DYM bubble is it a fold???

Batkin88

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
hellofishy	Small blind		75.00	75.00	3197.50
121285	Big blind		150.00	225.00	2070.00
	Your hole cards	A K
dlbh	Fold
Batkin88	Raise		450.00	675.00	2277.50
hellofishy	All-in		3197.50	3872.50	0.00
121285	Fold
Batkin88	????

Batkin88

Its on the bubble if i fold i will still be 2nd in chips should i be taking the risk here or just folding

angie6108

its a very tricky spot it depends really how much the short stack has for me if he has like 600 - 1000 left then i would fold but if it is close between all 4 players then i would go for it its more likely to be a flip ak vs hes pair i dont mind either way tbh with u but i would fold here and find a better spot 

PiAnOpLaYa

fold, at best u prob flipping - so if you think you have a better then 55% chance of cashing (sometimes he going to show up with AA.KK) if you fold, its an easy fold?
 
Has the villian made this sort of move before?

rancid

call - can't see a reason to fold - stacks are close

Crunchybob

i'd prob call with stack sizes..seen ppl jam so many times with aq aj or any ace on the bubble.

upto u though, no wrong or right thing to do here. go with ur instincts.

jams88

How do your interpret you table image could he be going for a re steal think your at it?

Batkin88

dym's i play ridiculously tight but this player just plays his cards and wouldn't think twice about my possible hands

PiAnOpLaYa

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

dym's i play ridiculously tight but this player just plays his cards and wouldn't think twice about my possible hands
Posted by Batkin88

I dont like his play with any cards here but i think he would have to maek this play with AQ alot for me to want to call it. Do you have any notes on the player?

How have you been getting on with the DYM?

Batkin88

since reading the blog and basically playing by the rules of it and adding a few touches i would say at £5.50 and £11 i am cashing 70% ish prob a little higher on £5.50 but lower levels you will continuosly cash as players are way more aggro down there. But really sticking to £5.50 atm as quit easy money

Lambert180

I think I'd fold here. You're either gonna be MILES behind, a flip, or at best 60/40 and I don't think you need to risk it here.

grantorino

dont really know but I would think its a fold. Whats 4th guys stack? Also if you are folding to a shove raise less

BTW what do people think of openshoving here? Could be really bad, I know nothing about dyms, just wondering it kinda sounds better than raise/folding

TWRAMYEP

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

dont really know but I would think its a fold. Whats 4th guys stack? Also if you are folding to a shove raise less BTW what do people think of openshoving here? Could be really bad, I know nothing about dyms, just wondering it kinda sounds better than raise/folding
Posted by grantorino

Open shoving is definatly unexploitably +EV, It might not be optimal but its what I do

Lambert180

Yeah open shoving is definitely always a good move with these kinda hands.

rancid

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

dont really know but I would think its a fold. Whats 4th guys stack? Also if you are folding to a shove raise less BTW what do people think of openshoving here? Could be really bad, I know nothing about dyms, just wondering it kinda sounds better than raise/folding
Posted by grantorino

+1 Gran

I finks these DYM's are just the mini cash bubble of an MTT tbh so same rules apply - anyone else feel this ?
I just can't see how your raise folding AK, you may aswel be doing this with any 2   - if really your only intention is to steal blinds You must know when you raise if your calling a shove or folding m8'ty

GREGHOGG

 call imo

Dudeskin8

Raise like 320-375 pre imo as 3x just seems to hugh at these limits.

I would fold to shove with />10bb's left.

debdobs_67

Id shove it pre , always do in a spot like this

PiAnOpLaYa

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

Id shove it pre , always do in a spot like this
Posted by debdobs_67

your only going to get called by a hand that beats you then

rancid

Everyone folding AK, is this a new trend.

The blind levels are what ? 5 minutes - your at 75/150 - you haven't got all the time in the world and you have AK

Are we really only waiting for QQ/KK/AA ?

TWRAMYEP

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold??? : your only going to get called by a hand that beats you then
Posted by PiAnOpLaYa

so not the point

PiAnOpLaYa

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold??? : so not the point
Posted by TWRAMYEP

If this was a standard sit and go or a MTT i think its an easy call as the money is weighted towards the top. But it isnt you only need to get in the top 3.

I still think that if you feel there are weaker players left there doesnt seem much point in making this call.

If you fold and go on to cash your happy, if you bubble you wish you made the call

Lambert180

Rancid, you gotta remember, you're not trying to come 1st.

Yes you're right in some ways about it being like a cash bubble in an MTT except in an MTT often a min cash means very little and it's worth going for the win so you can't tighten up around the bubble.

Imagine if it was an MTT bubble, there's been 200 runners (£2 BI, prize pool £400), bubble is 20th, and instead of it being 1st prize being say £180 and then working down from there, instead EVERYONE gets £20, 20th gets £20 and so does 1st place. Do you really think that the bubble would play out the same way? Cos thats the difference between an MTT bubble and a DYM

debdobs_67

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold??? : your only going to get called by a hand that beats you then
Posted by PiAnOpLaYa

Ure assuming the player can play ?? once ive bet like batkin i aint EVER foldin AK

rancid

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

Rancid, you gotta remember, you're not trying to come 1st. Yes you're right in some ways about it being like a cash bubble in an MTT except in an MTT often a min cash means very little and it's worth going for the win so you can't tighten up around the bubble. Imagine if it was an MTT bubble, there's been 200 runners (£2 BI, prize pool £400), bubble is 20th, and instead of it being 1st prize being say £180 and then working down from there, instead EVERYONE gets £20, 20th gets £20 and so does 1st place. Do you really think that the bubble would play out the same way? Cos thats the difference between an MTT bubble and a DYM
Posted by Lambert180

I am confused lolz
I don't really play DYM's but for me it's simples:
Sit out and don't play unless you have the nutz and maybe you will sqeeze through, this just sounds like playing tight on a mtt cash bubble. Or just pick your balls up and play when the blinds get to about 75/150.
When thr blinds get to 75/150 how the hell do you fold AK So basically we only going to be getting it in with AA and our stack is steadily decreasing.
This just sounds like a great time to be shoving with air lol as people are only going to be calling with a tiny percentage of hands so the odds are in our favour )

I will try some and see how I get on lolz

Lambert180

Rancid, to be a consistent winner at DYMs, beat the rake and the rubbish ROI per game, you have to have a pretty high win rate... right??

So like I said in my first post here, if you're against QJ or lower, you're only 60/40 which isn't great considering how often you need to cash in these and how often you'll lose a 60/40.

Then what if it's 22- QQ you're up against, 50/50, again, not good enough cos you need to cash much more than 50% of DYMs.

or better still it's AA/KK and you're a massive underdog.

And lets not forget, if she gets it in here, she's playing for her stack. So you're playing for your stack when a very high % of the time, it's a losing play cos you need to cash about 60% just to break even which you won't do with the above odds.

rancid

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

Rancid, to be a consistent winner at DYMs, beat the rake and the rubbish ROI per game, you have to have a pretty high win rate... right?? So like I said in my first post here, if you're against QJ or lower, you're only 60/40 which isn't great considering how often you need to cash in these and how often you'll lose a 60/40. Then what if it's 22- QQ you're up against, 50/50, again, not good enough cos you need to cash much more than 50% of DYMs. or better still it's AA/KK and you're a massive underdog. And lets not forget, if she gets it in here, she's playing for her stack. So you're playing for your stack when a very high % of the time, it's a losing play cos you need to cash about 60% just to break even which you won't do with the above odds.
Posted by Lambert180

i hear ya !
What strat would you say i should try

edit: just been reading JC's blog on DYM's

Batkin88

I played this hand so bad and called and ran into queens or sumin along them lines i know it should be a fold but multi tabling ruined my game cheers for input and good to see what i thought was a mistake is a mistake

kocklaw

Am with Pianoplaya, an open shove is likely to be called by a hand thats beatin you. you were right to raise and then evaluate.
Whether you call or fold would have to be based on the villians play in earlier rounds. Only you know what he/she was doing during play.

The move is either protecting a low pair or weaker ace than yours or is trapping you with a strong hand AA, KK, QQ or even AQ, AJ. The Villian may believe AQ to winning here and tryin to trap you with it praying for a call.

All you can do is process this information in the few seconds you have and call or fold Neither is a bad play, just apply the logic and hope for the right result.

grantorino

Assuming you are 60 % to win, if you call 60% of time you win .33 of prizepool, 40% you win 0 so $EV is ~0.19 of prizepool

Running rough stacks if you fold thru ICM calculator, you have about $EV of ~0.24 of prizepool. Its possible I used calculator wrongly though

Also if villains fold all worse hands openshoving is going to be pretty good here, esp as we flip with some of calling range

TWRAMYEP

In Response to Re: DYM bubble is it a fold???:

Assuming you are 60 % to win, if you call 60% of time you win .33 of prizepool, 40% you win 0 so $EV is ~0.19 of prizepool Running rough stacks if you fold thru ICM calculator, you have about $EV of ~0.24 of prizepool. Its possible I used calculator wrongly though Also if villains fold all worse hands openshoving is going to be pretty good here, esp as we flip with some of calling range
Posted by grantorino

yep open shoving is good here already did the icm calc.