Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

if this was me and i had your BR i would fold KINGS here just to get the cash then play for the win, Dylan hits it on the head imo
Posted by N1CK

You both mean flat call and set mine right?

Not fold? ..... (just making sure)

N1CK

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : You both mean flat call and set mine right? Not fold? ..... (just making sure)
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

yeah for the price you can call, but i dont really wanna stick any more chips in without hitting a jack, when he shoves pre ok he could take it down but it dont guarantee him a cash,

i wouldn't even say just folding the jacks pre was bad considering how passive i would play them and being 3 way

TommyD

Didn't want to get into the BR stuff but set mine with Kings?!?!?  4 Handed?!?!?!?

Right, if the BR jump is such a consideration let's do this properly like it's a VLV satellite bubble or something.  If you're main objective is now to cash as we are on the bubble, we have 2 or 3 super shorties and we are a mid stack then you are time out folding everything, INCLUDING ACES.

Either go all the way one way or play without BR considerations.  If we timeout fold everything (oh for H4H) we are 99% sure to cash correct?  Folding everything is the most likely way to ensure a cash.

As I stated before I think this decision with jacks is a lot tighter than it is on face value but that is nothing to do with the BR situation.  Regarding flatting with Kings I assume you are making a stop and go play on any non ace board?  Or are you really set mining?

N1CK

with the kings was making a point more than anything else, saying calling to set mine kings is just erm....well,
his bankroll here is a HUGE factor on how he plays this hand infact it should be the only one.

the point is he shoves and tid he dont guarantee doubling his roll, he shoves and gets called he is prolly 60/40   dog at best vs the range that should call , and if he had KK he would be 60/40 fav i think

but hey its his money and he cares more about winning than doubling his roll then hes done nothing wrong

N1CK

some1 should post all the chip stacks from both tables and the prizes then run it through icm see what that says

pod1

at the time yg went out chip stacks were about   goodylad 22k andy8.8k me 9,2k bar9.5k dannymcs 32k on our table ps whats icm?

grantorino

ICM measures $EV rather than chip EV so takes account of bubble, prize structure etc. If someone ran this through an ICM calculator it will tell you the equity you need to make getting it in profitable

Nick, if we are 60/40 dog to calling range can we not shove atc here, assuming villain opens a reasonable range?

I'm not sure that bankroll argument stands up, like he's not relying on cashing in the tournament and if 200 makes a big difference to him bigger prizes make a bigger difference. I've no problem with someone nitting it up and folding to the money if its a huge deal to them, but advice here on a poker forum should be for the biggest +$EV move.

Also, if this hand was posted as CO opens to 3100, sb calls, hero ? I doubt there would be as many people advocating folds

pod1

thank you grantino, i got an old fx 100 calculater will that do it!!!! seriously where can you find this?

grantorino

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

thank you grantino, i got an old fx 100 calculater will that do it!!!! seriously where can you find this?
Posted by pod1

google is your friend

N1CK

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

ICM measures $EV rather than chip EV so takes account of bubble, prize structure etc. If someone ran this through an ICM calculator it will tell you the equity you need to make getting it in profitable Nick, if we are 60/40 dog to calling range can we not shove atc here, assuming villain opens a reasonable range? I'm not sure that bankroll argument stands up, like he's not relying on cashing in the tournament and if 200 makes a big difference to him bigger prizes make a bigger difference. I've no problem with someone nitting it up and folding to the money if its a huge deal to them, but advice here on a poker forum should be for the biggest +$EV move. Also, if this hand was posted as CO opens to 7500, btn calls, hero ? I doubt there would be as many people advocating folds
Posted by grantorino

if this was a $2 fo and the bubble was $6 or watever then its a different story, he can pass this spot and the bubble will prolly burst in next few hands, hes got lock on some good cash now he can go all guns blazing, the last cash spot is huge in comparison to his roll,

if you have a $50,000 roll and you freeroll into the same situation as this and its the bubble or 50k what would you do? and dont say its not the same because its all relative to what you play

grantorino

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : if this was a $2 fo and the bubble was $6 or watever then its a different story, he can pass this spot and the bubble will prolly burst in next few hands, hes got lock on some good cash now he can go all guns blazing, the last cash spot is huge in comparison to his roll, if you have a $50,000 roll and you freeroll into the same situation as this and its the bubble or 50k what would you do? and dont say its not the same because its all relative to what you play
Posted by N1CK

Nick, I said I have no problem with anyone making a decision to fold into the money. My point is that this is a poker forum and the advice here should be given as to what is the most +$EV move. Not which moves avoid variance or lock in a prize.

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : Nick, I said I have no problem with anyone making a decision to fold into the money. My point is that this is a poker forum and the advice here should be given as to what is the most +$EV move. Not which moves avoid variance or lock in a prize.
Posted by grantorino

I have a problem with this part specifically- the most +EV move in this situation, in isolation, is to make the shove. I don't think anyone's debating that.

BUT, bankroll is a real issue!!! If you're in Vegas in the ME, you are going to play ULTRA tight on the bubble if your bankroll is like $500, because a mincash in Vegas is lifechanging as far as your bankroll is concerned- it's like winning the primo 3 times over! Saying you should disregard variance, prizepool and bankroll is ludicrous because it's a pivotal part of the consideration.

In this situation, there are shortstacks at risk. Point #1. His stack is extremely comfortable- he's in no danger. Point #2. His playing bankroll is around £200, a mincash doubles that. Point #3.

Looking at all that, and taking into account that this really isn't THAT much of a +EV spot, and a fold is the best move (IMO). If you have QQ, it becomes borderline, with a shove being too strong a move to ignore- but even then, I could just about accept a fold. AA and KK you simply have no choice but to shove.

MP33

I personaly would have folded pre-flop or maybe even flatted in the hope of hitting a J and possibly tripling up in this instance,  whereas normaly I would shove

As you said you had a min cash locked up and due to your BR this money could have gone a long way toward other tourney entries and  sats for bigger tourneys

When i satelited into the £220 DS from £2 I found it really hard to play my normal game and tightened up more than i should have, which I  have taken on board and learnt from. I was basically playing with scared money 
 
I,m sort of comparing that to your position on the bubble in this game. And that is the big difference - you were on the bubble. By the sounds of the other stacks on the other table, it wouldn,t have been to long before it burst and you would still have had a playable stack to go for the win then in the knowledge your not going away empty handed after coming so far from such a small outlay 

As i used to be addicted to gambling on casino games I have become a bit obsessed with BR management in Poker and this could explain my reasoning for my view on this hand -

If you had a BR of thousands it would have been a snap shove, but I,d take it as a learning experience and imo you can only improve  playing in these games with the better players on the site

Ps - As someone above said - its a shame the tables were not more evenly balanced in stack sizes , but I,m not sure how all that works

grantorino

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do? : I have a problem with this part specifically- the most +EV move in this situation, in isolation, is to make the shove. I don't think anyone's debating that. BUT, bankroll is a real issue!!! If you're in Vegas in the ME, you are going to play ULTRA tight on the bubble if your bankroll is like $500, because a mincash in Vegas is lifechanging as far as your bankroll is concerned- it's like winning the primo 3 times over! Saying you should disregard variance, prizepool and bankroll is ludicrous because it's a pivotal part of the consideration. In this situation, there are shortstacks at risk. Point #1. His stack is extremely comfortable- he's in no danger. Point #2. His playing bankroll is around £200, a mincash doubles that. Point #3. Looking at all that, and taking into account that this really isn't THAT much of a +EV spot, and a fold is the best move (IMO). If you have QQ, it becomes borderline, with a shove being too strong a move to ignore- but even then, I could just about accept a fold. AA and KK you simply have no choice but to shove.
Posted by DeucesLive

I'm out on this

I have no idea what a £200 cash means to OP. If someone shows shoving is bad fine.  Why is him gaining £200 far better than him sticking it in and maybe winning more maybe not that much better. What I am treally asking is why is him winning £200 + from tourney that good . It's a one off, proves nothing. I have no idea how good/bad OP is, but I just can't see why this money is so vital. No reflection on OP , I have never played with him. 

I'm going to leave it at that, lots of really good posters disagree with me, so I'm prob wrong

DeucesLive

the point of poker is to increase your bankroll. Guaranteeing a doubling of your bankroll is no small thing- this will probably allow him to move up one rung of the cash tables (instead of being rolled for 5/10, he's now ready for 10/20). He has £200 worth of satellites in order to try and get back into a big tournament like this if he chooses.

Anything that doubles your current bankroll is massive, and adds a lot of security to your game- allowing you to play more optimally within your limits. And bear in mind- he still has more than enough chips to fight for a higher place. He should have an incredibly good shot at 6th/7th, and if he plays well and gets a little luck he could easily get into the top 3 still. It makes sense to lock up that bankroll double before taking any risks, and I think advice based on bankroll is just as important, if not more than the poker advice itself.

Redmond on one of the shows said one of the most telling things that everyone should listen to- an average player, with only reasonable knowledge of the game but with good bankroll management will make more than a fantastic player without any bankroll management. 

YOUNG_GUN

MP33 how can u fold pre flop? I dont understand also scrumdown is saying something along the same lines... its a standard raise by someone, so unless he is tighter then greghogg i shud be well ahead of that

to be precise was £280 for min cash, i really never considered folding. at the time i did consider flatting but didnt want to see 1 of 2 overcards on the flop and was happy to take it down there and then

would i do the same in same situation for examply this week if i have a chance again Hell yeah! Would still be interested in whats the correct play here although i think its marginal.

Very Valid point Re: Bankroll everyone tho but Deuces even if binked alot i wouldnt jump straight to nl20 i will not move up levels in cash unless i crush the levels no point me taking shots when i dont think my cash game is up to scratch as my tourney

marston06

Hi, I am new to the forums, so had to introduce myself somewhere, and this thread was of interest to me!

Personally, I admire your bravery, and think in the long run (particularly having played on a few tables with you previously) this sort of move will pay off. I think, in a similar situation, the increase in bankroll would have caused me to err on the side of caution here, and I would have hoped I had the game to use the stack I had to get laddered a bit further. Basically, I agree completely with what deuces live has just posted. However, I don't think there really is a right and wrong move here, and, as I say, I think you have the game to win big in the not too distant future. So good luck to you mate!

YOUNG_GUN

Hi marston, Welcome to the forum bud have played u a few time so ty for posting

yeah such a grey move, cos shoving prob is good move but this time it wasnt, defo is a case for waiting for the bubble bursts but thats not how i roll lol

Been great discussion on here though as i expected hence why i posted it, hopefully ill have similar problem next time cos meen run deep and got the chance

i still reckon ill win a ME this year too not just binking small ones

DeucesLive

yea, I agree with you on the cash front- but I personally think if you have the game for 8+10NL, you have the game for 20NL. The first slight jump in ability comes at 30NL- I think 20 may even be softer than 8 and 10, so as soon as you have an adequate roll and are happy in your ability, I'd recommend going straight for 20NL.

Also, if you're playing in any of the 8pm MEs on the bubble, I snap shove that without an eyeblink, even the primo. It's only this particular prizepool and situation that would make me want to ladder, and I really think if you end up in a similar position you should think carefully- I do admire the bravery in going for the win and think it's the best way to play, but sometimes discretion is the better part of valour- the mincash would do too much to boost your poker career to ignore. The risk vs reward just isn't as great in a small number of runners like this.

YOUNG_GUN

great post Deuces there mate, FWIW i do dabble at nl20 seem to do better there but wont jump any higher at mo cos the bankroll. in past have played higher cash and done alright but i have cashed out in past but now take alot more serious as wanna try to build on my game.. on that note prob best  i min cash in this event

grantorino

With regard to the whole bankroll management thing.

If your roll is 200 , you should be taking cash instead of the seat (does sky let you do this?) if you are practising strict bankroll management. If not, you would be probably better off just playing smaller tournaments where you will make the best poker decisions theoretically rather than satting into a game where you are playing better players and might play too tight on bubble.

But you decided to take a shot, which is fine imo. Once I take that shot I'm just going for it, and making what I think is the most profitable play, and I think this is the correct way to play it when your taking a shot, its no big deal if you dont cash (I doubt you were relying on/expecting to cash). If someone else wants to nit into the money thats their decision, doesnt make sense to me though

Also young guns point about whether to move up is also very relevant. Bankroll management means nothing if you are losing. If I took a shot and won 50k Im not going to sit into 50/100 with durr etc just because I am rolled. Now Im sure he has the game to move up, but he should move up after building his roll by beating a level below, not because of a big tourney score which is always hugely reliant on luck

DeucesLive

^^^ read up more, I wouldn't advocate moving up levels you're not ready for. What I AM saying, is the low levels at sky are all about the same (with the exception of 4NL). As soon as you're able to, you should be looking to sit into 20NL if you have the game, and use that as your building block to move up.

You also can't take the cash instead of the seat (or I'd agree with this), but why not try and sat in? Satellites are there to give low BR players a chance to play with the big boys and test themselves, but that doesn't mean that once you're in contention for the money, you have to carry on acting like the money doesn't matter. Again, it's like if you satellite into vegas- you have to play real poker to get there, but once you get to the cash bubble if you don't nit up and scrape into the cash, you're either mad or have enough of a roll that cashing really wouldn't make a difference to you- and there's probably only a handful here who could honestly say that.

YOUNG_GUN

Its 280 for min cash and i have exactly that in account if that helps

sky does not let u transfer etc and i got in for £5.20

N1CK

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

With regard to the whole bankroll management thing. If your roll is 200 , you should be taking cash instead of the seat (does sky let you do this?) if you are practising strict bankroll management. If not, you would be probably better off just playing smaller tournaments where you will make the best poker decisions theoretically rather than satting into a game where you are playing better players and might play too tight on bubble. But you decided to take a shot, which is fine imo. Once I take that shot I'm just going for it, and making what I think is the most profitable play, and I think this is the correct way to play it when your taking a shot, its no big deal if you dont cash (I doubt you were relying on/expecting to cash). If someone else wants to nit into the money thats their decision, doesnt make sense to me though Also young guns point about whether to move up is also very relevant. Bankroll management means nothing if you are losing. If I took a shot and won 50k Im not going to sit into 50/100 with durr etc just because I am rolled. Now Im sure he has the game to move up, but he should move up after building his roll by beating a level below, not because of a big tourney score which is always hugely reliant on luck
Posted by grantorino

im not disagreeing with you because you clearly know what your talking about and all your other forum posts make alot of sense, , but i only butted into this thread after the op brought up his bankroll because i think its a very important point,  at the end of the day anyone can read this forum and they could get into a similar spot and it gives them something to think out,

im pretty sure if you sat into any event on sky you have to play and cant cash out the buyin otherwise i would have brought that up to,


 the op made his decision and stuck by it, hes happy with it so it was the correct decision for him

MP33

In Response to Re: Sky Roller Bubble time, 6/9 What would you do?:

MP33 how can u fold pre flop? I dont understand also scrumdown is saying something along the same lines... its a standard raise by someone, so unless he is tighter then greghogg i shud be well ahead of that to be precise was £280 for min cash, i really never considered folding. at the time i did consider flatting but didnt want to see 1 of 2 overcards on the flop and was happy to take it down there and then would i do the same in same situation for examply this week if i have a chance again Hell yeah! Would still be interested in whats the correct play here although i think its marginal. Very Valid point Re: Bankroll everyone tho but Deuces even if binked alot i wouldnt jump straight to nl20 i will not move up levels in cash unless i crush the levels no point me taking shots when i dont think my cash game is up to scratch as my tourney
Posted by YOUNG_GUN

Ok - maybe flat and see what comes out, but my main point is BR managment 

How long will it take you to double your roll if your playing the 5% rule?

It is a marginal decision , which is why I think its got so many different opinions on this thread

I,m not saying I,m right - I,m just just saying what I would have done in your position and circumstances regarding BR imo 

pod1

i must admit, i was in a very similar situation to yg, i to sat into this  because my br would even get close to buying in using 5% rule. and when i got down to 10 left i was just looking at the bubble, from there it would have been a "see what happens" would i have put jj down , yes i would, but im a nitty mother. was in the same situation yest in open, made the cash, but laddering in there was a waste of time until tt. so it was a lot more gohu. you just about double your money in the first 20 places of the cash so the odd place here or there is not reliavent. high roller was a case of a £5 stake= £300 in 1 place. any other payout structure jj for me was going in , this one for me woulda been a fold.   phil

rancid

I think you over complicating this hand.
for you to cash is equal to your whole bankroll

Ok if this is the case then play the hand like a cash hand with your bankroll on the line

yes ok -- you fold your JJ

to fold might seem a bit nit - but your main aim is to cash first as the jump in your bankroll is massive


If the cash meant nothing to your bankroll then a shove is fine, you will fold out most of his range and
if he turns over QQ then hey ho thats tourney poker

RaiseGame

6 out of nine / 4th best hand in hold em = all in .. over a period of time you'll win most of them, just unlucky to run into qq, thats well played i say right move wrong time .. thats poker eh alwaysa next time

goodylad21

YG you was on my table for about the 1st hour & half & was running all over the table - i never knew what your constant raising meant (which is a very good sign) lol !!

The table i was on when we was on the bubble had all nitted up apart from 2/5 players so you would of definately cashed - at the end of the day it all depends how much £200 is to your BR

GL YG dont think you will need it though.

Ps How old are you ???

YOUNG_GUN

Ty RaiseGame & goodylad for ur kind words, TBH half the time i didnt have it but others i did lol glad i confused someone

Im 23, £280 is good for bankroll but as JJ/ Dohhh knows not life changing from my background so not too big a deal still. I prob make same move in similar position, but well see next time see if that changes my mindset