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Odds question...

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  • MachkaMachka
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Re: Odds question... : You can nit pick any time that you like. I'm more than happy to enter into a civil conversation with anyone. 0.0245 is a fraction and equates to 2.45%. 2.5% isn't quite 40 to 1; it is be 39 to 1 (to be precise).  :-)))
    Posted by MereNovice
    Hmmmm.
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  • TommyDTommyD
    edited July 2010
    ok guys, I have got to get involved now.

    The chances of someone being dealt AA if you are dealt AK is the same as it is when you are dealt 72 or ATC.  You are using probability wrong.  In mathematical terms you are drawing cards at exactly the same time.

    If you pick out AK then deal all the other cards then the maths changes but it's 220 to 1 for AA or KK each or 110 to 1 for either.
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  • stoneface1stoneface1
    edited July 2010
    @mere novice
    i'm no longer trying to draw swords with you and yes i was getting my odds from a table, that some seem to agree with? if you have a 16 to 1 chance of getting any pair it cannot possibly be 40 to 1 to get 1 specific pair? i am not easily confused but with all the different comments i am willing to admit to being so???
    i will check the tables again when i have lost a few more dollars to some insane calls and b.beats!!! ;)
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    @mere novice i'm no longer trying to draw swords with you and yes i was getting my odds from a table, that some seem to agree with? if you have a 16 to 1 chance of getting any pair it cannot possibly be 40 to 1 to get 1 specific pair? i am not easily confused but with all the different comments i am willing to admit to being so??? i will check the tables again when i have lost a few more dollars to some insane calls and b.beats!!! ;)
    Posted by stoneface1
    There are five other people sitting at the table.
    The odds of one of them having AA or KK is 40 to 1.
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Re: Odds question... : There are five other people sitting at the table. The odds of one of them having AA or KK is 40 to 1.
    Posted by MereNovice
    Ok i agree with this but for you to also have AK and not any other hand at the same time must be more? (in my loony mind lool)
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  • stoneface1stoneface1
    edited July 2010
    @mere novice  329 to 1 eh? yes the other ways are similarly improbable. thing is and not just for me but for others also these kind of beats happen with uncanny regularity. i wont bore you with the detail but i reckon  i probably haven't seen 329 hands tonight but the same thing happened with Js and 2's, both required to win also. with those and many others received and seen again this evening i am going to learn and invest elsewhere.
    i would like to finish with a magnanimous comment and 'wish you well without prejudice', along with all skypoker players whether they agree or disagree with my scepticism! gl to you and all......:))
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  • AyrGraemeAyrGraeme
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Odds question...:
    This is probably a really stupid question to ask as the answer may get me in alot of trouble. If I am dealt Ace King at a 6 handed table, what are the fractional odds of any opponent having pocket Kings or pocket aces? Thanx
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    Just for fun - lets we take a look at how the situation would develop - I raise 4 bb with AK and get rr to 12 - i repop it to 30 and get reraised all in with effective stacks at 100 bb - now unless we know this is a complete maniac I reckon in the majority of cases we are looking at pairs of 10s upward or AK - I am getting 13/7 on a call.  Assuming this is the situation (in terms of his hole cards) we create an imaginary 20 card deck.  I make the call 100 times am I up or down?
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Odds question... : Just for fun - lets we take a look at how the situation would develop - I raise 4 bb with AK and get rr to 12 - i repop it to 30 and get reraised all in with effective stacks at 100 bb - now unless we know this is a complete maniac I reckon in the majority of cases we are looking at pairs of 10s upward or AK - I am getting 13/7 on a call.  Assuming this is the situation (in terms of his hole cards) we create an imaginary 20 card deck.  I make the call 100 times am I up or down?
    Posted by AyrGraeme
    HAHA, you aint played here often have ya lol? And in the majority of cases your looking at rag anything lool? (thats without making an imaginary 20 deck lol) 100 calls? your down babe!!! lol!!!
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited July 2010

    Just re-bumping this thread....

    What are the odds on 1 specific card, for example, the ace of diamonds being dealt on the flop?

    Am I correct to assume its 2.2%x3 = 6.6%?

    eg, AhAs v AcKx.....

    The fractional odds of the case ace flopping?

    And one for fun...

    In a 6 max game, what r the chances of an opponent being delt AA v AK AND the flop coming ace high?

    Ty :)
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    Just re-bumping this thread.... What are the odds on 1 specific card, for example, the ace of diamonds being dealt on the flop? Am I correct to assume its 2.2%x3 = 6.6%? eg, AhAs v AcKx..... The fractional odds of the case ace flopping? And one for fun... In a 6 max game, what r the chances of an opponent being delt AA v AK AND the flop coming ace high? Ty :)
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH

    If you know four hole cards, the probability of any other specific card coming on the flop is 0.0625 (or 6.25% if you prefer). You were close but the probability of a card being dealt as any specific card in the flop is 0.0208 not 0.022. The odds change for the turn (0.0222) and river (0.0227) although the adjustments are so small that they make very little difference to any real time calculations.

    The last part of your question is unclear.
    Do you want the odds knowing that you have AK (as before) or the odds of that particular event happening before a card is dealt. If the latter, is it you that has to be dealt the AK or are the AA and AK any two random players at the table?


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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited July 2010
    Ahh ok, I thought it might be a dodgy one...

    Ok...

    1) .... I have been dealt AK, raised, been 3 bet on the button (by aces), nd I call... what r the chances of me flopping top pair?

    2) 2, as above, but change top pair, for "an ace"?

    EDIT - sry if u have started replying.....

    3) -I have AK, - the chances of someone else having KK or AA, AND the flop coming ace or king high?

    Is that even possible to work out? - too many variables?
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    It's still not clear what you're asking but I'll explain what I'm answering and I'm sure you let me know if I have misunderstood.

    Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA are:
    5 * 3/50 * 2/49  which is about 80 to 1.

    Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA or KK are:
    5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49  which is about 40 to 1 as we said earlier.

    For them to have AA and the flop to come A high (given that you have AK) the probability is:
    5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 1306 to 1.

    For them to have AA and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly:
    5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 326 to 1.

    For them to have AA or KK and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly:
    5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 162 to 1.


    Your third option is rather odd (not mathematically but poker-wise) since the difference between you flopping an ace against KK is obviously massively different to flopping a king.
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive
    edited July 2010
    lol, I know Vince is an exceptional mathematician, and far in advance of anything I could achieve, so I don't want to contradict anything he says...

    What if the first person is dealt an A or K and a random card? The odds are now decreased for the rest of the players. Or, is that negated by the fact that if the first person is NOT dealt an A or K, the odds of someone picking up aces or kings is now higher? I'm truly curious, because although I'm a decent mathematician, calculating things like this are far beyond my capabilities.
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  • IMAROCKIMAROCK
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    It's still not clear what you're asking but I'll explain what I'm answering and I'm sure you let me know if I have misunderstood. Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA are: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49  which is about 80 to 1. Given that you have been dealt AK, the probability of another playing being dealt AA or KK are: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49  which is about 40 to 1 as we said earlier. For them to have AA and the flop to come A high (given that you have AK) the probability is: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 1306 to 1. For them to have AA and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 326 to 1. For them to have AA or KK and the flop to come A or K high (given that you have AK) the probability is roughly: 5 * 2 * 3/50 * 2/49 * 4 * 3 * 1/48 which is about 162 to 1. Your third option is rather odd (not mathematically but poker-wise) since the difference between you flopping an ace against KK is obviously massively different to flopping a king.
    Posted by MereNovice



    i think merenovice is wrong with all of this.... because everytime i watch scotty77 play. when someone has AK on a A high or K high board.. scotty always has top set hahahaahaha
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    lol, I know Vince is an exceptional mathematician, and far in advance of anything I could achieve, so I don't want to contradict anything he says... What if the first person is dealt an A or K and a random card? The odds are now decreased for the rest of the players. Or, is that negated by the fact that if the first person is NOT dealt an A or K, the odds of someone picking up aces or kings is now higher? I'm truly curious, because although I'm a decent mathematician, calculating things like this are far beyond my capabilities.
    Posted by DeucesLive

    You're too kind.

    In answer to your question, yes, the odds are balanced by the odds being altered for subsequent events when the events are not independent.

    When calculating probabilities for poker you only consider the known cards.

    If you watch TV programs you may have noticed that some programs show different odds for exactly the same draw. This is because some programs only consider the cards of the people still in the hand and some consider all cards that have been discarded by the other players.


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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited July 2010
    If you hold two cards of one suit, what are the odds of flopping a flush draw ?
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    If you hold two cards of one suit, what are the odds of flopping a flush draw ?
    Posted by Dudeskin8
    If you hold two suited cards, the odds of exactly two more of the same suit coming on the flop are a little bit higher than 8 to 1.

    Don't forget that you also have a 118 to 1 chance of flopping the flush!
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive
    edited July 2010
    Let me try this one, then vince can correct me when I inevitably mess it up. :)

    Odds of a single suit (assuming 2 are held) is 11/50

    Odds are 11/50*10/49*39/48, then there's 3 combinations of that (suit/suit/off, suit/off/suit, off/suit/suit), so 10.9%? Maybe. :)
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    Let me try this one, then vince can correct me when I inevitably mess it up. :) Odds of a single suit (assuming 2 are held) is 11/50 Odds are 11/50*10/49*39/48, then there's 3 combinations of that (suit/suit/off, suit/off/suit, off/suit/suit), so 10.9%? Maybe. :)
    Posted by DeucesLive
    Perfect.
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive
    edited July 2010
    Hmm... isn't that then lower than a 1/8 chance of 2 cards though... just under a 1/9? Or is the 1/8 including the chance to flop a full flush... or did I miss something?
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    Hmm... isn't that then lower than a 1/8 chance of 2 cards though... just under a 1/9? Or is the 1/8 including the chance to flop a full flush... or did I miss something?
    Posted by DeucesLive
    10.94% is 8.14 to 1.




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  • bandinibandini
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Re: Odds question... : 10.94% is 8.14 to 1.
    Posted by MereNovice
    Is your name really Vince Gough? If so: cool, cool name. Have you cut any ears off yet?

    What're the odds on an amatuer like Luther Blisset totally outplaying a sky regular with a total understanding of poker mathematics twice in a row by the way please?

    ;-)
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Re: Odds question... : Is your name really Vince Gough? If so: cool, cool name. Have you cut any ears off yet? What're the odds on an amatuer like Luther Blisset totally outplaying a sky regular with a total understanding of poker mathematics twice in a row by the way please? ;-)
    Posted by bandini
    a) Yes
    b) No
    c) Slim

    :-)))
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  • bandinibandini
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    In Response to Re: Odds question... : a) Yes b) No c) Slim :-)))
    Posted by MereNovice
    :-)

    a) Don't know your parents, but like them
    b) Absinthe is now legal. Get to it man! Drank 3/4s a bottle of it one night. Wow.
    c) Was in absolute stitches at the way the aces got cracked. Only just caught him beating you again. Not sure what happened that time. Kudos to you for being amused by it too. I'd be the same in your position. You've just got to laugh sometimes.
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited July 2010
    I forget the second hand but there was a third one that didn't get shown.
    One of them was AK < KQ aipf, I think.


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  • bandinibandini
    edited July 2010
    In Response to Re: Odds question...:
    I forget the second hand but there was a third one that didn't get shown. One of them was AK < KQ aipf, I think.
    Posted by MereNovice
    He beat you three times???!!!  Sorry man, but I'm genuinely laughing. Seemed a lovely man but it was quite obvious he didn't have much a clue of what he was doing. Unless, of course, it's a style that's beyond my intelligence. It's more than possible.

    Think it might have been AK losing to KQ I just caught the end of.

    Surprised there hasn't been a thread dedicated to it. I'll say nothing. Or have I already? Hmmm.
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