Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.

bobstheboy

It has been said before but I will repeat it.
 
The purpose of this tournament was to qualify for the main event. With only one more player to be knocked out and a relatively large stack compared to others at the table, you have to fold.

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.:

It has been said before but I will repeat it.   The purpose of this tournament was to qualify for the main event. With only one more player to be knocked out and a relatively large stack compared to others at the table, you have to fold.
Posted by bobstheboy

That's a very strong opinion.

oynutter

i think you made the right move here merenovice---anyone with more than half a braincell would have folded against your push and with his stack you couldnt really put him on a quarter of one---wp--ul---his call was completely stupid with JJ

Talon

   I think that an important issue to note is how this hand will affect subsequent hands. If you fold they will not know what you have folded but you will. If you cant go with AA then what will get your chips into the pot. The other important thing is that unless you are on the button then the big stack has position on you in every hand, so you would really be running scared of putting chips into any pot no matter how small.  The odds say that shoving in that situation is the best thing to do but as we all 2 outers do hit and hurt us.  For me i would be shoving all day long but it is interesting to think about the subsequent hands if you fold

bobstheboy

It is a strong opinion.

I would push with AA  99% of the time. In the situation you found yourself in you would win most of the time against an all in - but you run the minimal risk of being out flopped.

Why take that risk when you know the other players chip stacks and can be almost certain you will qualify with careful play ?  Only you know what you folded and it certainly would not affect my play if I got AA again. Every hand has to be played with all final outcomes thought out. Like I said earlier, the aim was to qualify first and win second, why jepodise that position needlessly ?

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.:

It is a strong opinion. I would push with AA  99% of the time. In the situation you found yourself in you would win most of the time against an all in - but you run the minimal risk of being out flopped. Why take that risk when you know the other players chip stacks and can be almost certain you will qualify with careful play ?  Only you know what you folded and it certainly would not affect my play if I got AA again. Every hand has to be played with all final outcomes thought out. Like I said earlier, the aim was to qualify first and win second, why jepodise that position needlessly ?
Posted by bobstheboy

I'm getting confused now.
I did push with AA so you seem to be agreeing with my play here.

The only aim is to qualify - coming first has no extra value at all.

I would be unlikely to ever find a spot even remotely as good as this later in the tournament. With quickly increasing blinds and the likely shove fest from smaller stacks to come, if I fold I would be relying on a clash between two other players (and the shorter stack losing) before I get blinded away (or calling a shove myself and hoping that my hand wins).

As said in a post above, I am always out of position to the big stack so I can never make a positive move without putting my place in jeopardy.

fitzer14

i have folded many times in this situation and still would(main priority to qualify) wether it be short stacked or c/l

bobstheboy

I will make myself clear - I hope !

I said I would go all in after a min raise 99% of the time and I would. This is the 1% when I wouldn't. The min raiser was the chip leader so if you were out flopped you would be out of the tournament. If the low stack had min raised I would have pushed, at least I could live to fight another day if beaten.

It was odds on that the short stacks would clash before you were blinded away, so my original opinion stands.

It is only an opinion though !

MereNovice

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.:

I will make myself clear - I hope ! I said I would go all in after a min raise 99% of the time and I would. This is the 1% when I wouldn't. The min raiser was the chip leader so if you were out flopped you would be out of the tournament. If the low stack had min raised I would have pushed, at least I could live to fight another day if beaten. It was odds on that the short stacks would clash before you were blinded away, so my original opinion stands. It is only an opinion though !
Posted by bobstheboy

Opinions are good.
That's exactly what these threads are for.
My opinion differs from yours but the thread was started to get other people's opinions.
Thankyou for clarifying - I genuinely wasn't clear what your point was.
Posts are much more helpful if they contain some reasoning behind the opinion rather than just making statements like "fold, fold, fold, you donk". :-)

chirker

i think all in on this occasion is the best move, but folding and protecting your stack is not a bad move. i think it's all down to personal preference. if you got through then you made the right decision.

namesb0nd

just fold if you want to make the tourney,why even bother risking it when you are in such a comfortable position.

BeastieBoy

I had a similar situation in a satellite today, but with KK.  Down to final 3, 1st place gets a seat at the next level, 2nd gets 2x the buy-in to the satellite.  I was trying to remember this forum discussion as my timer was running down!  TBH, I never seriously configured folding.  I was certain I have the best hand and put the other players on under-pairs or A+ good kicker.  The BB went on to take 1st place.

SB	Small blind		150.00	150.00	8667.50
BB	Big blind		300.00	450.00	19747.50
	Your hole cards	K K
BeastieBoy	Raise		900.00	1350.00	6235.00
SB	All-in		8667.50	10017.50	0.00
BB	Call		8517.50	18535.00	11230.00
BeastieBoy	All-in		6235.00	24770.00	0.00
SB	Show	7 7
BB	Show	Q A
BeastieBoy	Show	K K
Flop
		3 7 8
Turn
		9
River
		9
SB	Win	Full House, 7s and 9s	24770.00		24770.00

oynutter

tbh beastie, the case for folding here is ten times stronger than the case for merenovice, you have to assume one of them has a big ace, so you are putting your tourney on the line against two opponents when any ace on the board will probably knock you out---also you can assume one of them will lose and ladder you into 2nd place--i would have folded here--you had all the information you needed ---whereas merenovice was probably convinced that his move would get through, also, if you are willing to call an all in here, you really should have pushed first hoping for just one call (or none) ---hope this helps--gl

BeastieBoy

So this should be an easy fold for me every time?  Reasons why I didn't fold include:

-  I need to win the tourney to get the seat to the next level.  If 1st and 2nd place both got seats then I probably would've folded.
-  I was the short-stack and susceptible to bullying by the other 2 players.
-  I felt both players were better than me and would be able to out play me post flop on a lot of hands.
-  Unless someone has AA my hand is favourite pre flop.

Is this flawed thinking on my part?

With the blinds only at 150/300 I never considered pushing all-in straight away.  Would this have been my best option?  It may have reduced the number of opponents to just 1.

(Apologies to the OP for hijacking this thread).

jakally

The AA situation is a fold for me.

No benefit really in calling.

You can't knock anyone out, and there are enough players shorter stacked to make me think I will get through by sitting tight.

I also think chip leader should fold when you shove tho.

The KK situation is a bit different.

Given there is only 1 seat, you are probably mostly going to be 50% + to win the hand, and you figure that if you win the hand you are hot fave to take it,.

Guess it's a call.

MereNovice

I'm probably playing this the same way as BeastieBoy.
That may sound perverse seeing as I said that I would fold AA to a HU all-in in my initial post but call with KK in a 3-way pot here!
The situation is rather different to the OP because the prize structure is different, i.e. there is only one seat available with a smaller prize for 2nd place. I guess it depends how happy you are to settle for the 2nd prize.
Like BeastieBoy I think that it is likely that the two other hands are a decent ace and a smaller pair - it's certainly a reasonable assumption at the time (and turned out to be right).

Using an odds calculator, the pre-flop odds in this case are:
KK 55.7%
77 19.5%
AQ 24.6%
Split 0.2%
(If the KK is up against two decent aces it's over 70% favourite and if it's up against two smaller pairs it's over 65% favourite).

The implications of not being in the pot are that the big stack wins the hand and has a stack of 40K to our 6K and it is VERY hard to come back from that. Because it was the big stack calling (and not making the initial all-in), I would put him on a strong hand and therefore think there is a good chance of him winning the hand.
Remember that if the KK beats the 77 and loses to the AQ that BeastieBoy still gets 2nd place as he had the bigger stack going into the hand.

oynutter

hi lads---i forgot to take into account beating the 77 and still getting 2nd place here, but still, in a three way pot like this, it remains just a coin toss ( the kk is only a very marginal favorite here)----beastie has got 20 bb's back---he had no idea which of the oppponents was favorite to win if he folded---but he could be pretty sure one of them had a big ace, and it's a good guess the other had a pair-----so he could figure out he was only really 50/50 to win the pot---this is why i would wait for a better position, hopefully in a heads up situation---ask yourselves if you would be willing to take a coin flip on whether or not you stay in the tournament here---personally i would wait---but then, if you don't fancy your heads up game, it's a much harder decision

  also in this situation i would definitely have pushed all in first---3x bb here is only encouraging a big hand to shove

BeastieBoy

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.:

Remember that if the KK beats the 77 and loses to the AQ that BeastieBoy still gets 2nd place as he had the bigger stack going into the hand.
Posted by MereNovice

Actually I had the smallest stack on the table so if the AQ had won he would've knocked us both out and I would've been awarded 3rd place due to the chip count.  I guess this makes my all-in call a slightly worse play.

However, if my read tells me I've a 50-50 chance of winning the hand and if winning means I treble my stack sure I must call everytime, right?

oynutter

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite.:

In Response to Re: Folding AA on the bubble in a satellite. : Actually I had the smallest stack on the table so if the AQ had won he would've knocked us both out and I would've been awarded 3rd place due to the chip count.  I guess this makes my all-in call a slightly worse play. However, if my read tells me I've a 50-50 chance of winning the hand and if winning means I treble my stack sure I must call everytime, right?
Posted by BeastieBoy

in the earlier stages beastie, calling a 50/50 to treble your stack is a great move, but this a satelite bubble, so trebling your stack is not necessarily the most important consideration here, personally i think survival is more important, this is why i would sit tight and hope the other small stack loses tha all in, giving you a shot at top spot and at least cashing, cant blame you for calling really, it is extremely tempting with kk--you did have a chance of being 70% favorite too, so it was in no way a bad call, but the strong possibility of it being a coin toss would have put me off here

LadyFingrs

shove, only fold if one opponent has like 2BB's or less