Industry accepted myth.

AMYBR

One of the main explanations of online frequency of bad bets is (and always has been) the hph ratio (hand per hour).  Whereas live you may see 18-22 hands an hour and online it  will be in the 60-65 area.

I really have never seen the relevance of this.  Where on the surface it seems to held a elements of truth, if you really pick at it I kind of feel it comes undone.

What is basically being is said that your playing hands at 4:1 ratio (ish) as live.  The effect being that more bad beats will be seen and experienced.  But surely that logic swings both ways correcting for the ratio? 

There is alot of truth in the fact that players quickly enjoy their gains but harbour forever their bad beats.  But surely that sick feeling of terror shouldnt happen everytime you go deep, get it all in good and then are utterly unsurprised to see the miracle?

Anywho, if this 4;1 hph is the cause of so much perceived BBH then surely it should be offset of the 4:1 hph when your hand holds?  Even looking beyond that: if you are simply playing the high % hands post flop this effect should be exponential

Example:  hph Live 18-22.  On avg getting it in post flop @ 85% /> should give you a variance of 15%< over time.  Am trying not to be too specific so I'm not picked apart.  So on that basis you'll lose (statistically over a large sample size) 15 of 100 hands post flop.  This would be relative to hands selected and played when dealt with a hph avg of 18-22

Online:  hph 60-65.  Numbers run exactly the same.  Yet your high % gains should still be 85/15 based on a hph of 60-65 relative to hands selected. 

So this accepted higher hand rate = higher perception of bad beats (to my mind) really doesnt hold any basis in reality. Unless we are all have incredibly short memories and only recall the low % ends of the bad beats.  For the record i'm not including flips or anything below 80/20. So infact what should be seen is high £ plays rewarded at a 4:1 ratio incorporating the constant ratio of bad beats

If I'm missing something key please let me know.  But i've always felt that this is an utter falsehood that the industry is more than happy to cultivate

donkeyplop

If you think online poker is dodgy don't play it, nobodys forcing you are they?

AMYBR

Thankyou for the informed response.

I am genuinely looking for other peoples thoughts on the subject matter, and am open to other ideas.  Not once did i say it was dodgy.  If your just looking to be rude and caustic go somewhere else.

By your own logic, if you dont want to read it, dont.  Know one is forcing you and certainly dont feel the need to post.  But I have every right to discuss such things without unhelpful comments like the one you posted.

unknown_username

 I dont believe percentage wise their are more bad beats online, but because they come around more often peoples selective memories makes them feel as though their are! I think it is that simple.
 Also people see a lot of hands like these on TV because they make good TV which only perpetuates their beliefs.
 I have also used a players paranoia about bad beats on the river by betting big when an action card came down on the river when I had missed my draw. His responce was to fold and say " I had 2 pair! Typical Sky River its a joke!"

LOL_RAISE

you can play more than 1 table online

pomfrittes

 Also you have to factor in the anonymous nature of online play, in that you can make donk calls and not have to look someone in the eye when your hand is revealed unlike live.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

 I dont believe percentage wise their are more bad beats online, but because they come around more often peoples selective memories makes them feel as though their are! I think it is that simple.  Also people see a lot of hands like these on TV because they make good TV which only perpetuates their beliefs.  I have also used a players paranoia about bad beats on the river by betting big when an action card came down on the river when I had missed my draw. His responce was to fold and say I had 2 pair! Typical Sky River its a joke!
Posted by Donut64

Alot of what you say does hold some truth, i'd put some of it in the OP.  But then there's a real contradiction in what you say ref the underlined sections of your post.  On one hand you dont believe there are more bad beats but you do believe the river is a joke?

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

 Also you have to factor in the anonymous nature of online play, in that you can make donk calls and not have to look someone in the eye when your hand is revealed unlike live.
Posted by pomfrittes

Again i totally think that this holds truth.  People will call down lighter and play far looser.  But that still doesnt alter the fundamental math behind the game.  We werent talking flips or 60/40's. Mainly 80/20's post flop

unknown_username

 I think there are some of these  ''  and these  '' missing from donut's post. Misinterpretation there I reckon.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth. : Alot of what you say does hold some truth, i'd put some of it in the OP.  But then there's a real contradiction in what you say ref the underlined sections of your post.  On one hand you dont believe there are more bad beats but you do believe the river is a joke?
Posted by AMYBR

 LOL That is what he said not what I think!!!!! Sorry I should have used "  "
 Ps to make things clear he had 2 pair I had nothing, but the knowledge that he believed that on Sky Poker the river always hits the drawing hand!

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

  I think there are some of these  ''  and these  '' missing from donut's post. Misinterpretation there I reckon.
Posted by elsadog

 Well spotted Elsadog! You are correct!

AMYBR

I dont believe you!

So in your post you mean you prey on peoples perception that they should always be aware of the river BB?

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

I dont believe you! So in your post you mean you prey on peoples perception that they should always be aware of the river BB?
Posted by AMYBR

 The secret of playing poker is using what you know about someone against them, its one of the main reasons I like to look in Area51, you get a good idea of peoples psyche!

AMYBR

Yes I know this, I was just wanting to know if that is what you were in fact saying.  As without the "  "  it sounded like you were laying out a strategy based upon the "river being a joke" rather than preying on peoples perception that the river is a joke.

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

I dont believe you! So in your post you mean you prey on peoples perception that they should always be aware of the river BB?
Posted by AMYBR

 Here is the hand in Question! At the end I was up against a guy that I perseved would call on a draw but lay down if he missed and a guy that was paraniod about the river. I knew Mr Paraniod must have something because he plays quite tight and would have not called my raise on turn. The other was likely to be looking to hit something and I didnt think he would call with rubbish and he seemed to raise if he hit any made hand!

yer	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Par	Small blind		75.00	75.00	5715.00
boing77	Big blind		150.00	225.00	4762.50
	Your hole cards	Q 10
Oth	Raise		300.00	525.00	6160.00
jjjach	Fold
Donut64	Call		300.00	825.00	11075.00
Par	Call		225.00	1050.00	5490.00
boing77	Fold
Flop
		A K 4
Par	Check
Oth	Check
Donut64	Check
Turn
		9
Par	Check
Oth	Check
Donut64	Bet		787.50	1837.50	10287.50
Par	Call		787.50	2625.00	4702.50
Oth	Call		787.50	3412.50	5372.50
River
		9
Par	Check
Oth	Check
Donut64	Bet		2559.38	5971.88	7728.12
Par	Fold
Oth	Fold
Donut64	Muck
Donut64	Win		3412.50		11140.62
Donut64	Return		2559.38	0.00	13700.00

loonytoons

I wish people would stop calling the river a 'miracle card' even when the player has 4 to 6 outs! even if they are looking for 2 outers yes it hurts but it aint a miracle!

NoseyBonk

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

I wish people would stop calling the river a 'miracle card' even when the player has 4 to 6 outs! even if they are looking for 2 outers yes it hurts but it aint a miracle!
Posted by loonytoons

Never understood why some players get so obsessed with 'the river' - afterall it is one of the five perfectly valid community cards. Doesn't really make any difference if it's the first or fifth.

NODEAL

To say if you dont like it ,   Dont play holds little validity,    we all have a vested interest in making sure all activities are fair and just,    my activity may not be yours but it is in my interest to make sure all activities are run correctly,      The jury is out imo      ...   One thing im sure of is that to question rng is normal,      I have noticed an odd anomaly also,     it may just be an incredable coincedance ,    Just the way a fruit  machine entices one to play I have noticed an unusual amount of time when I get a pair in my hole cards lets say  77,  that a 7 will apear in my next hand,    not always,    just enough to make me wonder,      I mentioned it to skypoker and they said it must be a coincidance.   This has carried on and now the odds are incredable but not impossable.

Patching99

To the OP, you are basing people recalling bad beats on maths.  The brain doesn't work that way.  Bad experiences stick in peoples mind more than good ones, its thats simple.

NODEAL

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

To the OP, you are basing people recalling bad beats on maths.  The brain doesn't work that way.  Bad experiences stick in peoples mind more than good ones, its thats simple.
Posted by Patching99

Thank goodness we can all go to sleep now,   its sorted

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

To the OP, you are basing people recalling bad beats on maths.  The brain doesn't work that way.  Bad experiences stick in peoples mind more than good ones, its thats simple.
Posted by Patching99

For those who haven't yet watched it, this link explains the above pretty well.

See it through.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOX1Hn-bw1k

donkeyplop

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

Thankyou for the informed response. I am genuinely looking for other peoples thoughts on the subject matter, and am open to other ideas.  Not once did i say it was dodgy.  If your just looking to be rude and caustic go somewhere else. By your own logic, if you dont want to read it, dont.  Know one is forcing you and certainly dont feel the need to post.  But I have every right to discuss such things without unhelpful comments like the one you posted.
Posted by AMYBR

My point was why play online if you believe there may be something dodgy going on?

Wasn't having a go, but if I thought it was fixed or unfair I wouldnt play, that's all.........

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

To the OP, you are basing people recalling bad beats on maths.  The brain doesn't work that way.  Bad experiences stick in peoples mind more than good ones, its thats simple.
Posted by Patching99

Err.. no i'm not.  I even built this issue within the OP, that it is indeed natural to enjoy gains and harbour bad beats.  I'm talking about specific post flops odds of at least 80/20 up to the dreaded 95/5 giving the 1/5 and 1/20 shots.  Again if you really look at what i posted I am aware of the counter argument and was speaking of hands over a larger sample size

BelovedLtd

It is largely based on the fact that people remember bad things more than good, but it is also related to demographics.

Loose aggressive players hardly ever get bad beats because they often put their money in when behind, and even when they do get a bad beat they won't particularly care because they're used to being on the other end of them.

Tight players are going to experience more bad beats because when they put their money in they're likely to be in the lead - i.e. they get more because they're in the position to be able to get more.

But even then that's not going to be all tight players - because most tight solid players know that they're going to get bad beats, they know that they might even get a run of them so they don't particularly care about them either.

It's the tight players who are less experienced and with less ability (i.e. they think some hands are bad beats when they're actually completely standard) that tend to get p1ssed off and start spouting off about conspiracies; once players get better at playing - they tend to complain less about bad beats. (well some don't - but generally it's true)

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

It is largely based on the fact that people remember bad things more than good, but it is also related to demographics. Loose aggressive players hardly ever get bad beats because they often put their money in when behind, and even when they do get a bad beat they won't particularly care because they're used to being on the other end of them. Tight players are going to experience more bad beats because when they put their money in they're likely to be in the lead - i.e. they get more because they're in the position to be able to get more. But even then that's not going to be all tight players - because most tight solid players know that they're going to get bad beats, they know that they might even get a run of them so they don't particularly care about them either. It's the tight players who are less experienced and with less ability (i.e. they think some hands are bad beats when they're actually completely standard) that tend to get p1ssed off and start spouting off about conspiracies; once players get better at playing - they tend to complain less about bad beats. (well some don't - but generally it's true)
Posted by BelovedLtd

Your making a pretty quick assumption that  I'm inexperienced or a tight player.  Again look at the opening post.  I'm talking of hands fitting a specific criteria over a sample size.  For the record I have been on Tv twice playing poker, played in 1 wsop event and 3 EPT events. Casino 3 nights a week and travel down to DTD Nottingham once a month.  Whereas much of what you say holds elements of truth it really is a total over simplification not taking into account the subjuect matter of the opening post. 

You guys win though I'm kind of getting tired of the very selective way people argue their points.  I used to have no doubt that all was fine with online poker, building up a pretty big BR at FT.  My point of view hasnt come about by being new or inexperienced and not understanding the flows and variance of the game.  It comes from hard earned experience, making frequent comparison to online/live play.  All along I have agreed and acknowledged that there are many elements to the enigma that is online play: playing styles, perceptions, time,problematic - but not strictly corrupt -software etc but for the most part people dont want to really acknowledge what they must also see themselves.

Fact is I dont ever want to be more than a recreational online player these days.  More than I dont trust it, I dont enjoy it a tenth as the real thing.  All I wanted to see was if people had experiences similar to mine.  I believe there are many well accepted falsehoods in online poker, i havent seen anything to change that belief.

YOUNG_GUN

plonkhead

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Industry accepted myth.:

plonkhead
Posted by YOUNG_GUN

I don't think he is, in fact he has tried a number of times to gain peoples views in a civil manner. Comments like this are classic. I take it school has closed for the day now.

AMYBR

Is that the most offensive word that will get past the mods?  Being part of a debate is one thing.  Childishly weighing in with insults really does just show the range of your character and intellect

igimc

I'm afraid that is the level of some of these "regs" on here who

don't have the intelligence to conduct a meaningful debate or

in fact put two words together.

lordbobby

as certain posters will tell you i left this site cos of a never ending story of outdraws/ b' beats and what not. maybe i just figured a change of scene would do me good mentality wise, but i'd say your better off with sky probably than anywhere else. they have a PROPER customer care department rather than anonymous e-mails, the presenters interact with the customers unlike anywhere else and sky have too many other interests outside poker to jepordise it by committing any wrongdoing. but i can understand why people wish to have the debate and i have been there, in fact i'm not sure i've left there ..
bob

NODEAL

um ont no ,    al i no is       pocker cud be rigd     or mibes no,      um stil finkin it over.

ill jist lissen to yous interlectshuls