would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..

djblacke04

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

Can we relate this back to THE ACTUAL point, which was increased probability in roulette.  The evidence for the argument of flipping a coin isnt transferable to roulette, which was the point at hand.  Were simply talking probability.
Posted by AMYBR

sorry i thought probability ,was the conversation ,and i was trying to illustrate how even the most simple of probabilities can have complex complications...

yb

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

I just dont quite know what to say to some of these replies, its such a basic model of probability that I cant believe opinions are divided.
Posted by AMYBR

lol, however many times you flip a coin and it comes tails, the next toss is still 50/50, thats a fact.

There is no skill in roulette at all and whenever you play it over a decent sample size you will lose money, I lost a lot of money on it when I was a degen before I started playing poker so I'm talking from experience. People who think they have 'found a system' are deluding themselves.

AMYBR

Statistics and probability arent the same thing gents.

LOL_RAISE

neither are roullette and poker

AMYBR

I disagree, what more can I say?  To my mind, probability is at the core of any roulette strategy.

yb

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

I disagree, what more can I say?  To my mind, probability is at the core of any roulette strategy.
Posted by AMYBR

lol

closing your eyes and picking numbers at random would work just as well as any strategy you could devise

philmenow

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : The Physics of Coin Flipping If the coin is tossed and caught, it has about a 51% chance of landing on the same face it was launched. (If it starts out as heads, there's a 51% chance it will end as heads). If the coin is spun, rather than tossed, it can have a much-larger-than-50% chance of ending with the heavier side down. Spun coins can exhibit "huge bias" (some spun coins will fall tails-up 80% of the time). If the coin is tossed and allowed to clatter to the floor, this probably adds randomness. If the coin is tossed and allowed to clatter to the floor where it spins, as will sometimes happen, the above spinning bias probably comes into play. A coin will land on its edge around 1 in 6000 throws, creating a flipistic singularity. The same initial coin-flipping conditions produce the same coin flip result. That is, there's a certain amount of determinism to the coin flip. A more robust coin toss (more revolutions) decreases the bias. The 51% figure in Premise 1 is a bit curious and, when I first saw it, I assumed it was a minor bias introduced by the fact that the "heads" side of the coin has more decoration than the "tails" side, making it heavier. But it turns out that this sort of imbalance has virtually no effect unless you spin the coin on its edge, in which case you'll see a huge bias. The reason a typical coin toss is 51-49 and not 50-50 has nothing to do with the asymmetry of the coin and everything to do with the aggregate amount of time the coin spends in each state, as it flips through space. A good way of thinking about this is by looking at the ratio of odd numbers to even numbers when you start counting from 1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 No matter how long you count, you'll find that at any given point, one of two things will be true: You've touched more odd numbers than even numbers You've touched an equal amount of odd numbers and even numbers What will never happen, is this: You've touched more even numbers than odd numbers. Similarly, consider a coin, launched in the "heads" position, flipping heads over tails through the ether: H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H T H At any given point in time, either the coin will have spent equal time in the Heads and Tails states, or it will have spent more time in the Heads state. In the aggregate, it's slightly more likely that the coin shows Heads at a given point in time—including whatever time the coin is caught. And vice-versa if you start the coin-flip from the Tails position. The Strategy of Coin Flipping When it's a true 50-50 toss, there is no strategy. But if we take it as granted, or at least possible, that a coin flip does indeed exhibit a 1% or more bias, then the following rules of thumb might apply. Always be the chooser, if possible. This allows you to leverage Premise 1 or Premise 2 for those extra percentage points. Always be the thrower, if you can. This protects you from virtuoso coin-flippers who are able to leverage Premise 6 to produce a desired outcome. It also protects you against the added randomness (read: fairness) introduced by flippers who will occasionally, without rhyme or reason, invert the coin in their palm before revealing.  Don't allow the same person to both toss and choose. Unless, of course, that person is you. If the coin is being tossed, and you're the chooser, always choose the side that's initially face down. According to Premise 1, you'd always choose the side that's initially face up, but most people, upon flipping a coin, will invert it into their other palm before revealing. Hence, you choose the opposite side, but you get the same 1% advantage. Of course, if you happen to know that a particular flipper doesn't do this, use your better judgment. If you are the thrower but not the chooser, sometimes invert the coin into your other palm after catching, and sometimes don't. This protects you against people who follow Rule 4 blindly by assuming you'll either invert the coin or you won't. If the coin is being spun rather than tossed, always choose whichever side is lightest. On a typical coin, the "Heads" side of the coin will have more "stuff" engraved on it, causing Tails to show up more frequently than it should. Choosing Tails in this situation is usually the power play. Never under any circumstances agree to a coin spin if you're not the chooser. This opens you up to a devastating attack if your opponent is aware of Premise 2. I hope I've made it clear that none of this is really to be taken seriously. The point is that adding even 1% of wobble to a situation of pure chance can create a lot of additional complexity, and that in turn, can create strategy where none existed before.
Posted by djblacke04

42 years of life and iv never once seen a flipistic singularity,i gotta do more tossing.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : lol closing your eyes and picking numbers at random would work just as well as any strategy you could devise
Posted by yb

Your wrong.  Even the most basic understanding of the nature of probability should explain this.

yb

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : Your wrong.  Even the most basic understanding of the nature of probability should explain this.
Posted by AMYBR

google conditional probability

LOL_RAISE

so if i notice that the flop has been all red the last few times that means suited clubs and spade hands are alot stronger right, sweet.

djblacke04

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free.. : 42 years of life and iv never once seen a flipistic singularity ,i gotta do more tossing.
Posted by philmenow

actually even tho it is a 6000-1 shot(which is less than runner runner royal flush) i have had it happen twice...

and one time all sorts of stamping and banging did not rectify the problem and a retoss was ordered..

cuffyno1

lol raise you can say what you want ur a member of the sky poker team so in my eyes your bound to hit more cards     NOW THAT IS A FACT OF LIFE !!!!!

penguin7

People with wonderful roulette systems make me laugh. Over the years there have been many very good poker players who would routinely blow the lot on the roulette tables after a good tournament win.

And the systems all fail because of the same flaws in thinking.

The spin of a roulette wheel is truly random. The fact that odd numbers have come up so many times in a row has no effect whatsoever on the outcome of the next spin.

And multiple bets on combinations of numbers do not change the odds of winning or losing. A bet on one number is not in any way affected by any other bets on other numbers.

Each individual bet placed on a number must be viewed on a stand alone basis, unaffected by past outcomes or other chips on the table.

And as such the odds on winning from each chip on each individual number are always the same..36/1. And they pay out 35/1.

So the odds are always the same. Every spin of the wheel the house should gain about 3% of the chips on the table. And over time they invariably will.

Roulette in a casino is great fun and should be viewed as such. But there is no system that can change these odds.

Online roulette and roulette machines are totally different, the rules change in that they are allowed to be programmed to produce a higher profit margin for the house. Anyone who plays them needs help !

unknown_username

In Response to Re: would love to be given the odds on this, anyone please feel free..:

People with wonderful roulette systems make me laugh. Over the years there have been many very good poker players who would routinely blow the lot on the roulette tables after a good tournament win. And the systems all fail because of the same flaws in thinking. The spin of a roulette wheel is truly random. The fact that odd numbers have come up so many times in a row has no effect whatsoever on the outcome of the next spin. And multiple bets on combinations of numbers do not change the odds of winning or losing. A bet on one number is not in any way affected by any other bets on other numbers. Each individual bet placed on a number must be viewed on a stand alone basis, unaffected by past outcomes or other chips on the table. And as such the odds on winning from each chip on each individual number are always the same..36/1. And they pay out 35/1. So the odds are always the same. Every spin of the wheel the house should gain about 3% of the chips on the table. And over time they invariably will. Roulette in a casino is great fun and should be viewed as such. But there is no system that can change these odds. Online roulette and roulette machines are totally different, the rules change in that they are allowed to be programmed to produce a higher profit margin for the house. Anyone who plays them needs help !
Posted by penguin7

Totally agree with this .............. I need to go for a lie down )

AMYBR

I never said it was wonderful, infact I'm sure I said it was evil!!

But until I start to lose some of what I've stashed away from it I'm happy to continue.

What I do find hilarious though is that some people truly demonise one form of electronic gambling, but wont accept even for a moment that another may be corrupt.  Yes, I know the arguments for and against, but doesnt it give you pause for thought...even for a second...? 

Its ok, I know Player vs player, not player vs house.  As if its really that simple.