Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?

YOUNG_GUN

#364119320

Ok so on the other table they had 3 ppl less then 8BB and saw that a couple ppl were lucky, im very comfortable but find Jacks 4 handed.

My Initial thoughts are i can re-raise to 7200ish, but would find difficult to fold. I thought they could have hands like AK, AQ, A10, KQ any PP the inital raiser. The flat from nutter tells me he has a good ace actually put on AQ which he did say he had... so rather then make it tricky post flop or if i get shoved on i thought best move was to shove. not often i will be behind in this spot, didnt think person who raised was solid at all.

So could you get away from it? essentially it is a cooler but the bubble dynamic so was their an arguement for flatting and act with caution.

Be interested in all thoughts, including beanhead...nutter if poss?

Nutter5932	Small blind		600.00	600.00	44679.50
YOUNG_GUN	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	20474.25
	Your hole cards	J J
qwtf_Gman	Raise		3100.00	4900.00	29892.75
beaneh	Fold
Nutter5932	Call		2500.00	7400.00	42179.50
YOUNG_GUN	All-in		20474.25	27874.25	0.00
qwtf_Gman	All-in		29892.75	57767.00	0.00
Nutter5932	Fold
qwtf_Gman	Unmatched bet		11318.50	46448.50	11318.50
YOUNG_GUN	Show	J J
qwtf_Gman	Show	Q Q
Flop
		2 9 A
Turn
		10
River
		4
qwtf_Gman	Win	Pair of Queens	46448.50		57767.00

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DannyMcs

Hats off to you mate, it was a playing to win not to cash move and in that sense, at the least, I think you can say it was the right thing to do. I had your table open while ours was running but wasn't paying enough attention to say much about qwtf's play, but with the range you put him on with the utg raise I think I'd do the same.

Pot is already big and well worth taking down pre, very few flops you're going to like, and the stack sizes are such that it seems like a great spot to squeeze almost regardless of what you have. Get it in there!

VLV final bubble I fold 'em with a quiet conscience, but anything else I think I do the same unless qwtf has only raised once utg the entire time or something.

DOHHHHHHH

I watched the whole thing, and you didn't deserve this.

Having the last 2 tables open tilted me so bad. You had the three biggest stacks when 4 handed, whilst on the other table there were three people folding down to as low as 4xbb trying not to bubble, even limping in from a 4xbb stack.

It was sickening really, had beaneh/nutter or even the other guy been on the other table, those guys would have been long gone.

This is definitely the right move to re-shove, but given the situation, and knowing how big a tourny it was for you I might have nitted it up and just flatted pre.

As DM's says ^ 100% fair play to you for putting the bubble and all other considerations out of your mind and making the right play. 

Just so sick that you ended up bubbling after playing so well and some plonker got to the FT before finally shoving his 2xbb stack and getting caught. 

Sick game sometimes, I guess this is why so many bad players on sky have +ve stats on skope! They just run too good

DannyMcs

At least one of the guys limping with 4-5bbs is normally a solid player, I was really surprised to see that. Guess £200 means more to him than I'd expect, and hey - why not limp? You'll probably flop a set against top two pair like he did twice

Talon

  In this situation you only realistically have 2 options jam or fold.Flat calling would be a really bad choice because unless the flop contains a jack then you can never be sure where you are and there is a 50% chance of an overcard hitting.

  An interesting dynamic in this situation is the short stacks on the other table and the payout structure.With it being 8 paid it means that each subsequent knockout would mean a ladder up for all concerned. With this in mind as soon as the bubble bursts there will be at least 2 more stacks throwing their chips in the middle desperate for a double up now they have cashed.This means that in all likelihood a tight game at this stage would result in not only a cash but also 2 quick ladder ups so you would not be looking at folding to a minimum cash but a bit bigger one and very likely a FT spot.


   Even with this said i think folding JJ is probably too tight but it is a thought that needs to be considered.VUL mate.

DannyMcs

It was sickening really, had beaneh/nutter or even the other guy been on the other table, those guys would have been long gone.

Maybe, maybe not. The problem from my POV was that to my left it went good, deep stack, limpy shorty, limpy shorty, and every time I put in an otb or utg raise to put one of the shorts all in it was called/RR'd by the guy with the deep stack and folded by the shorties. Hence I found myself more than once in big pots with cr*p like K10 I'm happy to take on 4bbs with but don't want to get into a real war over. Yet when he was otb he seemed to let them battle of the blinds it most times. It was a weird dynamic.

DeucesLive

This is a tough one, but my instincts here are- you've satellited in, and even a mincash is a massive payout comparative to your 'buyin', so firstly take that into consideration.

Secondly, one of two things is happening when you shove- you're looked up, or they fold. Kinda obvious, but then look at the rewards.

The 1200 you put in from the BB is gone now, so we can be looking at a scenario where your 20k chips are at risk or you're adding ~7500 to your stack. 

If you get looked up, it's unlikely you're any better than a 50/50 at best. There's a weak possibility he has 10's or 9's and perhaps looks you up, but with such a strong stack and shorties at the other table it'd be a poor move. So you're against QQ+ and AK if you get called, which doesn't stack up well.

When you think of it that way, you'd be just as well off shoving with say 55/66. Would you make that shove with those hands? How small a pair would you be actually willing to shove with?

Shoving with JJ here has to be the correct play in terms of chip return, but more because you get a vast amount of folds- I think you're in bad shape anytime you get looked up. With the bubble and so many shorties, and with you having a pretty solid stack here- I think I would be tempted to open fold here (calling is a bad bad option OOP). If, however, your stack was 13/14k or so, I'd be way more tempted to shove because his calling range is much wider, and you could easily get looked up by AQ/AJ as well as 10's, 9's, 8's- in fact, he'd be committed to calling with a lot of hands. 

DOHHHHHHH

Yeh but you weren't one of the tournament chip leaders....

Alright you had a big stack at that table and were relatively comfortable at around 20-30k, but the other three guys on the other table had 40/50k+ .........

It was just a massive flip to lose for YG to get the wrong table when down to 2 tables.

Having said that he played aggressively and increased his stack against the 2 best players and 2 biggest stacks left in the field.

Which makes the whole situation even more gut wrenching! lol.

I wasn't slating the play of you or goodylad at the other table, I actually enjoyed watching the meta-game between you 2. 

I'm not sure about your read on/opinion of the 4xbb guy though.....................

Dudeskin8

I'm defo snap shoving here, in the past I would have slowly nit rolled whilst screaming inside but now I realise you get the big money by playing agressive and taking advantage of situations JUST like this.

All I see here is 7400 in the middle when it comes to you, I want that 7400 and will attempt to get it, it's FOUR handed for God's sake if you don't have the best hand here then it's just sick, this was just one of those times.

DannyMcs

Well "solid" might not have been the right word...often a pain in the jacksy, perhaps! That table went some way towards changing my opinion though, it really was shocking at times.

Anyway, yeah, total gut wrencher for Y_G but he played superbly and did nothing wrong in the exit hand imo, just one of those situations where you've got to take solace in the fact you played right but the cards fell wrong.

YOUNG_GUN

Ty dudes, thats what i was thinking a) money in the pot b) my hand 4 handed gotta be good right.... wrong lol

I was debating whther to not show results as i think some ppl may sub conciously put different cos im crushed

my verdict... I like my move and happy to go out fighting ftw as opposed to nit folding, my main doubt here is if i re-raise here probably looks alot stronger so could look like aces/kings, but i prefer the shove because it saves facing other marginal spots.

FWIW deuces i prob make move with 9s + in this spot and add AK

sikas

u played it fine mate, dont worry

c u in the next 1

YOUNG_GUN

TY sikas, was vul ur exit hand i was loving table till u sat on my left lol

i will try sat in again, next one i will see not sure at mo...

GaryQQQ

JJ is very difficult to play with your stack size and the bubble dynamic. If you have a bigger stack you can raise/fold much more easily, with a shorter stack it's a much easier open shove. It's hard to give an honest opinion knowing the result. I don't think your play is bad, you were definitely unlucky to run JJ into QQ here, however on this occasion I think a good argument can be made for conserving your stack with an open fold considering what's happening on the other table and the high cash value of not busting.

beaneh

Nothing wrong with this.

With the stacks on the other table an argument can be made for folding or for peeling and trying to bink a jack.

It's a mandatory stack off if I squeeze but not to anyone else as I was the only person playing super aggro.

UL gg.

YOUNG_GUN

TY beanhead, Yeah u was on super aggro lol did bluff u a few times tho to keep ticking over

I think the villain in this hand had open shoved a couple of times seemd like they wasnt defending their blinds strongly but had started to play against me a few times, so thought well ahead of his opening range, also thought i could get him of quite a few hands too

beaneh

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

TY beanhead, Yeah u was on super aggro lol did bluff u a few times tho to keep ticking over I think the villain in this hand had open shoved a couple of times seemd like they wasnt defending their blinds strongly but had started to play against me a few times, so thought well ahead of his opening range, also thought i could get him of quite a few hands too
Posted by YOUNG_GUN

If you think back to the last two tables though how many times had anyone put in a reraise that wasn't me? hardly any at all. 

This is why I think stacking off vs me was mandatory but not neccessarily against the others especially considering the implications of the sizes of the other tables stacks.

scotty77

considering the stacks on other table u can def make a fold.

depends on how much cashing for 280 or so means to your BR.  if it was a big big boost then I def fold with the 4-5bb stacks.

TommyD

Nothing wrong with the shove.  To be fair nothing wrong with folding if you want to make sure of the cash.  With that many people short there would probably be a couple of quick casualties after the bubble bursts so you have potentially a big ladder situation.

Can't really say too much more than what has been said previously.  How active was the original raiser?  Was he opening a lot?

grantorino

Well played imo, The bubble is where you can hoover up chips from weaker players, you should be playing aggro enough that JJ is an easy stack off

YOUNG_GUN

Right on the bankroll thought would make a big difference to min cash would have practically doubled it, but its just not how i play anymore it was pretty gutting at the time, but i go for the win in any tournament now this time it didnt pay of but im sure it will do next time

The villain hadnt been overly aggressive as beaneh was doing all that, but had played against me a few times shoving over my raises, i reckon queens is problably the bottom end he would call with there but hey ho

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

Well played imo, The bubble is where you can hoover up chips from weaker players, you should be playing aggro enough that JJ is an easy stack off
Posted by grantorino

Don't mistake elite 50/60 runner tourneys with the sort that this concept applies to, which generally have 1k+ runners and still number in the hundreds when the bubble's about to burst. Those tournaments (world series being a classic example) is where you have to kick into gear and look to steal as much as you can. This is a serious tourney with limited runners and we have 9 remaining- there's very few mugs about now, and from what I can tell- none at this table. It's a lot tougher to 'hoover up chips from weaker players' when there are none.

However, when there are weak and shortstacked players at the other table- you can let them bust out before making your move. Laddering does play a big part in tournaments, even top pros will use the laddering principle at times when they're comfortable.

What I wouldn't agree with is folding if you're short and trying to squeeze into the money that way. Then, take the aggressive stand and try for the double up to stand a chance of winning. With your chipstack you still have a great shot at winning if you fold this. The reward doesn't quite match the risk in this spot for me.

debdobs_67

Yeah in this situation Young Gun youve played this perfectly imo as the 7+k in the pot when you shove is well worth taking when it is only a 4 handed table.Just soooo ul to run it into an overpair here xxx

grantorino

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : Don't mistake elite 50/60 runner tourneys with the sort that this concept applies to, which generally have 1k+ runners and still number in the hundreds when the bubble's about to burst. Those tournaments (world series being a classic example) is where you have to kick into gear and look to steal as much as you can. This is a serious tourney with limited runners and we have 9 remaining- there's very few mugs about now, and from what I can tell- none at this table. It's a lot tougher to 'hoover up chips from weaker players' when there are none. However, when there are weak and shortstacked players at the other table- you can let them bust out before making your move. Laddering does play a big part in tournaments, even top pros will use the laddering principle at times when they're comfortable. What I wouldn't agree with is folding if you're short and trying to squeeze into the money that way. Then, take the aggressive stand and try for the double up to stand a chance of winning. With your chipstack you still have a great shot at winning if you fold this. The reward doesn't quite match the risk in this spot for me.
Posted by DeucesLive

Whats the buy in for this £110 (Im honestly not sure)? does that make it elite? And  some prob satted in, there will still likely be weak tight scared money on the bubble. Says somewhere in this thread that only 1 player seemed to be 3betting

Look we have 20BB and JJ four handed. Theres no guarantee the 8BB stacks will bust soon, unless villain is opening an extremely tight range its a clear shove imo, especially with the call in between.

If you are folding JJ to anopen do you think villain should fold QQ to the shove?

Edit: Im not sure how hoovering up chips will be difficult if you can open and people will think about folding JJ

splashies

I have to say well done on having the balls to play that hand aggressively, it's definitely a strong point of your game. Keep going and your time will come!

dylan12

I spoke with DOHHHHHHH about this hand yesterday and I 100% do not shove in your situation tbh. JJ says that your a good player and "up and coming" and will do well in the future which is great to hear. In order to do well in the future though you need to increase your BR significantly and when a min cash virtually doubles your BR then for me you need to be sensible in these situations. With the stacks on the other tables you are basically locked in for the min cash so you could have achieved that easily and you still have a great stack in play in order to go FTW after the bubble bursts and each ladder achieved is a massive boost for both your BR and your poker future. 

 

TommyD

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

Right on the bankroll thought would make a big difference to min cash would have practically doubled it, but its just not how i play anymore it was pretty gutting at the time, but i go for the win in any tournament now this time it didnt pay of but im sure it will do next time The villain hadnt been overly aggressive as beaneh was doing all that, but had played against me a few times shoving over my raises, i reckon queens is problably the bottom end he would call with there but hey ho
Posted by YOUNG_GUN

Going to leave the discussion about BR of min cashing aside for others to get into.

I think this is more marginal than it first appears.  If Da Bean is reshoving/reraising a lot the villain here probably has tightened their opening range if Beaneh is still yet to act.  88+ AQ+ would be my blind stab in the dark having not watched the table or know the player.  Makes it tighter and you will probably hate a call but shove is still fine.

scrumdown

me p ersonaly young gun had have folded on the bubble that raise u got to think your behind just got unlucky u run into queens can see why u called u win that pot your in a good positon to win the tournement

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : Whats the buy in for this £110 (Im honestly not sure)? does that make it elite? And  some prob satted in, there will still likely be weak tight scared money on the bubble. Says somewhere in this thread that only 1 player seemed to be 3betting Look we have 20BB and JJ four handed. Theres no guarantee the 8BB stacks will bust soon, unless villain is opening an extremely tight range its a clear shove imo, especially with the call in between. If you are folding JJ to anopen do you think villain should fold QQ to the shove? Edit: Im not sure how hoovering up chips will be difficult if you can open and people will think about folding JJ
Posted by grantorino

When I say 'elite' field, I mean a small field with a high buyin- and by sky standards, 110 is a high buyin. It's certainly the biggest regular tournament offered.

To give an example to show what I mean, let's imagine we're on the primo bubble- 30 paid, with a mincash around 90 and a win around 3500 (I think that's roughly the payout structure). Now, if you go from a mincash to winning, you're talking about a near 40x increase- which is substantial. The payouts are very top heavy, whether you satellite in or not- 90 is unlikely to be a gamechanging increase to your bankroll, and even if you quietly ladder to 10th, the amount only goes up to like 110 or so- still not much. So there's nothing to be gained by playing for a primo mincash, and in this spot- I 100% reshove with the jacks and take the race, knowing by winning you give yourself a great shot at FTing and getting into the big cash prizes.

This scenario is very different- a mincash (8th) is around 200 or so, with the win being around 2k? I have no idea what first prize is here, but I can't imagine it being more than 2k, someone can correct me if you know the payout structure. Assuming that's the case, the increase from mincash to winning is 10x- nothing like as big. Cashing in these 'elite' fields is the primary goal, IMO- especially if you can do it with a still playable stack. If you take your flip here, you've still got a tough job ahead, it's not going to get any easier. 

The dynamic when the bubble is spread over 5+ tables is very, very different to two shorthanded tables on the bubble. A lot of people will indeed go into fold mode on a wider bubble, knowing someone else will be eliminated soon- you can easily take advantage of that. Not so much on a shorthanded bubble, it'll be more aggressive- the shortstacks know they can't just sit and let themselves blind away (which will happen quite quickly) and will most likely have a trainwreck before long.

Fair play to you for making the correct mathematical play, and having the balls to do it- but I think when a mincash doubles your bankroll, put 'correct' poker on the backburner. Get into the cash, then you can relax and play a bit more freely, the ones that can afford to take those risks are much better rolled for it, and can happily buy in direct to 110 tourneys.

Oh, and QQ is definitely a call here- it's almost on the marginal side, but QQ is dominating far too many reshoving hands, especially with 3k already invested, to fold. If he turns over AA/KK then so be it, if he turns AK then you take the flip. The gap between QQ and JJ in terms of calling power is huge, IMO.

N1CK

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

I spoke with DOHHHHHHH about this hand yesterday and I 100% do not shove in your situation tbh. JJ says that your a good player and "up and coming" and will do well in the future which is great to hear. In order to do well in the future though you need to increase your BR significantly and when a min cash virtually doubles your BR then for me you need to be sensible in these situations. With the stacks on the other tables you are basically locked in for the min cash so you could have achieved that easily and you still have a great stack in play in order to go FTW after the bubble bursts and each ladder achieved is a massive boost for both your BR and your poker future.   
Posted by dylan12

great post

N1CK

if this was me and i had your BR i would fold KINGS here just to get the cash then play for the win, Dylan hits it on the head imo