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Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.
I've posted this in "another place" but to keep the momentum going after Tikay's post, here is another question for you to answer.
This occurred in a satellite for a £10 entry tournament so not exactly huge stakes, I know, but the principles are the same, independent of stakes.
6 players left, 5 seats available, 6th place gets his entry fee back (or thereabouts).
Blinds are 1K/2K.
Blinds increase every 7 minutes.
I’m not sure about the exact stack sizes but these are near enough:
UTG: 42K chip leader
HJ: 10K
CO: 14K
Button: 12K
SB: 18K
BB: 28K (me)
UTG min raises.
Everybody folds to me.
I have AA in the BB.
I have little information about the chip leader since we have only just got together on the final table and I have not come across him before.
What should I do?
This occurred in a satellite for a £10 entry tournament so not exactly huge stakes, I know, but the principles are the same, independent of stakes.
6 players left, 5 seats available, 6th place gets his entry fee back (or thereabouts).
Blinds are 1K/2K.
Blinds increase every 7 minutes.
I’m not sure about the exact stack sizes but these are near enough:
UTG: 42K chip leader
HJ: 10K
CO: 14K
Button: 12K
SB: 18K
BB: 28K (me)
UTG min raises.
Everybody folds to me.
I have AA in the BB.
I have little information about the chip leader since we have only just got together on the final table and I have not come across him before.
What should I do?
Comments
Yes in a structure like this, there is no real +EV move to make but at worst you are gonna bust in 6th and get your cash back. By making this move, should it succeed and you double through, you go well clear and can sit back and watch the fight from safety.
If he folds then at least you will be a comfortable second.
I have folded kings on occassion like this but was after 3 all ins, which meant regardless i was gonna cash..
I would expect the big stack to raise with any 2 on the cash bubble although being comfortable in your chip stack makes it harder to push as losing gives everyone else a seat but regardless I could not fold here.
I would shove, if he calls your an all in with a pair then your an 80% fav and just very unlucky if they hit their set.
Like you said 6th gets your money back so you can try again if you lose but 8 out of 10 times your going to win it so i'd be shoving there.
As this is a satelitte, I would call the min raise and see a flop. If an ace comes on a dry flop then you can play. If the flop is a wet one you can get away and fold.
I don't think you should fold preflop to a min raise from one player, but i would not get attached to the hand.
Why, this is easy, on the bubble and second in chips why take on the chip leader by pushing and putting your qualifing at jeopody.
THE AIM IS TO GET TO THE NEXT LEVEL NOT WIN THIS GAME.
I'm very sorry but I totally disagree with Hale. What's the point of entering a satelitte if you are willing to put it at risk by taking on the only person who could bust you, yes your an 80%fav, but how many times have we seen these hands cracked and then show up on the forum saying it's fixed.
If your happy to just get your money back dont play the satelitte and pay straight into the main tourney.
col
Sorry Hale, it was Norbit's statement i disagree with.
My apologies sir
col
I suppose the level affects your decision ultimately. Had this been the bubble on a world series main event seat then i wouldnt find the fold button quick enough.
A £3.00 sattelite for the open. All in every time.
The problem we all make is that we expect the chip leader to react the same way as if it were you in the same position. Unfortunately thats not always the case and upon reflection like merenovice says, he was new to him and this makes the decision expedentially more difficult and with only seconds to act it is a toughy but at the end of the day i'm still all in and praying the Poker Gods smile...........
A couple of people are gonna be AI soon let the blinds do the work.
What makes it a fold is that we have no history on the villain and we don't know if he is aware of satellite struture. If we had history, had seen he is a thinking player etc then easy all in.
Yes we are getting it in an 80pc fav but this is a scenario where we DON'T need to be getting it AT ALL. You play satellites to gain entry into the main event cheaply. Why risk an almost certain entry?
FOLD />>>>>>ALL IN >>>>>>> CALL
Oh and calling the min raise for a dry flop is so lol its untrue.
I'll keep this open for a while before I reveal my action, my thinking and the outcome (which is a bit irrelevant really).
Theres no need for you to go broke b4 the shorties.
One shortie is goin to have to make a stand very shortly so let them.
Re-raise all in pre flop. Simples. 8- />
Just to qualify my post, I would only consider folding if chip leader had shoved all-in first.
Flat calling his raise to see a flop would be the worst option.
So fold or re-raise all-in.
It's only fair since we all commented on his post.
Here are some of my thoughts at the time along with ideas that other people have previously contributed.
1. If I fold, will I be able to coast through and win a seat anyway?
Well, for me this was marginal. It seems likely that I should qualify if I fold but with a quick blind structure things can change pretty quickly with all the short stacks likely to be regularly shoving from this point onwards.
2. What is the chip leader likely to do if I go all-in?
I have no knowledge of the chip leader at all so this is pure guess work but my feeling would be that he min-raised so that he could call an all-in from any of the short-stacks but so that he could fold to me if I went all-in. This seemed a fairly logical interpretation of his move. If he had pushed all-in, I would have folded. If he didn't intend to fold to a re-raise from me (by far the 2nd biggest stack), then he should have gone all-in first.
3. Will I find a better spot?
Absolutely not. The chip leader will always have position on me so I will not be able to make moves on the short stacks without risking him going over the top of me.
4. What will the chip leader do in future?
Perhaps he will continually raise my big blind since he knows that I am the one least likely to give him action (as I have the most to lose by playing back at him).
What did I do???
Well, I shoved all-in.
The chip leader called with JJ and flopped a J and that was the end of my tournament.
Ouch.
I still feel it was the right move. Like you say, chips keep going backwards and forwards from here on in. Folding to victory was probably more dicey than calling here.
Satellites aren't about winning chips, it's all about surviving and laddering, especially on the bubble.
There are four stacks less than 10BB, when this type of situation arises, you have to have a strong will power to fold the Aces and have a good tournament strategy and realise if you call or go all in and get called, one in five times you will be disappointed, if you fold, you are still in a great position to succeed.
If this was a regular tournament bubble, I'd call every time, chips have more value than in satellites.
In a tourney, 6 left, 5 paid, if you were to win the hand, you will have half the chips in play and a great chance to at least get heads-up and earn more money.
In a satellite, 6 left, 5 paid, finishing 5th gets the same as finishing 1st so it's not worth risking your stack to win more chips when 20% of the time you'll go out 6th. If you were one of the shorter stacks, then yes you call but, 2nd/6 - I think you can give it a couple of rounds and see what happens.
The opening raiser minimum raised and I shoved all-in with the expectation that he would fold.
You are currently about a 95% chance to get through. By calling you are at most an 85% chance and could be a lot worse. The call is crazy - unlucky, but it was a very bad call.
Obviously, call against any other player.
PS: knowing the maths, the big stack could have moved with 27o and you would still have to fold!
I DIDN'T CALL - I went all-in with AA after a minimum raise from the big stack UTG - I have clearly stated that several times.
95% is a figure magicked out of the air - it has no mathematical foundation.
I couldn't be worse than 83% with AA.
Read the thread - you may then be able to revise your statement about a CRAZY call.
PS; against A6 you are more than 85%
Try not to lose more than enough chips that knocks you into going out and picking up the buy-in back as obviously qualifying for the open means alot to you. However if he has done this every hand does he truly have anything or is he just bullying.
Another thing worth mentioning here, pre-flop sitting with Ace Ace, what is beating you? Nothing, so why fold. If this was after the river and you had a Royal Flush and the oppenent made minimum rasie would you fold? i think not.
I don't know what "shorter" means in this context. If it means "better" then that is quite a rule that you have. Does it means that you would have done the same as the villain in this coup and called the all-in with JJ?
I wouldn't say that qualifying for the Open "meant a lot to me" - it's a cheap buy-in fun tournament but qualifying for it was the object of the exercise when I entered the satellite.
As already stated, it was early at the final table and I hadn't been playing with the villain so I had no idea how he was playing - I certainly don't know if he had been making this move regularly or "every hand".
There is a massive difference in folding AA pre-flop and folding the absolute nuts after the river (which would get you disqualified in any reasonable card room if detected).
The AA can be beaten and regularly is. As a rough rule of thumb, most people would say that the AA will win 4 out of 5 times although this is a conservative estimate. A royal flush after the river (or at any point) cannot be beaten at all - it is the absolute stone cold nuts.
Does this incluse K 10, J Q, A J. Etc.
With an all in call with 9,9 you are likely to be up against 2 overs at best.
This means your happy to put every tournament you play in on the line at being a 50/50 at best?
Does this also mean on a cash bubble of any tournament and there are 2 all ins in front of you, you will still call with the 9,9?
What i meant about the AA pre-flop thing was that pre-flop no card will be beating you, maybe level with you but no beating. Yes it may get beaten later on, but i always like to think i play while ahead and fold when behind.
From the understanding i had of this post, i may have read it wrong, it was a minimum raise, therefore i would suggest depending on how long i have played with the opponent, as the origional poster said in reply to me he hadnt played with him long, he would maybe have 2 high cards, unlikley to be paired(i rekon would have been a bigger bet) and chances are he then has 2 cards he can hit which makes up to 6 outs, this allows my thinking to then play my 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK or AA. Also knowing that 4 other have folded before me may have had one of his outs E.g. K2(a hand that i personally hate.
The way i learned to play the game as said above, play when you think you are ahead, fold if you think you are behind.
I'm pushing, and for a number of reasons.
1) It's a fact that your ahead (or tied with AA in that VERY UNLIKLY situation)
2) His range is wide but in my opinion likley to be a pocket pair leaving him on a 2 outer.
3) It only takes one of your oponents to double up and you start to have to compete with larger stacks and worse hands.
4) Even with a hand the chip leader may not want to call your all in as he ends up with 7BB and loses his easy cruise to a tourney seat.
5) With the buy-in already secured (although obviously this isn't what your playing for) there is no loss to be made
I just know i couldn't put them down in this situation against his range, although i do think the argument of just folding your way to a seat makes logical sense with 3 players on between 5 & 7 BB's. What can i say im a sucker for those American Airlines lol
P.S with regards to above post
"he would maybe have 2 high cards, unlikley to be paired(i rekon would have been a bigger bet) and chances are he then has 2 cards he can hit which makes up to 6 outs, this allows my thinking to then play my 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KK or AA. Also knowing that 4 other have folded before me may have had one of his outs E.g. K2(a hand that i personally hate."
I don't really get your thinking. The min raise is a pocket pair indicator likley to be 10's and above as he is trying to show weakness UTG to induce someone to come over the top. If he bets this heavily then maybe thinking AK AQ but with this bet im thinking JJ QQ or KK, im still playing back as i think im ahead but im not shocked to see him flip any 1 of the 3 i've mentioned. I haven't read the post to see what our HERO did but from what i can gather from the post at the top of this page the guy flipped jacks. If he hits a 2 outer on you then what can you do but take your buy-in and run again on another sat
dav1964, I don't understand what you are saying.
I am always > 80% favourite pre-flop with AA against any hand if it comes to a showdown - I have no idea where your 50/50 comments come from.
Also, the UTG player is likely to lay down his hand so the hand odds aren't the whole story. I have plenty of fold equity and the UTG should know that I wouldn't be risking my tournament with a speculative hand.