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The Double Main & Mini

unknown_usernameunknown_username
edited September 2011 in Poker Chat
great idea...my money is on elsadog.and i think every1's will be aswell lol
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    I was just wondering whether sky-bet would take bets on which players people think are likely to do the double on main and mini for the extra prize?

    Who would be your choices to do the double?

    My choice would be Made4game....
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  • MachkaMachka
    edited August 2011
    made4game will do it first I think.

    edit: lol, Dan snuck his answer in while I was writing this!
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    In Response to The Double Main & Mini:
    I was just wondering whether sky-bet would take bets on which players people think are likely to do the double on main and mini for the extra prize? Who would be your choices to do the double?
    Posted by Quietly1

    Doing both is going to be extremely difficult because of the timing of the two tournaments. They both reach the final stages at approximately the same time. Anyone hoping to achieve both will probably be playing short-handed poker or H2H on two tables. Getting to that stage will be difficult enough without the added difficulties in the late stages.


    I have no idea who will do it, my guess is it won't happen. However if it does happen it will probably be on a Wednesday.

    edit:  I was writing this whilst the other posts were being posted. I do of course bow to Dan's expert opinion  LOL
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  • made4gamemade4game
    edited August 2011
    it will deffo be difficult,very very difficult but it is do-able....my money still on u alan...and aaron..are u drunk???
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    In Response to The Double Main & Mini : Doing both is going to be extremely difficult because of the timing of the two tournaments. They both reach the final stages at approximately the same time. Anyone hoping to achieve both will probably be playing short-handed poker or H2H on two tables. Getting to that stage will be difficult enough without the added difficulties in the late stages. I have A GOOD idea who will do it, my guess is it WILL BE ME.
    Posted by elsadog
    FYP xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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  • KeevilKeevil
    edited August 2011
    My money would b on Dan..... Not only are you running well but u get away with playing the ME's everynight of the week! 

    If only i had a wife like yours... ;)

    Great idea 
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  • made4gamemade4game
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    My money would b on Dan..... Not only are you running well but u get away with playing the ME's everynight of the week!  If only i had a wife like yours... ;) Great idea 
    Posted by Keevil
    lol are u drunk aswell like aaron?????????????????????????
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  • delaney09delaney09
    edited August 2011
    i unfortunately think it won't be a regular just have a funny feeling it will be done by someone that appears out of no where then goes back to non existent

    i hope i am wrong though
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini : lol are u drunk aswell like aaron?????????????????????????
    Posted by made4game

    As you can see mr dan you really should believe in yourself more - you Can do it!
     TKP FTW Go Dan!
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  • MP33MP33
    edited August 2011
    Jamie Burland is gonna have a pop at it as Sam Rasavi put a bet to him the other night on 865

    Think he,s got until the end of the year
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011
    I'll give you 500/1 on any player you wanna back. 

    It will never happen
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  • EyemanEyeman
    edited August 2011
    500/1 seems about right.

    Assume half the main event field play in the mini. And assume 300 entrants to the mini. 
    Basically every other night the winner of the Main will also be in the mini.
    If we assume no skill bias that gives that winner a 300/1 chance of winning the mini, so approximately 600/1 of winning both. Take into account a skill bias and 500/1 is possibly generous.
    I think it will happen one day, and it's as likely to be a total fish donk on a heater as a regular winner such as Elsa or Dan.
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  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited August 2011
    I agree with delaney09, it's possible that a well known regular like Dan or Alan might do it, I hope they both do. Much more likely imo it'll be some little known guy who'll come from nowhere and run in uber-hot god mode one evening to bink them both.

    It'll be interesting to see what effect the jackpot has if it runs for a long time without being won, say 2 years and gets absolutely huge.
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  • splashiessplashies
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    500/1 seems about right. Assume half the main event field play in the mini. And assume 300 entrants to the mini.  Basically every other night the winner of the Main will also be in the mini. If we assume no skill bias that gives that winner a 300/1 chance of winning the mini, so approximately 600/1 of winning both. Take into account a skill bias and 500/1 is possibly generous. I think it will happen one day, and it's as likely to be a total fish donk on a heater as a regular winner such as Elsa or Dan.
    Posted by Eyeman
    they are two independant situations, so its actually (300/1 x 300/1) that you win both on same night, which is 90000/1.
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  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini : they are two independant situations, so its actually (300/1 x 300/1) that you win both on same night, which is 90000/1.
    Posted by splashies
    Yep, 300 players have that 90000/1 chance, so the overall chance of any un-named player in the field doing it remains at 300/1 each evening.

    Put it this way; somebody will win the ME, that person has a 300/1 chance of winning the mini too. If the field size in main and mini was always 300 you would expect the jackpot to be won once in every 300 days on average, each player having a 90000/1 chance each time they enter assuming equal skill levels.

    Looking at current average field sizes I predict the jackpot will be won about once a year. 
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    In reality the odds are much less than 300/1 of winning either tournament. The difficulty is doing both on the same night. Apart from the obvious luck required to actually win a tournament (every winner gets lucky at some point in the tournament) the added complication of having two tournaments running side by side should not be underestimated.

    A few years ago I ''did the double'' on the Tribeca network. This consisted of the two major mtt's each evening - the 12k and 7k rebuys. The big difference to this, was that they were roughly the same size field and structure but one hour apart. When the first tournament reached the latter stages the other was at the bubble stage. When H2H in the first I was able to concentrate on that having gone through the bubble in the second. Trying to cope with both tournaments running almost side by side will prove extremely difficult on Sky, particularly when it gets down to 4 players or less on each.

    It will definitely need some exceptional run-good IMO. 
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  • GaryQQQGaryQQQ
    edited August 2011
    PS Does the Roller/Mini Roller double count for the jackpot?

    If it does that makes a jackpot win more likely than we think due to the small field sizes, also there are 2 chances each evening to win the jackpot when a roller is held, ie roller/me.
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  • GlenelgGlenelg
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    Jamie Burland is gonna have a pop at it as Sam Rasavi put a bet to him the other night on 865 Think he,s got until the end of the year
    Posted by MP33
    2 Guys1Acct got to the low teens in both the other night I noticed!  Think he was chip leader in main as well.
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    PS Does the Roller/Mini Roller double count for the jackpot? If it does that makes a jackpot win more likely than we think due to the small field sizes, also there are 2 chances each evening to win the jackpot when a roller is held, ie roller/me.
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    Dont think it does count , i think its The normal nightly 8pm ME and the 8.15pm MINI xx
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  • splashiessplashies
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini : Yep, 300 players have that 90000/1 chance, so the overall chance of any un-named player in the field doing it remains at 300/1 each evening. Put it this way; somebody will win the ME, that person has a 300/1 chance of winning the mini too. If the field size in main and mini was always 300 you would expect the jackpot to be won once in every 300 days on average, each player having a 90000/1 chance each time they enter assuming equal skill levels. Looking at current average field sizes I predict the jackpot will be won about once a year. 
    Posted by GaryQQQ
    Yes i was refering to JJ offering odds of 500/1 for a named player to do it. Which is not good value.

    Out of interest how many players do yo reckon play both out of lets say 300 field in both? Because quite a few of the 1's who play mini do not paly main..

    I reckon its only about 100-130 players who do actually play both events.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011
    It's great value!!

    My odds are over a period of time, not just 1 night.......

    I play prob 4/5 main events a month, and double up with the mini prob 1/2 of those times, and even I would have a few quid on myself if someone offered 500/1.

    Any takers? - Or givers? ;)
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  • bugaloobugaloo
    edited August 2011
    id take some 500-1 would lay me a fifty?


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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    500/1 dohhh ?? id take some of that if it were available , in fact id take 500/1 and pick 10 players who i felt were capable of poss doin this by the end of the year.
    Heres my top ten
    1 Elsadog
    2 Tommyd
    3 Made4game
    4 Supersnedd
    5 Scotty77
    6 Bazbazbaz
    7 Glitterbabe
    8 Lol_raise
    9 dohhhhhhh
    10 debdobs_67 ;)))))
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  • SolarCarroSolarCarro
    edited August 2011
    Sky's money is safe, imo it will never be won

    The consolation £1k nay be though

    Dave
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  • dylan12dylan12
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    Sky's money is safe, imo it will never be won The consolation £1k nay be though Dave
    Posted by SolarCarro
    I had forgotten about that...
    When I won the Open I was on final 2 tabs of the mini at same time, I could have folded easily to the FT and got that bonus as I was 2nd in chips and clear from the rest of the pack...felt like a good idea to 4bet shove K9o into the chip leader at the time - dohhhhhhhhhhhhh!! 

    This bonus thing will be done once i can be bothered to play them ;) 
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  • loonytoonsloonytoons
    edited August 2011
    I think sky's money is quite safe at the moment. Not everyone who plays the main event plays the mini, also whats the most times any one player has won the main event in a single year? I bet its not double figures (unless anyone can say otherwise) and the chances of them winning the mini on the exact same night as one of their main event wins must be highly unlikely. Im not saying it wont happen, but just extremely occasionally. Others guesses of once a year i would suggest are way off the mark, i reckon every 2 or 3 years if were are lucky. Sky wont mind though, with all that extra rake being paid into the mini each night by players who would not normally play it is more than enough to offset the prizefund.
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  • MachkaMachka
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini:
    In Response to Re: The Double Main & Mini : Yep, 300 players have that 90000/1 chance, so the overall chance of any un-named player in the field doing it remains at 300/1 each evening. Put it this way; somebody will win the ME, that person has a 300/1 chance of winning the mini too. If the field size in main and mini was always 300 you would expect the jackpot to be won once in every 300 days on average, each player having a 90000/1 chance each time they enter assuming equal skill levels. Looking at current average field sizes I predict the jackpot will be won about once a year. 
    Posted by GaryQQQ

    This is spot on and the odds should be about 300/1 on someone winning the jackpot.

    Will it go within a year, who knows, that's variance for you.
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  • scotty77scotty77
    edited August 2011
    It will be won.  The odds aren't as great as people think.

    I would set the line at 250/1.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited August 2011
    my bet is Dohhh wins a free primo seat on the telle on a thursday night comp.

    Dohhh has a little bevvie.

    Dohhh enters mini for a VOLUME approch.


    Dohhhh wins both. And is never heard from again.
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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    It seems we have a discussion on our hands about what the odds are :-))

    may i just throw in that the odds may be increased for someone having a chance by entering a 1st level satalite to get thru to win the main? as a regular satalite player i have to say making it through can be very tough and there are a few of the regular sataliter's that tend to make it through 2 or three times a week to the mains and then buy in the mini (just in case) - to get to that point the sataliter's tend to already be playing in good form rather than coming in a little cold - is there likely to be a beneficial effect to that?

    Opinions most welcome please.

    1. made4game 
    2. elsadog     
    3. supersnedd
    4. gerrard9
    5. the don90
    6. a random sataliter
    7. jawzindawz
    8. drumahai05
    9. kennybad
    10. no one.
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