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would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..

edited March 2011 in Area 51
Have been making sizeable sums of money between live games playing roulette, based on an overbetting diminished odds on standard probability.  Figured i'd pump some money online to see if it worked aswell.  Skyvegas roulette:  Any other math guys want to give me odds on this run?

29 25 33 39 29 27 27 15 21 21 21 29 29 3 3 3 33.

Yeah ok, 17 odd. by 9 numbers.  I'm to tired to do the math, but were talking really, really low probability here.  A rule that runs through this franchise apparently.


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Comments

  • edited March 2011
    In Response to would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    Have been making sizeable sums of money between live games playing roulette, based on an overbetting diminished odds on standard probability.  Figured i'd pump some money online to see if it worked aswell.  Skyvegas roulette:  Any other math guys want to give me odds on this run? 29 25 33 39 29 27 27 15 21 21 21 29 29 3 3 3 33. Yeah ok, 17 odd. by 9 numbers.  I'm to tired to do the math, but were talking really, really low probability here.  A rule that runs through this franchise apparently.
    Posted by AMYBR
    rule number 1 never ever play online roulette or roulette in the betting shops.
    rule number 2 see rule number 1
    mate i worked in the bookies for years and these things are well know as the crack coke(wont let me put the other) of the betting industry they will break you stay well away.
  • edited March 2011
    Thanks for the advice bud, only been doing it Live mostly, just wanted to see if it worked online (£5).  After 21/21/29/29/3/3/3 I am more than happy to take your advice!!!
  • edited March 2011
    You know this actually brings up an interesting point. 

    If people happily believe that electronic gambling (blackjack/roulette) are utterly fixed then is it such a stretch to believe that online pokere holds the same potential?  Why one if not the other?
  • edited March 2011

    Because 1 is player v the house.

    The other is player v player.
  • edited March 2011
    yes, the decisions are player based, but acting upon the information provided by the house.  If the information is tweaked in the same manner as blackjack/roulette, what then?  If the house is demonstrating its potential for deceit and corruptness on those devices, where is the line drawn?
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    You know this actually brings up an interesting point.  If people happily believe that electronic gambling (blackjack/roulette) are utterly fixed then is it such a stretch to believe that online pokere holds the same potential?  Why one if not the other?
    Posted by AMYBR
    In poker the house gets the same rake no matter who wins, by fixing hands they have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : In poker the house gets the same rake no matter who wins, by fixing hands they have nothing to gain and everything to lose.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    i agree with you on this that they still get the same rake no matter who wins but consider this if only the best players won then the majority of casual customers would not play as it would not be enjoyable if they did not win this would then lower your customer base numbers which would mean less people playing due to a smaller customer base which=less people playing sit and go's less in tourney's less playing cash which overall means less returns for the operator FACT.
    NOW PLEASE NOTE IM NOT SAYING SKY IS RIGGED BUT THESE ARE THINGS TO BEAR IN MIND.all i want is the software to be looked at due to the amount of ridiculous out draws and action hands which in my view is very unrealistic i can accept bad beats the same as the next guy but it is the consistancy and predictability of them at the moment which concerns me.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : i agree with you on this that they still get the same rake no matter who wins but consider this if only the best players won then the majority of casual customers would not play as it would not be enjoyable if they did not win this would then lower your customer base numbers which would mean less people playing due to a smaller customer base which=less people playing sit and go's less in tourney's less playing cash which overall means less returns for the operator FACT. NOW PLEASE NOTE IM NOT SAYING SKY IS RIGGED BUT THESE ARE THINGS TO BEAR IN MIND.all i want is the software to be looked at due to the amount of ridiculous out draws and action hands which in my view is very unrealistic i can accept bad beats the same as the next guy but it is the consistancy and predictability of them at the moment which concerns me.
    Posted by dalty
    and as we all know any business objective is to get a large customer base which then protects your business so yes of course it makes sense to tweak it a little would they??? thats the question.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : and as we all know any business objective is to get a large customer base which then protects your business so yes of course it makes sense to tweak it a little would they??? thats the question.
    Posted by dalty
    course they would hav nt u ever noticed when you withdraw money you done seem to hit as many cards lol and by playing on this site you must the amount of 1 outers happen a day !!!!!
  • edited March 2011
    id have bet odd..


  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    id have bet odd..
    Posted by djblacke04
    and then..of course it comes in even,fixup...when you consider they can fixup the entire worldwide economy,.(reference,...zeitgeist.com...addendum.),then a pin-money game (populated by,on the whole poorer people trying to escape the ghetto)is no biggie,to them..this world needs a revolution..
  • edited March 2011
    Ok, whether it would be in their interest or not "everything to lose, nothing to gain" surely - if people are accepting these machines offer crooked variables - the fact that these machines are part of the industry highlights that electronic gambling is very open for abuse and tampering?

    Forgetting the argument of who it would benefit, surely the fact that they are used en masse puts all electronic gambling ideals to the test.  If one, why not the other.  Yes, the rake remains the same either way.  But if you lose consistently at poker, most people stop playing.  People chuck fortunes into fruit machines knowing they are going to lose, based on the "nearly there" adrenaline rush that is designed into the software.  It reinforces the dependancy the more you play. 

    So if you have this with fruit machines, the crooked odds of virtual roulette/blackjack - can you really put online poker beyond reproach?  The "nearly there" dependancy could very easily draw parrallels with the non stop action boards seen online, plus the frequent 5%< bad beats, "if only i'd made my hand/if only he hadnt hit that 4 outer".
    It would have a very similar affect.  Speaking personally, I think thats why i persevered for so long. 
  • edited March 2011
    I have only 2 things to say

    1 online casinos ARE corrupt as they are on a payout ratio = not random

    2 poker IS purely player dependant so any hand could in theory win

    BUT yeah i agree amybr that it is in all probability rigged for action but i have adjusted my game massively in the past few months and my recent good run speaks for itself xxx
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    I have only 2 things to say 1 online casinos ARE corrupt as they are on a payout ratio = not random 2 poker IS purely player dependant so any hand could in theory win BUT yeah i agree amybr that it is in all probability rigged for action but i have adjusted my game massively in the past few months and my recent good run speaks for itself xxx
    Posted by debdobs_67
    totaly agree adjust your game accordingly but do not let it affect your game.i feel that it is not rigged but maybe needs some adjustments made.i will say again i love this site and comunity i just do not want holywood poker!
  • edited March 2011
    they dont need to rig blackjack/roullette because they will make money on them whatever 'strategy' you have to play them.

    the fact that you play roulette frequently as a poker player is completely mind blowing

    you know that you will lose long term and yet you carry on playing


    in b4 counting cards
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    Have been making sizeable sums of money between live games playing roulette, based on an overbetting diminished odds on standard probability.  Figured i'd pump some money online to see if it worked aswell.  Skyvegas roulette:  Any other math guys want to give me odds on this run? 29 25 33 39 29 27 27 15 21 21 21 29 29 3 3 3 33. Yeah ok, 17 odd. by 9 numbers.  I'm to tired to do the math, but were talking really, really low probability here.  A rule that runs through this franchise apparently.
    Posted by AMYBR

    i maybe wrong but this is definate evidence of a fix....as far as i m aware and i may be wrong there are only 36 numbers on a roulette wheel....so take this complaint to head office ,thats what i say...

    lol...


  • edited March 2011
    DJBLACK:  Yawn, ignoring the content picking up the typo.

    LOLRAISE:  Its mind blowing that a math poker player plays live roulette?  Alot of transferrable skills, based on odds and dicipline.  Check out Chan's BR history and how it relates to Roulette/blackjack/craps, yeah mindblowing.....

    Tons of pro's play high stakes blackjack/roulette, to me its mindblowing that you think its an oddity.

    The simple point I was making was that if its accepted that online casino's are rigged, to reach a certain profit margin, surely that demonstrates the insidious nature of electronic gambling?  Why would poker be any diifferent?  Surely it is in fact more likely that online poker is more akin to this than not?  Again it is player vs player, but acting on the information provided by the host.  If that information is tweaked (as is online casino's) then its no where near a true game.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    LOLRAISE:  Its mind blowing that a math poker player plays live roulette?  Alot of transferrable skills, based on odds and dicipline.  Check out Chan's BR history and how it relates to Roulette/blackjack/craps, yeah mindblowing..... Tons of pro's play high stakes blackjack/roulette, to me its mindblowing that you think its an oddity.
    Posted by AMYBR

    thats because they are all degens there, is nothing transferable between roullette and poker.  you KNOW that you will lose money at this game yet you still play it. that is just pure degen gambling.

    yes there is skill to blackjack but all that does is teach you how to lose more slowly, ofcourse you can count cards etc and gain a small edge. but with the multi shoe decks and the fact that you will just get banned from all casinoes when you get caught doing it its not really a viable way to make alot of money.

    what are these skills based on odds that you use in live roullette 'oh look im 36/1 against to hit and when i do hit they pay me 35/1 now since i am expert math poker player i know that i will lose money playing this game but lets do it anyway'

    'oh look if i bet on red i am 19/18 to hit and when i do they pay me 1:1 now since i am expert math poker player i know that im going to lose money playing this game but lets do it anyway'
  • edited March 2011
    Yes what you say is true.  on both things, it is slightly leaning towards compulsive gambling.

    The way it is transferrable though is the basis of odds and probability.  I start with £100 always.  standard bet of £10 spreading 66% of the board.  Mainly its a break even philosophy.  But on occassion that 66% runs hitting 7/8 spins.  But equally it can run consecutively bad.  Then maintaining those bets your looking for abberations in the board by 5.  So 5 consecutive black/red/one third board/half board/odd-even. Thats where you make your big bets based on the depreciated odds. 

    I'm making a good income from it.  £100 goes up in smoke you stop.  It reaches the target of £500 i stop.  £400 in the kitty, £100 for next time.  Its a sound principlal of math and odds - but yes, slightly compulsive :p
  • edited March 2011
    Speaking from experience. I can say Roulette is the devil.

    I busted my bankroll on it - twice. Big bankrolls.

    The game is designed to beat you, rigged or not you can't win.

    I'm in the middle of trying to grind a BR back due to my utter stupidity (inner degen).

    Just don't do it.
  • edited March 2011
    so your saying if you flip a coin 10 times in a row it comes heads then the next flip its more likely going to be tails?

  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    so your saying if you flip a coin 10 times in a row it comes heads then the next flip its more likely going to be tails?
    Posted by LOL_RAISE

    Thats a statistical fact bud.  Every time it comes heads the odds change from 50/50 and lean more towards the underachieved variable.  Increasing more and more on each flip if it keeps coming down heads.  FACT
  • edited March 2011
    Every time you flip a coin it's 50/50. It doesn't matter what the previous flips have been.

  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : Thats a statistical fact bud.  Every time it comes heads the odds change from 50/50 and lean more towards the underachieved variable.  Increasing more and more on each flip if it keeps coming down heads.  FACT
    Posted by AMYBR
    That is not true.

    The flips are independant of eachother.

    The coin has no memory.
  • edited March 2011


    hmmm the age old question of advanced (chaos) probability...


    for example the odds of 1,2,3,4,5,6 bonus 7 coming out on the lottery are exactly the same as any other combination,but if they did people would complain,and also advanced probability theory explains that consecutive numbers are far less likely..

    regards
    toby


  • edited March 2011
    I just dont quite know what to say to some of these replies, its such a basic model of probability that I cant believe opinions are divided.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : Thats a statistical fact bud.  Every time it comes heads the odds change from 50/50 and lean more towards the underachieved variable.  Increasing more and more on each flip if it keeps coming down heads.  FACT
    Posted by AMYBR

    ok..i will answer this....just so you are clear....


    the odds on one single toss of a coin are 50/50 heads /tails...

    but if you said to me what are the odds on throwing two heads consecutively they are (1/2)x(1/2) which is 1/4 or 25% of the time...
    the probability never ever changes ,i could show you some very clever maths,that can prove this beyond doubt,and also show you a very clever bar trick that involves coin flips....

    which you wouldnt understand and would probably confuse you even more...

    but at the end of the day..

    the odds on throwing one coin at any one time is still 50/50 no matter what has come before....



  • edited March 2011
    I'm not confused buddy.
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:
    I'm not confused buddy.
    Posted by AMYBR

    The Physics of Coin Flipping

    If the coin is tossed and caught, it has about a 51% chance of landing on the same face it was launched. (If it starts out as heads, there's a 51% chance it will end as heads).
    If the coin is spun, rather than tossed, it can have a much-larger-than-50% chance of ending with the heavier side down. Spun coins can exhibit "huge bias" (some spun coins will fall tails-up 80% of the time).
    If the coin is tossed and allowed to clatter to the floor, this probably adds randomness.
    If the coin is tossed and allowed to clatter to the floor where it spins, as will sometimes happen, the above spinning bias probably comes into play.
    A coin will land on its edge around 1 in 6000 throws, creating a flipistic singularity.
    The same initial coin-flipping conditions produce the same coin flip result. That is, there's a certain amount of determinism to the coin flip.
    A more robust coin toss (more revolutions) decreases the bias.
    The 51% figure in Premise 1 is a bit curious and, when I first saw it, I assumed it was a minor bias introduced by the fact that the "heads" side of the coin has more decoration than the "tails" side, making it heavier. But it turns out that this sort of imbalance has virtually no effect unless you spin the coin on its edge, in which case you'll see a huge bias. The reason a typical coin toss is 51-49 and not 50-50 has nothing to do with the asymmetry of the coin and everything to do with the aggregate amount of time the coin spends in each state, as it flips through space.
    A good way of thinking about this is by looking at the ratio of odd numbers to even numbers when you start counting from 1.
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
    No matter how long you count, you'll find that at any given point, one of two things will be true:
    You've touched more odd numbers than even numbers
    You've touched an equal amount of odd numbers and even numbers
    What will never happen, is this:
    You've touched more even numbers than odd numbers.
    Similarly, consider a coin, launched in the "heads" position, flipping heads over tails through the ether:
    H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H
    At any given point in time, either the coin will have spent equal time in the Heads and Tails states, or it will have spent more time in the Heads state. In the aggregate, it's slightly more likely that the coin shows Heads at a given point in time—including whatever time the coin is caught. And vice-versa if you start the coin-flip from the Tails position.


    The Strategy of Coin Flipping

    When it's a true 50-50 toss, there is no strategy. But if we take it as granted, or at least possible, that a coin flip does indeed exhibit a 1% or more bias, then the following rules of thumb might apply.
    Always be the chooser, if possible. This allows you to leverage Premise 1 or Premise 2 for those extra percentage points.
    Always be the thrower, if you can. This protects you from virtuoso coin-flippers who are able to leverage Premise 6 to produce a desired outcome. It also protects you against the added randomness (read: fairness) introduced by flippers who will occasionally, without rhyme or reason, invert the coin in their palm before revealing. 
    Don't allow the same person to both toss and choose. Unless, of course, that person is you.
    If the coin is being tossed, and you're the chooser, always choose the side that's initially face down. According to Premise 1, you'd always choose the side that's initially face up, but most people, upon flipping a coin, will invert it into their other palm before revealing. Hence, you choose the opposite side, but you get the same 1% advantage. Of course, if you happen to know that a particular flipper doesn't do this, use your better judgment.
    If you are the thrower but not the chooser, sometimes invert the coin into your other palm after catching, and sometimes don't. This protects you against people who follow Rule 4 blindly by assuming you'll either invert the coin or you won't.
    If the coin is being spun rather than tossed, always choose whichever side is lightest. On a typical coin, the "Heads" side of the coin will have more "stuff" engraved on it, causing Tails to show up more frequently than it should. Choosing Tails in this situation is usually the power play.
    Never under any circumstances agree to a coin spin if you're not the chooser. This opens you up to a devastating attack if your opponent is aware of Premise 2.
    I hope I've made it clear that none of this is really to be taken seriously. The point is that adding even 1% of wobble to a situation of pure chance can create a lot of additional complexity, and that in turn, can create strategy where none existed before.
  • edited March 2011
    Can we relate this back to THE ACTUAL point, which was increased probability in roulette.  The evidence for the argument of flipping a coin isnt transferable to roulette, which was the point at hand.  Were simply talking probability.
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