pair vs. 2 unsuited over cards in poker.. Pocket pair is favourite to win, 54.45% of the time. Pocket pair vs. 2 suited over cards.. Pocket pair is favourite 52.27% In theory the pocket pair should win more times over 100 deals than the over cards. So therefor mathmatically their is no such thing as a coin toss in poker, or the oppurtunity for the cards to even out over time. Which kind of makes this great heads/tails debate really quite irrelevant when it comes to this thread.
    Posted by SNOWY37

    AhKh v 2d2c is 50/50 to within less than a tenth of a percent.
    I think even pedants like me would be prepared to call that a "coin flip".
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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : That's a very good summary (spelling mistakes aside). :-)))
    Posted by MereNovice
    Brilliant! So glad i can finally understand it. Thanks a lot for you and aussies help. I enjoyed the debate.
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited May 2010

    Yes.....nice debate and very interesting reading and contributions made. 

    Thank you to Aussie & Vince for their outstanding contributions.

    I apologize in my lack of factual stuff and my feeble attempt to inject a small bit of humour into the thread.

    My excuse is that I am basically as thick as two short planks!!!

    ?....How thick is two short planks BTW?.......NO!......lets not go there.

    :)  
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited May 2010
    Humour is (almost) always a welcome addition to any debate, imo.

    Anyway, tomorrow's great debate will be "the Greek economic crisis and its impact on the 2p/4p tables".
    Book a seat early to avoid disappointment.
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  • aussie09aussie09
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    Humour is (almost) always a welcome addition to any debate, imo. Anyway, tomorrow's great debate will be "the Greek economic crisis and its impact on the 2p/4p tables". Book a seat early to avoid disappointment.
    Posted by MereNovice


    brilliant, so funny


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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited May 2010
    you guys have FAR TOO MUCH TIME ON YOUR HANDS:)
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  • ACESOVER8sACESOVER8s
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    Humour is (almost) always a welcome addition to any debate, imo. Anyway, tomorrow's great debate will be "the Greek economic crisis and its impact on the 2p/4p tables". Book a seat early to avoid disappointment.
    Posted by MereNovice
    It's crippled my ability to play as most of my investments are tied up in the Greek crockery market (a once lucrative and shrewd move if i do say so myself). People are just not throwing things around as they used to
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : It's crippled my ability to play as most of my investments are tied up in the Greek crockery market (a once lucrative and shrewd move if i do say so myself). People are just not throwing things around as they used to
    Posted by ACESOVER8s
     The demise of plate smashing is not down to the Greek economy but those bureaucrats in health and safety! LOL
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  • MAXALLYMAXALLY
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number : It's crippled my ability to play as most of my investments are tied up in the Greek crockery market (a once lucrative and shrewd move if i do say so myself). People are just not throwing things around as they used to
    Posted by ACESOVER8s
    HEY.....don't start tomorrows debate today........my head is still mashed with todays!!!!!
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  • Root_KunalRoot_Kunal
    edited May 2010
    In Response to Re: Coin Toss - Variance Perentage and Variance Number:
    And that concludes todays lesson on tossing :)
    Posted by ACESOVER8s

    I like a good toss













    of a coin
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